The results of the week. Return of stagnation

“The task of ensuring sustainable economic development remains, where the key factor is to increase labor productivity and modernize existing industries, the creation of highly efficient jobs, the training of modern experts,” said Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev at a meeting on the implementation of the May decrees of the president of last year. Yes, God would with them - with labor productivity, and modernization, and with highly effective jobs. The economy simply does not grow, neither innovative, nor raw material, nor highly effective, nor low -efficient. At the end of November, analysts wondered, the Ministry of Economic Development will once again reduce the forecast for GDP growth for this year or will not be. And now, please. The head of the department, Alexei Ulyukaev, reduced the forecast from the previous 1.8% growth for this year to 1.4%. At the same time, the next two years the forecast has decreased: the economic growth for 2014 has worsened to 2.5% from 3%, for 2015 - to 2.8% from 3.1%. In words, Ulyukaev admitted that the country is in a state of stagnation, which will last next year.

And the most offensive is that it is impossible to blame any global crisis, for the absence of one. None of the gloomy forecasts for this year have been realized. Europe is gradually getting out of the debt crisis, and no one talks about the collapse of the currency union. The American default also did not happen, although no one was seriously considering this option. There was no American crisis due to a reduction in budget expenditures. The economy, despite the ongoing confrontation of the Democrats and Republicans, is restored. American stock indices with enviable regularity update historical maximums (unlike Russian, not able to not only conquer pre -crisis heights, but even reach levels of 2011 or 2012). Oil prices remain high, but even they are not able to support the ruble that demonstrates record weakness for the dollar and especially to the euro.

So Russian economic problems have internal sources. And these problems have been pouring recently, as from a cornucopia. The November index of business activity in industry indicates that this sector is in a state of recession. And the metallurgists, who built their empires for borrowed funds, are not at all capable of paying debts . The government hold meetings on the help of the drowning sword of Igor Zyuzin and in full seriousness the idea of ​​buying Oleg Deripaska aluminum for 50 billion a year in a specially created state fund from Rusal Oleg Deripaska.

In the banking sector, things are not much better. Following the “master bank” license licenses smaller credit organizations, and the Central Bank diligently, but not very convincingly refutes rumors about the presence of a “black list”. The investors are in a state close to hysteria, not knowing who to believe. Many take deposits from private banks. At the same time, a bubble has pouted in the consumer lending market, and the quality of loans is rapidly worsening. The head of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina last week said that the volume of overdue loans of the population reached 435 billion rubles. In the first 10 months of the year, this amount increased by almost 40%, while the volume of loans issued increased by the same time by 24.3%.

In a word, something is not glued with a Russian government with an innovative breakthrough. With accelerated growth, which was supposed to provide massive state investigations and an increase in government bonds, things are also unimportant. But in the political field, victory for victory. From the latter - the refusal of Ukraine from the association with the European Union (after the “customs maneuvers” launched by Russia) and the accession of Armenia to the Customs Union. In the latter case, Russian taxpayers will have to fork out and pay for loyalty - this is one of the Soviet traditions that are being rebuilt now. It is no worse than the tradition of spending on “megaprojects” oil exports that seem to be inexhaustible for the time being. The Olympiad, BAM, political prisoners, confrontation with the West - we already had all this, and relatively recently. The current situation is increasingly reminiscent of the times of the Brezhnev stagnation, which poured into a systemic crisis.

Photo by ITAR-TASS/ Sergey Zhukov