The point of no return

Recently, one of my familiar, middle -minded entrepreneur, who was always very loyal to the authorities, told me that in his immediate plans - to migrate more civilized from Russia to places. This is a person who, three or four years ago, quite consciously approved the activities of Putin, “United Russia” and the development trends of the country. By the principle: “Do not stick to politics, and no one will touch you. Here Khodorkovsky climbed into politics - and received in full. ” For all my arguments that this very “politics” will get it anyway, even if he runs from her, his friend reacted skeptically. As a person absolutely thinking, he was ready to accept the lack of freedom of speech, corruption, the abolition of elections so far all this has not had a visible influence on economic processes - in any case, in the area to which his business belonged. No real elections? And what's the difference, if there are customers, they pay money, the company works. Corruption? He started the necessary connections that help relatively inexpensively overcome the inertness and greed of the bureaucratic machine. Freedom of speech? Yes, somehow it’s not really necessary-“Anyway, I’m not going to use it, money loves silence.” In addition, corruption and turning of democratic freedoms - phenomena, the negative essence of which theoretically did not deny this friend - he was ready to accept, since he considered them included in the general rules of the game. And for him, the main thing was the presence of general rules. Whether bad, good - it is not important. If only generally accepted and stable. And while it seemed to him that all separate negative facts fit into the concept of the formation of such rules - he was ready to treat them loyally.

This friend is an intellectual businessman. Perhaps not a brilliant forecast, but a person with completely developed logical thinking. And he came to the inconsistent conclusions for the impossibility of doing business in Russia now. One of the more far-sighted, strategically thinking made the same conclusion earlier-for two years, for five, seven years. And he had already left the country. Someone from the simplest areas of business will draw this conclusion over time. But it is clear what he will do. And he will do the same as my friend acts - he will move away from the rapidly modernizing homeland.

Why do thoughts about leaving are beginning to visit Russian citizens in recent years even more than before? After all, it would seem that President Medvedev in his statements during this period made a very clear diagnosis of the system and proposed not something, but modernization as a means of treatment. In my opinion, the point is that some hopes, which the whole active part of society (both economically and politically active) associated Medvedev’s personality, melt more rapidly. And if his deceived hopes could be forgiven by “late” Putin, from which, by and large, no one expected anything good, then they expected from Medvedev. Even despite his role as a “led” in tandem. They still waited. And when the hopes, fed for two years, began to change the disappointment, then this disappointment was all the more worse and hopeless.

When the most adapted, the most stressful, most cynical and practical decide that there is no exit in addition to leaving abroad - this is not even disappointment, this is despair. Despair of the whole country.

Against such a background, an event that should occur the other day acquires an absolutely symbolic meaning. I mean the sentencing to Mikhail Khodorkovsky. I do not want to repeat what has been said thousands of times here: about the political motivation of all this multi-part process, about whether the conscience or the concept of justice in those who directs it once and makes decisions about the outcome. But the practical results for the country of the new conviction Khodorkovsky should be obvious to any more or less logically thinking person. They are such.

First: a cross is placed on all good not only undertakings, but even the ideas and statements of Mr. Medvedev. For example, it will not be possible to talk further about the need to reform the court, without taking this opportunity to demonstrate an example of an independent and objective court.

Second: the trust loan will not come to Non a loan, released by Medvedev with the most active and thinking part of society. But this part is the only support in its main project - in the modernization of the country.

Third: the credit of trust in Medvedev’s modernization efforts from colleague politicians abroad will end. The sympathy for him as a statesman who wants to put Russia on the path of civilized development will end and scatter into the ashes of sympathy. And such sympathies play a significant role in diplomacy and interstate economic relations.

Fourth: Foreign investment will end. No serious businessman will carry money to the country, so openly demonstrating contempt for common sense and any rules.

Fifth: those who until the last tried to stay here, who until the last believed and was ready to support at least weak and slurred, but still Medvedev’s modernization efforts will leave Russia. Everyone who is able to leave the country will try to do this. Representatives of science, culture have been doing this for a long time, now there is a turn of entrepreneurs. Those who are often and hypocritically called the "basis of the future economy" - small and medium -sized businesses.

Sixth: Do not forget that each entrepreneur who leaves Russia leads from here not only financial flows, but also jobs. For each leaving - five, ten, twenty, fifty, one hundred new unemployed. A distant idea of ​​the scale of such a disaster is given by the numbers given in 2008 by the New Gazeta. For the period from 2003 to 2008, up to 440 thousand people left for permanent residence abroad. Among them are 5% of businessmen. I would venture to assume that in the event of a conviction of Khodorkovsky, entrepreneurs among those leaving will become much more as a percentage.

These are only those lying on the surface, the most obvious consequences of a possible conviction of Khodorkovsky. It was not without reason that I made a reservation that the process over the MBH is a symbolic action. Signing, if you like. Giving an answer to the only, but the most important question: is Medvedev ready to do everything in his power to try to pull Russia out of the abyss? To contrast at least something that has been covered by despair? A conviction is a “point of no return”, after which Medvedev is guaranteed only passive observation of how Russia is dying and empty. Even if not through his fault. The story will still ask from it too.

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