Valdai suffering

“When he enters, they all get up.
Some are in service, others - from happiness. "

Joseph Brodsky

Dear colleagues!

I would not write anything about the last report released on behalf of the Valdai discussion club under the heading “Russia: not to miss good luck. Development scenarios. " In the times of my distant youth, in such cases they said: "Still grind!" Yes, and would not read. But then such a strange thing happened. At the very beginning of the text, the eyes caught on a long list of surnames, in which there were many people who retained my respect. Therefore, I decided to look into the text, not without curiosity ... and came into quiet bewilderment. There is nowhere to put stigma - neither intellectual nor ethical. What does this have to do with people quite respectable?

Returning to the first page, I realized that this was not a list of authors. It turned out that there are some "authors, thank many prominent experts and thinkers who have prepared their thoughts for theses and participated in the work on the text." First of all, L.M. Grigoryev (on his initiative, the text came to me), F.A. Lukyanov and V.A. Ryzhkov, as I understand it - for a significant contribution to the preparation of the text. Then there is a long list in the alphabetical order of experts who participated in discussions, I bring not everyone, but whose presence on the list hooked me: Adamishin, Arkhangelsk, Delyagin, Dmitriev (M.E.), foreigners, Collon, Fedotov, Yurgens. The authors expressed special thanks to S.A. Karaganov, "many of the ideas of which formed the basis of theses."

The whole charm of the situation was that the authors who generously scatter gratitude were no! Nowhere in the text are their surnames. The report is anonymous, and the battery of the titans of thought, which we owe, therefore, this text, was released forward. At the same time, the text itself is the gross manipulation and provocation. The rudeness is so egregious that it negates the manipulative potential of the text.

Honestly, I was furious, because I suspected that most people from the above list simply did not read the text and that prominent thinkers should be helped out with the help of education - a favorite venture of the Russian intelligentsia. I’m not sure that the result was a rescue operation as a result, but an open letter broke down, the text of which controlled me to a greater extent than I did. So.

Let's start with “good luck”, which we are invited not to miss the report in the headline. After all, the manipulation begins already with the title in which the verdict is pronounced in advance: everything is glorious, of course, there are problems, but in general - just luck. Therefore, the main thing is not to miss this luck.

Among the people with whom I am proud, there is Yakov Ilyich Gilinsky, the greatest criminologist, deviantologist. Leningrad. By the nature of professional activity, he works extremely scrupulous with statistics. Therefore, I, without hesitation, and with its permission, give a solid quote from the article by Yakov Ilyich in the “Independent Gazeta” of November 18 (I removed several lines of an ironic shade):

“In addition, according to various publications, Russia occupies:

1st place in the world in absolute terms of the population;

1st place in the world in the number of suicides among the elderly;

1st place in the world in the number of suicides among children and adolescents;

1st place in the world in terms of the number of divorces and children born out of marriage (well, this is not the worst);

1st place in the world in the number of children abandoned by parents;

1st place in the world in mortality from diseases of the cardiovascular system;

1st place in the world in terms of patients with psyche diseases;

1st place in the world in terms of human trafficking;

1st place in the world in terms of abortion and maternal mortality;

1st place in the world in terms of heroin consumption (21% of world production);

1st place in the world in terms of sales of strong alcohol;

1st place in the world in the consumption of alcohol and alcohol-containing products (18 liters of pure alcohol, in second place France is about 14 liters; according to WHO, with a soul consumption of more than 8 liters, irreversible degradation of the nation begins);

1st place in the world in terms of growth rate of smoking;

1st place in the world in terms of the number of smoking children;

1st place in the world in terms of HIV-infected growth rate;

1st place in the world in terms of a plane crash (13 times more than the average-IN-level level);

1st place in the world in pollution of the environment as a result of torque burning of gas;

1st place in the world in terms of the number of accidents (on average annually dies as a result of an accident 33–35 thousand people, wounded-250–280 thousand people).

The 154th place of 178 in the ranking of perception of corruption (Transparency International, 2010) along with Papua-New Guinea, Kenia, Laos and Tajikistan). ”

Lenya, this result of the Putin ten -year -old you, together with anonymous authors, propose to call a success that cannot be missed in any way? Misha, is it not embarrassed that none of these problems was reflected in the report?

