Results of the year: Fog in winter

It's funny to re -read your articles of the past year.

How many stupid things he wrote, how he spun a wolf around the “Choice of Putin”, etc.

It’s funny all this is not “in the order of self -criticism” (here are my difficulties), but in another sense: after all, “we, political scientists,” are just empty banks attached to the “tail of Putin”. How much he himself had hidden loops, worn around the Kremlin court!

An experiment with Zubkov (someone else remembers Fradkov? But who remembers about Zubkov, honestly?!). National Leader. Putin's plan. Jackals. "The secret of the successor." And suddenly - "Here you are, grandmother, Medvedev day!"

As in a good detective - the clue lay open on the table, everyone in sight, but no one saw.

Only hardly that was the initial "plan of the special operation of Putin." No. I think that there was no plan - as it should in life - there was no. The solution was the method of trial and errors, tried “on a tooth”, discarded, went further, in the conditions of time pressure. And we, commentators, just every zigzag took for the final ...

Well, okay, the “abstract painting of vertical zigzags” has already appreciated everything.

But now the zigzag is final?

Yes, final, in the sense that Medvedev is our president.

Apparently, the final and in the sense that Putin is a prime minister. (Still, the probability that, having worked as a “steam locomotive”, he “unhooked” in March-May 2008, extremely small.)

But then the full fog is still. So we do not know "Who is Mister Putin?" Well, yes, the man of the year according to Time magazine. And - is it all about him?

What Putin wants: to maintain power or transfer power?

Funny, but we can still only guess.

Pregnancy test

I would single out one most important component. This "Pregnancy Test" is the most accurate.

The President is not the one who put his hand on the text of the Constitution. And not a happy owner of a “suitcase”. We are not going to fight with anyone - “and our suitcase stands on the back of the back”, far from the main political tracks. This is not a “ring of power” in the country, in principle, the owner of a “suitcase” can even play the role of the “English queen”-then this suitcase is something like a crown, even put on the crown ...

In general, in the serious domestic political conflicts of the “argument-item-dimensional”, fortunately, it does not matter.

The President of the Russian Federation - and not the one who flies to the ranch of the US president, is forced to kiss, forgive me, with A.G. Lukashenko and clap on the iron shoulder of commandant Chavez.

The President of the Russian Federation is the one who is subordinated: a) special services, b) information streams TV, c) financial flows in the main state corporations. This "oprichnina of power" (all the rest of the zemstvo) is the queen of the king. Without these functions, he is just a king, a naked king on a vertical.

By the way, the division is possible here. Those. Putin also controls all these parts, and the other president can control, say, only two. Moreover, a smaller fragmentation is possible (part of the special services, some channels, chosen flows are subordinated to the president-by the way, this is obviously-it is, etc.). But we will not about the terrible - before such anarchy (the President of the FSB and ORT against the President of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and RTR), we must hope, will never reach.

So “Pregnancy Test” Putin himself immediately set. Before he agreed to the post of prime minister, he immediately stated that "there would be no revision of functions between the prime minister and the president." Only under this condition does he agree to “stay on galleys” (from an interview with Time).

And the “revision of functions” would mean that the President of Russia is taken away in favor of the prime minister at least control over special services. So Putin said: this will not.

Special services remain subordinate to President Medvedev.

As for the TV, the question is more complicated: no law is spelled out, of course, that they "obey the administration of the President of the Russian Federation." Therefore, this question, like even more confused and delicate question about “flows”, we take out the bracket, drown in the fog ...

So - special services. The vertical ridge.

This ridge Putin is from himself - if he believes him - shoves with both hands.

This is the central moment. The main question of Russian political philosophy: does he say the truth or not?

It is useless to torture - the scout will not split.

Let's try to "pump on indirect."

Why did Putin say this at all? Who pulled him by the tongue? He could simply agree to be the prime minister without any clarifications - and the point. It is clear that no one would dare to ask him anything, moreover, many (and many even sincerely) would ask him exactly what to “reconsider the powers” ​​in their favor. And Medvedev would definitely not object.

So, Putin pulled by his tongue only himself.

