Once again about football

June 12, 2012 will be in the afternoon, interesting in many respects. It is clear that this is the day of the holiday, very imminent, paradoxically, the authorities, longing for the former imperial greatness, but very close to the democratic (and not only) opposition. This year, the holiday promises to be even more special. Firstly, mass opposition shares are outlined on this day. Secondly, it is on June 12 that the European Football Championship will be held in the national team of Poland and Russia. The game will be held on the Poles field, and the Russian authorities promised to show it on large screens, which would be specially installed in the center of Moscow by this day. Does it remind you of anything? Yes to me yes.

10 years ago, during the World Football Championship, the first was implemented and, if my memory is not changing, while the last experience of demonstrating matches on large screens in the center of Moscow. Then the team of the housewife of the championship - Japan played with the Russian national team. And the Japanese won 1: 0. The giant screen was installed on Manezhnaya, and there, immediately after the end of the match, it occurred in a pogrom. Fans, furious fans, beat windows, burned cars, killed a musician from China.

Then many authors who considered this situation drew attention to the almost complete absence of representatives of the “order protection authorities” in such an explosive place (there were 20 police officers) and that the surprised leaders of fan groups in Chorus stated that they did not accept any participation in their “formation”, and they did not know the most active participants in the riots.

They also paid attention to the following important circumstance. For several weeks before the tragic events, the Duma, then still really multi-party and more or less independent, did not adopt the bill “on the fight against extremism” introduced by the government, and immediately after the described events occurred right under the windows of the lower house of the Russian parliament, impressive deputies voted “for”.

Of course, the relationship of these events was only alleged. But, you must admit that the followed by political and law enforcement practice has clearly demonstrated that the ugliness, repaired by the “fans”, meet much less counteraction than the main objects of persecution of the notorious law on extremism are activists of the political opposition. Moreover, it was not difficult to notice that the football fans, no matter how sometimes they behave (and in this environment they meet, or even rudeness and hooliganism in the criminal sense of the word, and racism, fights, turning into the battle, sometimes leading to human casuals), are “socially close” to the authorities and, moreover, the authorities are trying, sometimes not not for the same, often, often noted. Use them for their selfish purposes, primarily on the streets and squares. Perhaps that is why the pseudo -amateurs of football easily and silently forgive massive violations of public order, including riot police, pogroms of stadiums, the use of pyrotechnics, in short, all that the Kremlin qualified as “socially dangerous” non -indifferent citizens of Russia would have long been a long time to flanch.

Thus, we summarize the known facts.

1. On June 12, the mass procession of the opposition in the center of Moscow should take place.

2. On the same day, in the same center, the authorities organize a comparable in mass collection of fans to view the match “Poland-Russia”.

3. A similar event at one time was used as a trigger in expanding the “struggle against extremism”.

4. The probability of repeating an unfavorable outcome for the Russian national team, given that the owners of the championship, this time, the Poles, again play in their field, not only exists, but qualitatively different from zero.

5. The date itself - June 12 - is very symbolic for both the opposition and for the authorities.

6. The authorities quite obviously headed the course to tighten the reaction to protest actions - there are amendments to the law on rallies and demonstrations, and a criminal case regarding the events of May 6, and the arrests of participants in these events, and an endless series of administrative arrests, and other and other.

7. Information has already received that the Moscow City Hall refuses to coordinate the opposition march route on June 12 on Tverskaya Street and offers Frunze embankment. If you compare this with the words of the officials of the same institution, according to which the screen (screens) will be installed in Gorky Park, it turns out that fans and oppositions can not only be near each other, but literally at a distance of direct visibility.

8. As shown not only by the events of 2002, but also the subsequent ones, the fan mass is replete with both agents of the influence of the authorities and direct provocateurs from the special services.

9. According to the opposition activists of the opposition that unconditionally deserved confidence, a relatively noticeable number of provocateurs from the same special services was introduced into the action on May 6, 2012. Practice shows that the police in uniform are also ready for unlawful and provocative actions at any time.

10. Any kind of events and incidents that can be interpreted as mass riots will be interpreted in this way, and will be accused of their organizations mainly or only exclusively opposition.

Therefore, I am very worried about how our action (or shares) will pass on June 12. Naturally, I do not agitate at all for not going or at least think about not to walk. On the contrary, we should be unusually many and we must be calm, designed and ready for any surprises. Our security measures should be maximum, and colleagues, for nicopicious, are attentive as never before.

Of course, I understand that everything written by me largely resembles conspiracyology, but, firstly, if you have paranoia, this does not mean that you are not persecuted. And secondly, conspiracyology in this case is not so inappropriate, because the thinking of the current Russian rulers in all senses is conspicated-they tend to see conspiracies and intrigues around themselves, and they themselves love to arrange and weave them. As the Strugatsky once wrote, if in our house it smelled of gray, we simply must assume that somewhere nearby the features with horns showed, and take all the necessary measures, up to the production of holy water on an industrial scale. It smells of gray in our house for a very long time.