In the Kremlin

Entropy

February 3, 2011 Alexey Kondaurov

In today's Russia, nothing can be planned in advance. The probability of becoming a victim of a terrorist, a bandit, a law enforcement officer, a car with a miga, a technogenic catastrophe, icicles, a collapsed roof, expired or poor -quality goods, counterfeit drugs and other products of corruption decomposition of the state are already running out. Inflation in January seemed to be furious, seriously putting on the agenda the survival of the most unprotected layers of society. Unemployment crawled up again and is unlikely to stop, taking into account the totality of economic realities: capital is running, direct investments do not go due to the totality of risks, corruption and tax fractions continue to kill a living small and medium-sized businesses, the number of enterprises that are a de facto economic corpses do not decrease. Oil prices do not even console the Duumvirate: despite the budget, despite the 100 American dollars per barrel, is still spreading, the pension fund is cracking at the seams, crazy projects such as the Sochi Olympics and unhealthy social obligations are ready to swallow any revenue increase, and at the same time reserve funds. The country glides along the inclined.

None of the Duumvirs have any fresh ideas - worldview, social, economic, managerial, legislative, simply sensible, at worst, adequately assessing the world. In return, a lie as a way of manipulating public consciousness is a familiar domestic mixture of manovism with nostril. They lie non-stop: about Beslan, about Nord-Ost, about explosions in Moscow, about the death of Litvinenko, about the death of the Politkovskaya, about the death of Magnitsky, about the war in the Caucasus, about the trial of Khodorkovsky and Lebedev, about the fight against corruption, about the knees, about the favorable investment climate, about modernization.

For several years in a row, Mr. Medvedev fools liberal heads, telling how Mila Freedom, continuing the practice of “utilizing” and designing a lack of freedom, which was begun by Mr. Putin for everyone who does not agree that life at these figures has become more fun. He also treats the audience with stories about the historical and cultural features of Russian corruption, and associates from the near circle, allegedly fighting with this evil inherited from their ancestors, are illuminated by the space around the president with the brilliance of golden Swiss watches, comparable to the size of their annual salary. And an allusion from the fifties of the last century, associated with thieves that had a habit, brazenly shouting, flashing a golden fixed in the face of a “ruining fraer”, involuntarily arises.

Mr. Putin for 12 years in short intervals between training in the gym, relaxation in Sochi, with the performance of the Chorus “where the homeland begins” and otherwise with a pastime for the country, he practices daily television hypnosis sessions, reading leaves with numbers characterizing the movement to a bright capitalist tomorrow. That's just “tomorrow” everything does not come and does not come. Mr. Putin’s ritual of hypnosis is forced to violate television sorrow with a ritual with the distribution of cash benefits to relatives of victims and victims of the next terrorist attacks, fires, accidents at work and transport, which are taking place for reasons, as a rule, caused by corruption and administrative mess, which he acquired a red color for 12 years of the Putin era. anxiety. The segments between the distributions of the “grave” are inexorably compressed, the number of the untimely departed is growing, and the on -duty sorrow on the face of the National Leader threatens to freeze with a lifelong grimace, not subject to either the boot or cosmetic tights.

Most of the population, enjoyed at the TV, according to sociologists, does not realize that two creatures loom every day, absolutely not intended for the mission that fell on them. Nature did not endow these main characters of the Russian political scene with the ability to create meanings, formulate a development strategy, and control large systems. People who have at least a minimal habit of thinking have long understood that neither Medvedev nor Putin was able to meaningfully lead Russia-they are trivial. The maximum for which their imagination is enough is to improve the ways of “suction” of oil and gas and maintaining the status quo state-oligarchic capitalism, which they themselves are the direct screts.