But let's move on to the text. I will not analyze it with a continuous; I will take only a few quotes, quite typical, and comment on. But before, several general considerations that will later be illustrated by quotes.

The technology of both lies and manipulations in the text is ordinary for standard Kremlin crafts, I have already written about it. First: the diagnosis is absent and replaced by an anamnesis, that is, problems are mentioned, but the reasons for their appearance are not discussed. The lack of a diagnosis is very convenient: you can prescribe any treatment that is deadly or useless. Second: the anamnesis itself should make a slight impression of credibility. Only against the backdrop of beliefs can the necessary ideas be implicitly introduced. Third: already realized threats are constantly posed under the guise of threats of potential, and in a humanely softened form. Fourth: The text contains several ideas that form the essence and content of manipulations. The introduction of ideas is carried out by multiple repetition and by clutch their obvious statements (a sort of quinin in the glaze). Fifth: the theses are obviously controversial are served as self -evident through uncomplicated linguistic tricks or by immersing these theses into the appropriate context. A typical example is the headline of the report discussed above.

There are differences from previous manipulations. All of them (differences) reflect one in common: a change in public moods and positions in the country. Firstly, anonymity is notable, which was not particularly practiced before. The manipulators have an instinct, they feel: the wind has become hot; Therefore, they hide.

Secondly, the glorification of the achievements of the Putin regime was less intrusive, old mythologems are forgotten: it is impossible, for example, to sing stability and at the same time formulate at least a plausible anamnesis. Instead, another idea is introduced (six references in the text): the mission and the main achievement of the regime - restoration of controllability (I will return to this find below). Another imposed topic: unprecedented personal freedoms, which for the first time in the history of Russia are used by its happy citizens. At the same time, it is not essential that personal freedoms arose before Putin’s descent to the Kremlin land. But then you can ignore political freedoms, economic freedoms and all rights provided for by the Constitution.

Thirdly, it was not so frenzied as before, the 90s are defeated. Instead, another target is chosen, which can be conditionally called "liberal democracy."

And a new idea of ​​returning handling, and attacks on democracy are needed in the text to manipulate scenarios. What the authors propose can be called “demiurgocracy” with Putin as such a demiurge, with a naked torso and arms occupied by amphoras. The task of the authors is to substantiate the need to preserve the demiurge on his own so that he (and only he) can realize the “optimal scenario”. This is the super -task, for the sake of which the previous text is saturated with an imitation of plausible scenes. First, the reader must believe the text, then to believe the main conclusion.

That's the whole drama. Now turn to quotes. I don't want to multiply them. If offended authors suddenly come, I am ready to publicly postpone with them in any audience, having gone in more detail throughout the text. I can swap with prominent thinkers. Here I will limit myself to a few examples.

"1.3.1.4. Two Chechen wars with their huge victims became a fee for a relatively “smooth” exit from the Revolution of the 1990s. Moscow eventually won, becoming the only one of the great powers that won the war at the beginning of the 21st century. What indirectly strengthened her international positions proved the willingness to fight for her interests. ”

It's nice to find out again that we are a great power. But doubts about the term “victory” are gloomy. It is some kind of strange (apparently, it is accepted in the 21st century by the great powers). The winner pays tribute to the defeated. On the defeated territory, the laws of the victorious power do not apply. And the nucers of the loser side behave in the capital of the winners as in a city captured by the attack.

"1.3.1.5. The post -revolutionary recovery had another price. The bureaucracy, as it were, received a carte blanche for theft, provided that it will contribute to the reconstruction of the country. As a result, controllability was revived, the country has again gained subjectivity, but corruption has taken on a system -forming character. ”

A striking tirade, isn't it? Here we enjoy agreeing on card-blanche for theft, about corruption, which took on a system-forming nature. But in this shell we are offered to swallow the thesis about the restoration of controllability. I'm not talking about subjectivity. From the text, it is obvious, her name is Kleptocracy. I do not argue. But manageability ... The matter is not even in the inexorable law, according to which the growth of corruption is always a consequence of the fall in the effectiveness of management. But what about the facts? With a vertical that spits on its top? With the Ministry of Internal Affairs? With courts who do not follow the laws adopted on the initiative of the president? With manual control, with the help of which douumvirs can solve one problem from rolling thousands? Still list?

