In the economy

Dreams of growth

May 1, 2013 Maxim Blot

The Minister of Economic Development Andrei Belousov took the Russian economy to structural reforms for three more, a maximum of five years. Then the “window of possibilities” will close, oil prices will drop by 20-30 percent, and what it threatens, everyone can guess himself.

In the meantime, the “window is open”, Belousov offers to throw all reserves into this window, abandoning both the reserve fund and the national welfare fund. True, they will not be enough for a year, since the “structural perestroika” will require about 7.5% of GDP per year. This means that if the government decides to use the recipes of the Minister of Economics, you will have to come to terms with a budget deficit at the level of 6-7% of GDP, which you will have to cover, either by increasing the public debt or printing unsecured rubles.

The minister offers to spend money on the development of infrastructure, modernization of the army, education and health care, the accelerated development of the Far East, Transbaikalia, the south of Russia and Kaliningrad, as well as to improve business climate and get rid of oil dependence, no matter what two points mean.

In parallel, Belousov advocates for the departure of the state from the economy, implying by the sale of stake packages of the already very working AO, such as Rosneft or Sberbank. And you also need to maintain nonsense and small business.

In essence, nothing new. Unless the appetites have grown significantly. Even the idea to abolish the reserve fund and the national welfare fund already sounded from the lips of different rank of officials of the Ministry of Economic Development, albeit not at the college of the department in the presence of the prime minister, but at various kinds of conferences and forums. Criticism once again proposed by Belousov’s grandiose program also sounded repeatedly. Actually, Kudrin's departure from the government was the result of this kind of criticism.

To discuss this semblance of a program, if possible, then only theoretically, since the country simply does not have resources for its implementation. Fortunately, no - the window slammed shut. The budget is already scarce, the economy stagnates, and attempts to occupy 6-7% of GDP per year will not be successful. If anyone else will give such money, then only at wild interest.

It is serious that in three to five years you can build infrastructure, master unprofitable territories, reform education and healthcare and get the first fruits of these reforms, and at the same time defeat China, Japan and Germany in the global engineering market, bringing the growth rate of the Russian economy to 6-7% per year, can only or in the terminology of early Putin, or a person who is a person who is a person who is a person who is a person who is a person who is a person who is a person who is a person who is a person who is a person who is a person who is a person who is a person who is He understands very well that his plans cannot come true.

And if Medvedev, by virtue of his limitation, could absolutely sincerely believe in his modernization, now brought by Belousov to logical absurdity, then the Minister of Economic Development cannot but understand what needs the impossible. The question is why, in this case, the air shake.

The answer is simple. The Minister of Economic Development is the first person who is directly responsible for the state of the Russian economy. And everything that has been happening in the last couple of years with the Russian economy - the fruits of the activity of Belousov and his like -minded people. Now the economy is on the verge of a recession, which means it is better to offer in advance an incredible scenario of reforms in order to run and scream at every corner later: “Here, we warned you, said that it would be bad and no one listened to us.” Then (and even better in advance, before everything goes very badly) you can go to a quiet and irresponsible place in the presidential administration - write programs and criticize your successor for trying poorly.

Meanwhile, structural reforms to the Russian economy are really vital - Belousov is right in this. We need the modernization of the army. Not the rearmament of the millionth (at least on paper) by the number of the army, but its radical reduction and the creation of a mobile, modern and combat -ready army. This will release scarce resources. And the state’s departure from the economy should not consist of the sale of minority packages in state-owned companies, but in getting rid of a gigantic number of FSUPs, MUPs and other state-owned enterprises, subsidized state structures hanging unbearable cargo in the neck of unpopular raw material companies, which, even in the worst times, were fed by the country.

Graphics of Mikhail Zlatkovsky / Zlatkovsky.ru