Explosion? No, decomposition

"The death of Russia"!

It sounds beautiful ...

For 20 years in a row this is the favorite melody of professional patriots of Russia. Whatever they sang, the chorus is one - such. The approximation of the “death of Russia” was strikingly coincided with the deprivation of “Soviet writers” by rations and state sides - it was the ProKhanov who constituted the “first attacking column of patriots”. “And he says in an undertone: / - traitors! / - Russia died! /There must be, the writer - /Vitia ...”. Then the Communists began to “gibes Russia” - being far from the feeding trough ... Well, if she no longer feeds us, we will feed themselves with conversations about her death!

In the 1990s, the liberals spit a little vigorously: it’s good to scare! Here we will carry out reforms and ... "And we will still sing."

But when the reforms-not quite as their authors planned-“ended”, and the liberals were sharply and immediately under the table of power, from there, from under the table, the same song suddenly rushed. The same death, only in another orange.

Well, the everyday business.

Every cricket, know your pole. "What is good for" General Motors "is good for America." And vice versa. The ration was taken from me - and Russia is a crash ... People, by the way, feel quite sincerely.

But recently, in view of the crisis and the obvious confusion of the authorities, “people mixed into the cloud of horses” - only a very deep provincial, completely lagging behind political fashion, does not speak of the upcoming “death of Russia” in the coming season.

Let’s still - until the light and water is turned off - let's try to figure out what kind of beast this is “guest”.

Here, as a rule, an involuntary (or conscious-demagogic) substitution of concept occurs.

Everyone knows what the death of an individual living creature is a plant, an animal, humans. And this is involuntarily transferred to a completely different concept - to the death of the country (people). In this transfer, the whole chip! People cover, so to speak, the dying horror, on which the next graves are counted on and in which the next graves are speculated ...

Meanwhile, this horror itself is bad, but its obviously false orientation.

The experience of history teaches that there are different forms of death of countries. Almost all of them are associated with catastrophic upheavals, the death of the mass of people, but, of course, almost never talking about the total death of the people.

So.

First. The spontaneous disaster from which the country disappears. In addition to Atlantis, something is not heard of examples ... Given the size of Russia, it is difficult to imagine such a natural disaster. However, those who would fall under a new Tunguska meteorite will hardly console that "the country will remain."

But there is nothing to discuss here - everything is in the hand of God.

And of course, "posters in Russia" sobbing about this.

Second. The country's military capture by foreign invaders. The destruction of the state. The extermination of the local elite. A mixture of the remaining population with the invaders. The disappearance of culture, language, religion.

Roman Empire. Inca state, Maya. Partly colonial robbery until the 19th century.

The option, of course, is absolutely excluded for Russia.

No one can, will not, will not end with him in a nuclear war against Russia. There is no other version of the military capture of the Russian Federation.

I’m not even saying that all this is generally a penny horror, after Hitler there was not a single “colonial capture” in the style of the Middle Ages in the world. But, I repeat, this ideological component does not matter, because There is a physical impossibility of capturing the Russian Federation.

Third. The decay of the empire into components-as a result of military defeat (Austria-Hungary, Ottoman Empire), anti-colonial war (British, French).

Military defeat is excluded - see above.

Anticolonial war? With whom, sorry? What are these regions dreaming of "getting out of Russia"? The Republics of the North Caucasus, which Russia contains (good 80% of their budget - subsidies from Moscow)? Are torn with all their might from the nurse nurses? Incorrectly. Their internal civil war has nothing to do with mass separatism.

Tatarstan, Bashkortostan? They are not on the content of Moscow, right.

But these rich regions a) are half consisted of Russians (40% of the population of Tatarstan, 36% of the population of Bashkortostan - by the way, Bashkirs are only 30%, according to the 2002 census), b) are surrounded by Russia from all sides, therefore, they can sell their oil, their main export product, can only “through Russia”. For these reasons, pure madness for them to try to "break out of the map." In addition, they remember the fate of Chechnya. In addition, there is no serious separatism at all. In addition, they are quite quite existing feudal liberties.

Who else? Yakutia? With a population of a million people scattered in the boundless territory, of which, by the way, more than 40% are Russians and about 45% - Yakuts? A frivolous conversation. I hope that smaller republics are not discussed - unless Abramovich will raise the Chukchi to the uprising ...

So, separatist decay on a national basis is excluded.

Fourth. The collapse of the country is not on a national basis - as a result of "economic separatism."

Separatism without a national component - say, the rich Russian region (Tyumen) wants to become a “new kuwait”, not to maintain “at your own expense” all of Russia and separate.

World history, in my opinion, does not know such precedents.

But the point is not only this.

This action is impossible legally (the fact that we have - in view of the deepest contempt for the right - everyone forgets). There is no law by which the region could leave the Russian Federation. So, just raise a kind of Makhnovsky rebellion against the whole country? Madness - even theoretically.

In addition, Russian people who want to “leave Russia” who want to “leave Russia”? I don't have enough imagination ...

It is more likely to imagine a collision with a meteorite ...

Fifth. Revolution, civil war - and again, the collapse of Russia.

There are two fundamentally different precedents.

Bloody 1918-1921.