In the same way as in the case of the third term. It is clear: if, in accordance with the well -known procedure, they changed the constitution, introduced the third term, then none of the people would have said a word in the power, the West would have eaten and not hiccuped, the people would only drive round dances. And Putin 128 times, sharply and clearly answered: no, no, no !!! And he insisted on his own. And now he also clearly says: I will not take any powers except those that the prime minister. And do not ask and do not cry: Russia will remain presidential.

Is it true? Not true?

For Putin’s fanatical persistence in the desire to leave the post of president, and now there are two explanations for the presidential powers not to take slowly.

First. Everything is lying! He just tries to comply with decency, but “acquires” for him is much more important for him. He is power-loving, still the president will remain de facto, here is the proof: "Trojan Medvedev." Inside the nesting doll "Medvedevs" is a much larger figure of the Almighty Putin. Therefore, a weak Medvedev is appointed to the successors.

But the question is: and Putin refuses the special services - why? "Isn't that what the powerful man affected?!"

Second. You can accept a version that Belkovsky defended with rare perseverance for years (as soon as his boiling energy was released, which he previously spent generously, demanding the immediate arrest of the enemy of the Khodorkovsky people): Putin tells the truth! Putin is a Siberite who wants to get away from the authorities, to leave for his island of treasures in the middle of Lake Geneva, to dig a treasure (Belkovsky accurately calculated that the treasure costs $ 40 billion!) And to make high from the “Wild Russia”. Edmond Dantes runs from the Kremlin castle to live Count Monte Cristo.

And therefore, apparently, Putin remains the prime minister?!

Is there at least some way to unravel this next tullen?

"Deduction, Watson, Deduction!"

We ask ourselves a common question: why is the successor - it is Medvedev?

According to the first version (powerful Putin), the reason is that the “soft Medvedev” will easily agree to the role of “zits-chairman”-both by nature, and because he understands: “a magic wand of power” in the form of special services still cannot be kept. After all, there is little formal submission, here contacts, connections, their people are needed. And the only “contact” by Medvedev in the special services is the “resident Putin” himself. Therefore, the special services will not obey de facto Medvedev, will remain Putin.

But then, again: why didn’t Putin by law retain the special services?! Answer: And he will slowly reassign them (more precisely, he will simply retain control over them). Suppose. But why did it even say that “I won’t take them”? The conspiracy is? From whom? And what is the meaning of it - to lie, knowing in advance that the lie will open?

But according to the version there are two (self -loving Putin) explanation as it is here. Medvedev is safe for Putin, he will not pursue him in the white light, release him from Russia - and be with this Russia what will happen ... Everything is very nice. Just then what does Putin do not “run” (at least from power), leaving Medvedev on the economy? “The main thing in the profession of the national leader is to wash off in time,” - this can be said to paraphrase the famous film. So what does Putin remain? Well, here, of course, there is an answer - this is so far, it is only until March to ensure the election of Medvedev. And then - until May, before the transfer of power. Well, sir, and if Putin remains (I risk assuming!) And then-then what's the matter? Well, after May, they will come up with another excuse ... But they will not change the overall view of Sibarita-Putin. "Still, she turns!"

Idyll of the student and teacher

My answer is the following.

Putin could choose Medvedev for many referring reasons.

First. Yes, personal comfort - it works with it easier, and substitute the back (if Putin leaves) is not as scary as others.

Second. In Putin's eyes, Medvedev’s dignity is that he is “St. Petersburg, but not a Chekist”. Because Putin does not want to further strengthen the “Chekists”. This is dangerous for him: obeying the impulses of a hot heart, too far they launched their clean, but playful hands and zerled with cold skulls. And - shut up your ears, faithful "hedgehogs"! - Putin sincerely believes that it is dangerous not only for him, but also for Russia. I quite admit, more than that, for a second I have no doubt that not only we are, but, surprisingly, the President of Russia Putin about her, the old woman of God, also thinks!

Third. And in general, Medvedev, according to Putin, is what, again, it is ridiculous to say, for Russia! An entertaining, by the way, the evolution of the image: Eruslan Lazarich, the Obkomovskiy Ugra-bucket on the tank-a neat lieutenant colonel-glassist on tatami-a professor’s son, a lawyer in Davos.

