In society

Assadov caftan

December 13, 2016 Alexander Golts

The exchange of medals “For the release of Palmyra” for medals “For the capture of Aleppo” is made in the award department of the Ministry of Defense. We recommend not rushing. According to informed sources, both medals will soon be changed to the Hmeimim defense honorary sign.

I do not exclude that such ads will appear in the military press. The Kremlin propagandists to the maximum used the success of Assad forces, supported by Russian aviation, who took Palmyra in the spring. It really was impressive. The ancient city, whose monuments were destroyed by barbarians from the Islamic State, returned to the civilized world. Sapers for cleansing were immediately sent there. And after them, scientists - to determine the prospects of recovery. Apotheosis was the performances of the musicians beloved by Putin in the liberated city. Symphony orchestra among ancient monuments - well, what other evidence is needed that Russia is extremely disinterested in the international arena?

And now the disgrace happened. In almost a day, terrorists regained Palmyra. The Syrian army fled, leaving the enemy rich trophies, including armored vehicles. Russian pilots, who made over 60 sorties, could not turn the situation. Experts are amazed, as it happened that our military, whose drones, as they assured, control the entire Syrian territory, overslept the concentration of five thousand militants. Intelligence, which until recently had the ability to immediately determine the national affiliation of destroyed terrorists, did not see the advance of the essential forces of the enemy. The most experienced Yuri Baluevsky, the former chief of the General Staff, does not hide surprise: “Whatever the Syrian army, but not to track the concentration of enemy forces in the Palmyra region ... This is wrong. It shouldn't be so. And my colleagues who are there - I also do not understand them. The Syrians may have no such opportunities as ours. But where we looked ... "

In fact, there is nothing to be surprised. Based on political considerations (the process of transferring power in Washington and the uncertainty of future US policy give Moscow freedom), it was necessary to quickly take Aleppo. Meanwhile, despite the powerful aviation support, there is no one to fight for Assad on Earth. As far as one can understand, all resources of replenishment of the government army have been exhausted during the years of the Civil War. Iranian and Palestinian "volunteers", as well as units of the right terrorists from the Lebanese Hezbollah, are not enough. All reserves were transferred to Aleppo. Obviously, the means of Russian intelligence were also moved there (whose opportunities, I suspect, were somewhat exaggerated by domestic television). There was no strength left to cover the palmura at all.

What terrorists from the Islamic State were not slow to use. Obviously, the Syrian war is no different from the usual “partisan war”, in which, over the past decades, not a single regular army has been able to defeat the semi -war formations. The fact is that in the absence of the front line, the regular army weakens itself as a result of every victory - trying to control the territories taken. And the semi-war formations, not connected by the need to protect some territories, have freedom of maneuver and strike where there are few government troops.

Unfortunately, political hypocrisy sometimes negatively affects the military strategy. The Kremlin climbed into the Syrian Civil War is not at all to fight world terrorism. He tried to solve two problems at the same time. Firstly, to force the West to any dialogue after the annexation of Crimea and the hybrid war in the Donbass. Secondly, to protect the dictator, which, according to Putin, has the legal right to tyrant his people. Therefore, Russia in Syria is fighting not so much with terrorists from the “Islamic state” (the liberation of Palmyra in the spring is rather an exception) as with the enemies of Assad. The consequences, as we see, were not slow to affect.

Since Assad will not have fresh strength, after a couple of successful operations of militants, Russian strategists will come to Putin and try to convince him of the need for a large -scale ground operation. It seems that the one whose script lost during the Center-2015 exercises. Then, I remind you, according to the script, the country, "captured by terrorists", occupied the 100,000th Russian group. The Russian military leadership thinks out this option. In the Duma there is a bill allowing the Ministry of Defense to conclude short -term contacts for service in the army. In practice, this means recruiting the required amount of cannon fodder for a specific military operation. As a result, Russia will finally get bogged down in Syrian sands. After all, generals always promise an imminent victory ...

Photo: Syria. Palmyra. A fragment of the Great Colonnade in the historical part of the city. The architectural museum complex of Palmyra is an object of the UNESCO World Heritage. Valery Sharifulin/TASS