family matter

The transfer of power from father to son in the republics of the Arab world is already becoming the rule. Syria was the first to open its account to the “new monarchies” - after the death of Hafez Assad, his youngest son Bashar, a former eye doctor and a person far from politics, became president. This change immediately affected neighboring Lebanon, whose politics over the past 10 years had been under the strict control of the Syrian president - in the first parliamentary elections after Assad's death, the Lebanese opposition won an impressive victory, winning three-quarters of the seats in the country's parliament.

Other leaders of the Arab republics are also preparing their sons to succeed them. The years of rule of the permanent “leader of the Libyan revolution,” Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, who overthrew the monarchy at the head of a group of “free officers,” led the country to international isolation and economic crisis. After the dictator leaves, Libya faces a bloody coup. Fearing civil strife within the ruling elite, Gaddafi intends to transfer power to his son Seif al-Islam.

The president of seemingly prosperous Egypt is also planning to make his son his successor. Former military pilot Hosni Mubarak, who took the post of vice president, found himself at the pinnacle of power after the assassination of President Anwar Sadat by Islamists and led a decisive offensive against Islamic radicals. Having become the leader of the country, Mubarak hastened to get rid of the post of vice president. He has been in power for 20 years, and his son Gamal is a member of the secretariat of the ruling National Democratic Party. In President Gamal's inner circle, they consider Mubarak's most likely successor.

Yemeni President Saleh came from the same army environment as Hussein, Gaddafi and Mubarak. Events in Yemen followed a similar scenario. After the death of the monarch, a group of “free officers” did not allow his son to lead the country. In 1978, Lieutenant Colonel Saleh became the head of the Arab Republic of Yemen. Under him, the unification of the two Yemen, northern and southern, took place, but after this a civil war broke out. Saleh managed to avoid a split in the country by mercilessly suppressing separatists and freezing democratic procedures. Today, Saleh's successor is his son Ahmed.

In the late 50s, Syria, Egypt and Yemen, which do not have common borders, united in a bizarre alliance - the United Arab Republic (UAR) and were the closest allies of the Soviet Union along with Libya and Iraq. When the alliance collapsed, it seemed that each country would go its own way, but now their “genetic” kinship is being revealed. Regime change in all these countries was carried out through a military coup. In Iraq, the overthrow of the Hashemite dynasty in 1958 was accompanied by monstrous cruelty: the mutilated body of Prince Abdul Ilah was dragged through the streets of Baghdad. Having become a republic, Iraq turned into an authoritarian one-party regime, the basis of which was the Ba'ath Party - the Arab Socialist Renaissance Party. The socialist ideology of “free officers,” which the USSR so counted on, turned out to be unviable in the conditions of a rigid clan hierarchy in these countries. The struggle for power in the East traditionally occurs between clans. The victorious clan strengthens the legitimacy of its leader through the cult of personality and the creation of an “inner circle.” This task was entrusted to the security agencies, which received enormous power in all these republics.

It is not surprising that yesterday’s “socialists” and “Marxists” today prefer to transfer power to their sons. While de jure republics, 13 of the 21 Arab countries may well turn into de facto monarchies.