In this case, it is clear why Putin did not take the special services “on the chest”.

Because he sees Medvedev not with a “lame duckling”, but by the real president - without any prefix “ZIC”.

Because he believes that the vertical should not be split, but preserved.

Finally, again, it is clear why, in this case, Putin does not leave right away.

Because he does not want to, he cannot leave Medvedev among the wolves. Because he hopes his personal, informal authority and power in special services a) to restrain the process of their possible confrontation to the new president; b) gradually introduce Medvedev to the course of business; c) when the power of President Medvedev de facto grows to his power de jure, Putin will leave "with a sense of fulfillment."

With this strategy of Putin - and a sufficient tact of Medvedev - conflicts in the conditions of obvious dual power do not acquire an implacable nature, and friendship will defeat in the dispute “good with the beautiful”.

Of course, these conflicts cannot but be, at least business, workers. But implacable “disagreements on the agrarian issue - who will bury anyone” - they would only if a) Putin does not think to go anywhere and b) and Medvedev comes into the taste of “his power”, which “intoxicates stronger of wine”, and requires “living space” - and “hit Putin over and over again. The revolutionary situation is right on Lenin: the tops cannot, the bottoms do not want. And most importantly, Medvedev and Putin cannot agree on who is on whom, who are “tops”, who are “bottoms”.

Whatever Medvedev, but he is a man! Get all formal legal attributes of power, except for the authorities itself! Legal, but fictitious, platonic marriage with a dazzling beauty - who will withstand it for a long time?! They put you in your mouth the sweetest candy and forbidden to bite - for a long time you hold out?!

So the teasing basis for the conflict is almost inevitable. And multiply it on the interests of Kamarila from the other side - and we get the same duality splitting the country, which only propagandists with TV are forbidden to talk about.

But I am sure that Putin also understands this. And it would hardly have been deliberately provoked by such an antagonistic conflict, passing the main power levers to Medvedev. Therefore, I think that Putin foresees this conflict - and knows the means of resolving it. The only remedy is a gradual withdrawal, the gradual transmission of levers Medvedev.

Behind the scenes of idyll

An idealistic, blessed picture? Well, of course.

But even in this option, there is still no particular goodness. Personal idealization and benevolence is almost angelic in order to somehow remove the catastrophic structural flaws of the vertical itself.

In fact, what kind of power is this, which is transferred by the personal desire (arbitrariness) of one person?

Moreover, another (however, arising from the first) is much more dangerous. What kind of power that is not at all is impossible to transfer immediately, as it should be according to the law, as the power is transferred in all democratic countries?

What is this power (for example, over the special services), which is not transferred in an instant in the elections, as it should be according to the law, and which should also be “captured by concepts”, during a long subcutaneous struggle with their subordinates? And the vertical was rebuilt-Putin. A closed system, where the power of the closed "organs" is what is good here ...

And the price of the transfer of power to Medvedev ... Well, yes, he must "master the organs." But will he need to “degenerate” for this, to become part of these “organs transplanted”?

But these are all estimates. They can be objected to them: other power in Russia is impossible. Well, the dispute went in a circle ...

As for the forecast, I will supplement it with several more remarks.

We can track control measurements - after March (May).

First. Gazprom. Medvedev, as you know, is the chairman of the Board of Directors of Gazprom. He, like the president, will have to leave this post. If Putin takes it (this is permissible for the prime minister, Fradkov has already created a precedent, heading at the same time with the Vnesheconombank government), then this will become a clear signal where Putin plans to leave the White House.

Second. Administration. If the administration of President Medvedev retains control over TV and the Duma, if a much more powerful administration of the prime minister does not build it in parallel - this is also a signal that Putin does not plan to “rake power for himself” that “Medvedev is seriously and for a long time”.

Accordingly, if the prime minister begins to create his own administration, this is an equally clear signal in the exact opposite direction.

Third. Well, in general - whether Putin will fulfill his promise not to retract formally special services to the prime minister.

These are additional checks.

And the rest - with new happiness!