“1.8. ... a factor that contributed to the effectiveness of the Putin’s turn was that he relied on a corporation, which he also intensified, redistributing the resources in its favor. But the “vertical of power”, more or less authoritarian regime, was predetermined by the level of development of society, the economy, and the need to stop the collapse of the country. ”

See? The same technique again. First, the authors boldly stigmatize Putin for the “redistribution of resources” in favor of their corporation, giving the effectiveness of this “turn”. And after this, without any logical connection, we are being injected with a shameless lie. The society in question defended its democratic rights in August 1991; It was free Russian business that pulled the country out of the economic pit after the default of August 1998. The collapse of the country was stopped by Yeltsin in 1992. The authoritarian regime was predetermined by narrow -minded grayness, which had reached the authorities, to steal more by their desire, if you use the terminology of brave anonymous authors.

Mikhail Aleksandrovich, there it is written about society, about civilian, including that you are designed to play. Do you agree with such assessments?

You won’t believe it, but the next quote that I will give is taken from the section “The state of society”. This warning is enough, and the comments are superfluous. This technique - the sins of the authorities to put on society - for many years. He appeared along with the appearance of the category of society.

"3.4. ... The level of political morality is rapidly reduced, the principles of meritocracy are not observed. ”

The next section on the authorities is the shortest and most inexpressive. The traditional one begs: about the deceased either good or nothing. And you can combine, as in the next quote:

"4.3. Power has legitimacy, mainly personified, which is gradually reduced. True, for now, probably, not so much as to threaten the stability of the system. ”

The same short economic section makes, it must admit, the impression of adequacy, bordering, however, on apocalyptic:

"5.6. In general, the economic context is more gloomy than political or public. ”

It is only that the author of this fragment had in mind that political and social context that we are drawn in this report. But what is the person who will think that we are talking about real life!? How does he know what is even worse in the economy?

The section describing the scenarios is not of great interest, because this is just a small prelude to the climax - the “optimal scenario”. To evaluate the glaring mediocrity of this part of the text, I will tire the reader with another short quote. Here the authors evaluate the script they themselves, called the anonymous "liberal democratic reforms"

"6.3.4.2. ... His weakness is non -Russian systematicity and complexity. ”

Therefore, if something is more complicated, then this is not about us. By the way, they are further about patriotic education. By the way, since ancient times it was believed that spells, devoid of any meaning, help against evil spirits. Just our case.

Well, here we have reached the main thing for which all this slurry, implicated on lies and rough manipulations, is started - to the “optimal script”. It is on it that everyone should come across, and restless hearts - calm down. And here the anonyms inspired, as we were reported to us, prominent thinkers, open to Nude.

"8.1.1. ... the 1990s were a period of revolutionary way out of communism and militarism. 2000s-counter-revolutionary restoration of controllability. But twenty years have been lost to create effective institutions, without which modern development is impossible. ”

Here a very important motive spent. For the past few years, he has become one of the main ones. The meaning is this: our joyful achievements are the result of the last decade; Our problems have twenty -year roots. Thus, instead of previously fashionable direct attack on the time of the “Yeltsin chaos”, we get such a sweet position, under the larva of quasi -objectivity killing three hares. Firstly, the Putin regime still attributes all the problems on his predecessors. Secondly, conformists or lysobags receive a convenient tablet to remove cognitive dissonance (then everything was also vile). And thirdly, the problems acquire “objective fundamental”, explaining their stability and justifying the extension of the time of being of the current regime, which needs extra time to solve these difficult problems. But with the institutes, a bummer turns out. It is difficult to refute the obvious fact in an open dialogue that the 90s were the time of the creation of new institutions, and the zero were distinguished by their systematic destruction. Dear colleagues, which of you would like to object to me. Mikhail Egonovich, how are you? And you, Igor Yuryevich? Do you not share the revelation contained in the above quote?