If such figures were inadvertently in countries with developed democracy, there would be no big trouble. In us, with the deplorable state of the institutions of power, an underdeveloped political system, the weakness of civil society, everything and all permeating corruption, ordinary and doubt the personal decency of the first persons of the state do not promise a change in life for the better. The problem for the future of the country is not which of these two will drop in the Kremlin in 2012, but that the further decline of Russia is predetermined with both Putin and Medvedev. Not only are they both bad, but none of them, remaining a bunch of unspoken obligations and mafia secrets tied through the hands and feet, will risk starting the screening of an extremely ineffective power machine. The question is not in the reality of the onset of the collapse, but in the terms of its arrival, depending only on the supply of the strength of the economy and finance, the patience of the people and the speed of decay of the regime. The longer (10 years?), The worse, since the bloodless exit with prolonged decay is unlikely to be realistic for many reasons. Bloody shocks are certainly undesirable, given the nuclear status of a power. In this sense, Russia is definitely not Tunisia or Egypt. However, there is an intuitive feeling that everything will go faster (better - very fast) and, I hope, a peaceful scenario that is preferable for everyone, without exception.

Medvedev, despite his “St. Petersburg” origin, theoretically had a chance to consolidate the educated class around him, excluding pressure on the judge Danilkin or pardoning Khodorkovsky with Lebedev on the personal initiative and returning free elections to Russia. In this case, there was an opportunity for Medvedev personally to at least weaken the umbilical cord, connecting it with the corrupt bureaucracy and the power oligarchy of the Putin's draft, to strengthen its own legitimacy in 2012 and launch the process of political and technological modernization of the country. But this is in theory, but there is a real life that leaves him no choice. The president’s debut with Mr. Sechin in Davos clearly demonstrated him not just non -independence, but total dependence on the Putin clan. If there were illusions regarding Medvedev’s good intentions to squeeze out a slave out of himself, then he buried them, publicly justifying the illegality of the second accusation of Khodorkovsky and Lebedev. Even from legally incorrect parallels with Madoff, previously repeatedly voiced by Putin, did not dare to refuse. What is Robin under Batman, rather, the conciliators of the boss of all bosses - more accurate than the American diplomats, compared to Harry Kasparov. Now, if it suddenly discovers that the notorious “nuclear suitcase” Medvedev was not considered necessary to transfer the office when taking up the post, then such a discovery is unlikely to surprise anyone.

A large percentage of the support of Putin and Medvedev, which is shown by public opinion polls, and the very insignificant, which has a democratic opposition, is not a reason to question the justice of the opposition’s statements about the inferiority of the authorities as a whole and these two characters in particular. Pull the unpleasant videos about tandem, as it was in the case of Luzhkov, then the Public favorites do not have a couple of weeks in a couple of weeks, but it will just take a friend of Berlusconi and ask for a residence permit.

When exclamations are heard, and who, they say, instead of these two, could control Russia, the answer is obvious. Like these two “giant thoughts” - any manager who has medium abilities. Much better than they can be the same Kasyanov, Nemtsov, Kasparov, Academician Ryzhov, Gerashchenko (are El-Baradei younger?), Not to mention those sitting in the prison. And a bunch of other educated and experience of state and corporate management of people. The named people have a more powerful box, and the gray matter inside will be tight and curses.

Ratings ratings, and the country creeps slowly into a political cycle, which is very reminiscent of the volume of accumulated problems of the segment of the late 80s and early 90s of the last century. Then the democratic opposition managed to use the election lever to violate the monopoly on the power of the CPSU and gradually change the political situation in their favor. In Putin’s Russia, a similar scenario - through the elections - a priori does not work: another country, other political customs, other public moods, another degree of discontent. This means that a new tactic is needed, taking into account the features of the moment and associated with the accumulation of forces, increased protest, the formation of its own agenda and continuous agitation for it. Neither the 2011 elections nor the 2012 election, the country's sliding process will be stopped by inclined, and therefore play by the rules that the authorities are in a state of bankruptcy are harmful to the reputation. The reputation is the little that you can’t buy for money, but the only thing that is always enormous in the political market in the times of the crisis is always enormous. Do not believe - look at the modern world.

Photos of RIA Novosti