Beskrovny 1990-1993.

What is more likely in modern Russia?

In my opinion, both are incredible, but if you “choose”, then of course 1990-1993. We are just not people from 1918-1921 (young, illiterate, poisoned by the blood of World War II, under the influence of the superparty of the Bolsheviks and the super-drop of Lenin), and from 1990-1993. First of all, it really is us - physically. We have grown up, it's true. Covered by some kind of fat. Accustomed to more comfortable life. Young people are cynical, apolitical, absolutely does not want to die from “ideological motives” (any), even less ready for “revolution” than their fathers in 1991-1993.

The maximum that is possible is the “orange revolution”, i.e. A peaceful imitation of classical revolutions. Given the nationalist and great-power psychosis in modern Russia-“brown-orange”, national democratic, “against officials, Caucasians, liberals, Jewish oligarchs and other Americans”. Pleasure, no words, where below the average ...

But I do not wait for serious “Russian fascism” in this - purely theoretical version. As well as the "collapse of the country."

In essence, similar-quite disgusting and shameful-National Democratic Revolutions and took place in 1990-1991 in almost all republics of the former USSR. Somewhere more only (Baltic states, Ukraine), somewhere more aggressive (Moldova, Transcaucasia). It was, I repeat, it is extremely disgusting, it is very dangerous for many “foreigners” (oh, I would not want to get into such a meat grinder!), But on a country's scale, it is quite harmless. Of course, this caused national separatism - Transnistria, Abkhazia, Yu. Ossetia. And repeat such events in Russia, the Caucasus will certainly blame again. But these are all very arbitrary assumptions of what exactly Russian national patriotism could be ...

In any case, there are no reasons to wait for blood outletting the scale of the beginning of the century in Russia. There is no energy, blood, ideas and drive for this.

However, the Orange-Boar Revolution option seems extremely unlikely to me.

There are no leaders, no parties, no strength, no ideas for him.

And if the leaders-party-lines themselves are born “out of nothing” at the time of the weakening of power (as it was in 1990-1991), then the ideas are different.

In 1990, ideas were known in advance-freedom, private property, “independence of Russia” and “Western choice”.

And now?

Private property is some kind of-there is. It is stupid to “demand” it from the state, the idea of ​​“taking it” (except perhaps a revision of the results of the “paces” is completely unpopular - but this is a private topic, not revolutionary).

"Independence of Russia" - there is.

“Western path” is hated.

What remains? “Freedom” and “Down with the authorities” ... Well, the still dimensionless “Renaissance of Russia” ... Negative.

Such liquid ideas + cynical society, despising everything except money ... No, in my opinion, such an explosive mixture for the explosion is not suitable.

What Nazi crystals could “organize” this solution? Still, “Russia for Russians” and “Separate Russia from the Caucasus”? The majority will hardly lead to this - the words “decay of Russia” act on the mass consciousness simply magically. Moreover, everyone understands: in Russia for Russians there is really no place not for only the Caucasus, but for all national republics. And they - do not highlight, do not dissolve ...

So, by exclusion, we come to the sixth version of the Death of Russia.

Brighting. Corruption as the only method of government. A progressive lag from the advanced technological countries. Degradation of science. The debtization of society. Parasitical and raw economy. Loss of authority in the outside world. Political and social stagnation. The absence of a “project”, “plan”, prospects, simply put hopes.

Here is such a "death of the country."

Well, yes, we - died. But it does not hurt. And in general, this is not a result, it is a process. "Soft, nice, without interrupting sleep." Nothing beyond this program “sluggish death” - do not wait. "There will be no kina."

Cult to yourself in a deeper, smaller or smaller oil swamp and croak-either smug-roasting ($ 100/barrel), then thin-and-pipe-piercing ($ 40-50/barrel)-it is possible for an unlimited long time.

Nobody encroaches neither on integrity, nor on sovereignty, nor other accessories of our innocence. The main thing is that it flows from the pipes. And what is inside the swamp - no one is doing. And do not wait for Sveta at the end of the tunnel - their trains have other routes.

And now let's get back to the beginning.

Why now the conversations about “complete death seriously” have become aggravated now?

Clear: crisis, power was confused, etc.

Further, the idea is obvious: the current model “Oil in exchange for everything, but we don’t need politics at all” - this model has exhausted itself before oil.

And if so, the thought of political scientists is in a hurry and jumps, then ...

Stop, analysts.

Something"?

Yes, no.

The logic of reasoning (once “proven that the model does not work”) requires a transition-at least somewhere.

And social logic does not require anything like that. Moreover, the social logic of our country excludes such transitions.

Yes, the model has exhausted itself. Even before her appearance - she was originally bastard.

And what does it mean "exhausted"? Well, of course, this is a model of stagnation and decomposition. Social, technological, moral.

But - an organic system.

But another model for ours-at least in the Liberal, even in the autocratic-oil and gas-bureaucratic country, is still not there.

Due to the lack of alternative models and energy in society, the country lives “according to the exhausted model”, the machine “rides to the yuz”. Or, if you like, stands and rot. This is how to see.

The “energy power”, devoid of social energy, will continue to turn in his energy pit.

"We live here."