Results of the year: End of stability

A year ago, I called the outgoing year "The last year of Putin's stability."

I was mistaken.

Stability is over.

Even official inflation exceeded the planned level of one and a half times, the influx of private capital, having reached unprecedented intensity, was replaced by the maximum over the years of Putin’s reign, the business lost its usual opportunity to cover the losses from external loans, and the liquidity of the banking system has more than doubled - to an unprecedentedly low level.

Yes, the indicators of economic and investment growth are magnificent - if you forget about the minimum of two -fold understatement of official inflation.

And the growth of real incomes of the population is stunning even when adjusting real inflation: after all, it must be understood that the main part of this growth goes to 3-5 percent of the richest Russians. It is their well -being that reflects hysterical howls of “lifting from the knees”, “world recognition” and “revival”, under the noise of which the economy smoothly entered the spiral of acceleration of inflation and reduction of liquidity.

This spiral will twist all the same.

In fact: the fall in liquidity requires the infusion of money into the economy that has already begun - the additional expenses of the IV quarter of this and the first quarter of the next years will exceed the trillion rubles even without the promised double increase in the salary of state employees, and 180 billion rubles. From this trillion are already aimed at supporting the three largest state banks.

Large -scale infusion of money carried out in conditions of total corruption, without minimal financial control and in the absence of large production projects, is guaranteed to accelerate inflation. It will not be an exaggeration to argue that since February, inflation for the first time in many years will again become a monetary, that is, caused by excessive money mass in circulation, and not just the arbitrariness of monopolies.

But the acceleration of inflation in itself undermines liquidity - and creates the need for new cash injection, dispersing it even more.

Breaking this vicious circle, suffocating farm, is not difficult. It is enough with standard measures “from the textbook” to limit the arbitrariness of monopolies, to reduce transaction costs of business with restriction of corruption (also standard measures) and launch a number of large projects to modernize infrastructure that change the entire business climate and give a new impetus to all economic development. As the Chinese say, “the road gives rise to wealth”-and in our country the word “road” does not even correspond to what connects Moscow and St. Petersburg.

But another state is needed for changes. The bureaucracy that is ruling by us, this new, power oligarchy, considers Russia at best as a “trophy space”, and all the perose conversations about patriotism in its lips are nothing more than a ritual formula that precedes the fashionable countries of another blood billion.

Enforced by the Political and Commercial Assets and increasingly flashing intrigues, it is organically not capable of managing, and therefore inevitably overturn Russia into a fierce systemic crisis, in which it will perish.

Either one, or with Russia.

And the people who felt a chilling breath of inflation in their cozy forced offices, realized this for the first time and first thought about this this fall.

What is the appointment of “parties made to the distribution of deputy mandates” (according to the minted formulation of a member of “United Russia”), to which the “Elections” anachronism, the Lord with you, are applied to the old memory!

What the appointment of the future president, what games in the premiere, what is the “sandpaper” on the Schwarzman, what Lugovoi as the co-chairman of the Russian-British inter-parliamentary commission-the system goes out of control at the time of completion of its formation!

But the state does not stand on lies and corruption, like Solzhenitsynsky village without a righteous man, and no geopolitical Cialis (especially the old -fashioned Viagra in the form of permanent purposes of internal enemies) does not support the “vertical of power” that is limited before the eyes.

One person replaced the state by himself, and at the time of the completion of this substitution, by a misunderstanding, because of a weakness of character, he has to go out, and until the very last moment he does not know what label to put on himself, and with horror he feels himself in the crossing of the greedy eyes of his slaves. Waiting for when he finally stumbles - because for a slave a new weak master is always better than the old strong.

But you will not envy the new president either.

He enters the coveted high office, and the void opens under his feet.

For the accustomed to steal is not able to lead, and corruption reached the Putin state and Putin's stability, like ants - rotten stump. They will not withstand the increase in the internal difficulties generated by their own idleness and their own self -interest, even if to overcome these difficulties it is enough just to fade a textbook.

The sweaty curses of the current “masters of life” are accustomed to completely different operations - according to the classics of modern political economy, “bend and torment”, not to mention “put in your pocket”.

But in addition to internal problems on the horizon, external ones loomed. The year 2010 is inexorably approaching, when global investments that poured into the oil industry and develop alternative energy sources since 2002 will bring the result and reduce oil prices. The evidence of this will force the market participants to play “ahead of the lead” - and as a result of this game, oil can become cheaper even earlier, already in 2009, when the democrats that are not interested in expensive oil will come to power in the United States.

And how they will relate to the “souvenir democracy”, the frank stem of one of the authoritative democratic councils, who in the official report, described Putin’s murder on the steps of the Cathedral of Christ the Savior and the execution of the mayors of both Russian capitals for billions of embezzlement. It is characteristic that not a single observer in Russia was outraged by the accusations of these worthy Putins of such embezzlement. Now, if they were called "millionth", they would probably be offended.

For the state.

Against the backdrop of a single-Russia's political correct report of an analyst-republican (according to which Medvedev will be a successful copy of Putin and transmit the power of another successful copy of it, as a result of which Russia will continue the progressive movement towards democracy) this scenario has become a simple demonstration of the fact that the democrats will not take either Putin or his successor. They are nothing more than characters from a joke-or a comic book about Tom and Jerry, if someone is offended.

They introduced these charming animals at the Big Eight Summit?

To treat them, with all their oil vanity, they will be accordingly, as they have already been shown - and this is an additional factor in destabilization, which will begin to operate in 2009.

In 2008, the expanding mortgage crisis will again hit us (which we must talk about separately) and the rise in the cost of food caused by the production of biofuel instead of food, reorientation of speculative capital from mineral raw materials for agricultural products and an increase in China's consumption.

To imagine that the hero of the "Medvedev villages" of national projects will be able to do not only cope with these problems, but at least to realize them, of course, in human powers.

But it is better to write about this to professional fantasiers-some of the compilers of the official forecasts of the socio-economic development of Russia. A simple science fiction writer or a storyteller will not cope: they are still slavishly committed to common sense.

Russia needs to prepare for the systemic crisis: if it finds a healthy part of the society, which is now deprived of any political representation (the so -called opposition, alas, has become an ordinary character in the theater of political shadows - just playing the side of the stage), by surprise just like the state that decays, and our Russia and our Russia will have very few.

Understanding this is the main result of 2007.

Author - Director of the Institute of Problems of Globalization, Doctor of Economics