"8.2. The main goal of political modernization is the beginning of a systemic fight against corruption, which helped the revolution, then to restore controllability. ”

Here again the same motive for the unification of the two periods is a single problem. But the point here is not this manipulative joke. I am not far and primitive as a thinker, and in corruption I do not understand a damn thing, and therefore I do not understand how its growth helps to restore controllability. I am about something else - about corruption that helped democracy. Volodya, delve into: they will chase Ilya Krichevsky, Vladimir Usov, Dmitry Kromar. Do you still remember these names? They will give away Galya Starovoitov, Yura Shchokochikhina, Anya Politkovskaya, many others, already forgotten or not yet killed. Does it suit you? Are these really your thoughts? Is your name comfortable over all this abomination? Is it itchy to the stigma of involvement, which will soon become indelible?

"8.2.5. The update of the executive branch, for example, through the call of the “generation of freedom” before it leaves, or decompose. This, Putinsky, may be in addition to creating institutions by the decisive lever of bloodless reform and modernization. ”

This funny sentence does not need to be analyzed in terms of its content. It is written only in order to unobtrusively prepare us for the main thing, which will be formulated slightly lower, and so that we understand clearly who is meant here:

"8.2.8. Preserving the personalist nature of the authorities to the near future. This is risky. But the other country and society have not yet been given, and they have not yet “earned” real democracy and freedom. Having received them from above in the early 1990s, compatriots ruined the state-the USSR, the former Russian Empire, and by the end of the decade they almost ruined what was left-the Russian Federation. ”

I would like to know: who are these wise and righteous judges who decide, who is given or not given? Anonymous authors? Or are you, my dear colleagues? Do you really share this harsh sentence? And these false immoral arguments?

Sergei Alexandrovich, as I recall, the Valdai club has a council of foreign and defense policy as one of the co -founders. As a member of the latter, I ask you the question as the club chairman: does the swap responsible for this document, for the cooking of anonymous authors? Does the swap of the provisions of this document, its assessment and recommendations? If so, I ask you to exclude me from the Council of Foreign and Defense Policy.

Do not think, colleagues, that I condemn you. Я не пытаюсь заразить вас своим примером, ибо моя наивность имеет разумные пределы. Я могу понять запуганных. Я не судья расчетливым, ищущим возможность конвертировать во что-то полезное свою сопричастность, возможность сфотографироваться рядом с премьером или президентом. В конце концов, я обязан допускать возможность того, что вас всех просто развели, как лесных лохов: проглотит этот текст интеллигентская тусовка (недаром в тексте рассыпаны мелкие комплименты в ее сторону) – хорошо; не проглотит, распознает наживку – тоже здорово, можно будит запачкать сразу кучку представителей этого мерзкого племени. Корпорация, о которой с такой деликатностью упомянуто в вашем документе, прекрасно управлялась с такими провокациями еще в андроповские времена.

Короче, это ваши проблемы: за все надо платить. Но я и не об этом. Я даже не про репутацию или мораль. Это забыто накрепко. Впрочем, спешу напомнить, что мораль имеет еще одну сторону: она сродни долгосрочной рациональности. В отличие от вашей, сиюминутной.

Но я на самом деле вот о чем. Вам, как и мне, понятно, что вся эта ржавая вертикаль скоро рухнет. Эти, кого вы называете верховной властью, незыблемость которой пошловато обосновывает ваш доклад, скоро уйдут в историческое небытие. Их преступления перестанут быть фактами оппозиционной или зарубежной публицистики и обрастут рутинными приговорами судов с большими сроками и еще б о льшими конфискациями. Нам трудно предсказать, какого числа и каким образом это произойдет. Мы не знаем, что придет взамен – военная диктатура или возрожденная демократия. Но предельно ясно одно: через пять, пятьдесят или пятьсот лет эта первая дюжина годков третьего тысячелетия будет рассматриваться как самый позорный, постыдный период во всей истории России.

Пройдет еще несколько лет, и ваш внук или внучка, войдя в возраст осознания дедушкиного величия, подойдет однажды днем и разбудит спящего на диване славного предка. «Деда, — скажет он (она), протягивая фотографию на его (ее) айпадике-8. — Это ты с кем? С тем самым?! Который…которого…? А ты ему и руку пожимал? Деда, а зачем? Деда-а-а-а… Ну ты что-о-о-о? Я никому не скажу-у-у…»