Quiet farewell to parity

Last Friday, First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov caused quite a stir among foreign journalists and defense analysts (that is, those who, by virtue of their position, are obliged to take seriously the words of the then possible candidate for successor). Speaking at an event dedicated to the 50th anniversary of the government’s Military-Industrial Commission, Ivanov stated the need to maintain nuclear parity with the United States: “Military potential, and even more so nuclear potential, must be appropriate if we want to be on par or simply independent. The weak are not loved, they are not listened to and they are offended, and when we have parity, they talk to us differently.”

The intention of a high-ranking official to maintain parity (that is, relative equality) in the nuclear forces of Russia and the United States looks rather strange. It is no secret that our nuclear arsenal is rapidly aging - entire divisions of the Strategic Missile Forces have to be disbanded. It is impossible to put a similar number of missiles on combat duty. As a result, our strategic nuclear forces already have several hundred fewer warheads than the American ones. And this gap will widen. There is considerable doubt that by January 1, 2012, Russia will have 1,700 warheads, as the Strategic Offensive Capabilities Treaty allows it.

In my opinion, nothing terrible will happen in this case: strategic stability has long been no longer ensured by the equality of nuclear arsenals. But the Kremlin does not even think of accepting this reality (at least publicly). That is why there is a furious race to put the new Bulava naval missile on combat duty.

However, from the text of Ivanov’s speech it follows that we are not talking about building up nuclear weapons at all: Russia will limit itself to producing 6-7 Topol-M missiles per year. In essence, this is a quiet farewell to the pretense of maintaining parity. Let me remind you that back in February of this year, Ivanov, as Minister of Defense, promised: “... to put on combat duty 34 silo launchers and command posts, as well as 66 Topol-M ground mobile complexes.” It is easy to calculate that in this case 12-13 missiles should be produced per year, that is, twice as many as Ivanov says.

At the same time, one cannot help but notice that an amazing metamorphosis is happening to Sergei Borisovich. At one time they said that, acting by trial and error, Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin received the most expensive economic education in the world. Now Sergei Ivanov has entered the same economic school. The invisible hand of the market suddenly began to limit the ambitions of the militarist. At the same meeting, the First Deputy Prime Minister reports: “In the first half of the year, production volume in the defense-industrial complex increased by 15.6 percent compared to the same period last year. The production of weapons and military equipment increased by 23.1 percent, including in the radio-electronic complex - by 34.7 percent, in the aviation industry - by 39.1 percent, in the conventional weapons industry - by 73.9 percent." At the same time, Ivanov promises that next year the state defense order will more than triple - from the current three hundred billion to one trillion.

It would seem that we should be happy. But the first vice suddenly begins to complain: “Now the problem is not money. We offer them (enterprises) money, but on condition: in eight months a new tank, in nine months a new plane - can you? Those who are honest say “no”, those who are more fraudulent say “let’s try.” He is echoed by Vladislav Putilin, deputy on the Military Technical Commission: “We produce 100 tanks and 18 aircraft a year.” The industry is simply not able to digest the allocated funds. And Sergei Ivanov, having wasted billions of budget funds, has already realized this. But at the same time he continues to fight for the allocation of hundreds of billions - in order to waste this money as well - even an understanding of economic processes does not cancel the grasping reflex of Russian officials. It is also possible that Sergei Borisovich already knew on Friday that he would not be announced as the successor and realized that it was time to hurry.