In the Kremlin

I don't believe!

November 15, 2005 Evgenia Albats

I don't believe! As the great Stanislavsky used to say: everyone seems to play correctly, but now I don’t believe it.

The Kremlin began the operation "The successor", putting Dmitry Medvedev and Sergey Ivanov to the finish line?

Firstly, Deja Wu, they already passed, and at that time and when several powerful players played on the Russian political stage. Not to mention the fact that all the pro -Kremlin media amicably voiced this particular version - the “successor” ...

Why, one wonders, repeat the same combination today, when everyone is already standing at the "eat" rack? So that everyone around says: successor No. 1 Medvedev, No. 2 - Ivanov? So - they scorch how they burned at one time Chernomyrdin, Kiriyenko, Stepashin.

By the way, when Dmitry Kozak was sent to the Southern Federal District, they also touched that Kozaka was prepared for successors. It turned out that they did not send it - they were exiled.

The second argument. Medvedev was entrusted with “Socialist”: medicine, education plus construction (which implies, apparently, and reform of the housing and communal services) and agriculture.

Directions as a selection: one continuous minefield. Even if Medvedev’s stabilization fund is dispersed, reforms will require exceptional organizational and economic efforts - namely, the former head of the administration has no such experience. In addition, he will have to deal with the government apparatus, which even Chubais could not cope with. This is a special “thing in itself”, but there are also devices of ministries and agencies that still cannot decide who is responsible and who, who, to whom and how obeys. Not to mention how diligently Medvedev will insert sticks into the wheels all those who do not want to see him as a successor.

In short, if Medvedev manages to go through this minefield, well, the flag in his hands: he can be president. But the hopes for this are ghostly, comparable to those that were assigned to Kozak and his successes in the peace of the North Caucasus. The result is known.

The argument is third. Medvedev ceases to control access to the “body” - and this in the eyes of officials clearly indicates the loss of weight in the administrative market. Accordingly, the ill -wishers who will report to the President about the slightest mistakes of Medvedev will gain much greater access to the “body” - the greater that control over the presidential administration and, therefore, over access to the first person, finally moved to the security forces, the groups of Sechin, Ivanov, and so on, with whom we recall the example of Rosneft, have been in the not the best not the best relationship.

The fourth argument. They started too early. Even if the political calendar moves, as many predicted, and the presidential election will not be held in 2008, but in 2007, it is still early: the real successor should be shown in six months, not earlier, especially since all the federal media and so under control.

So, Medvedev is not a successor.

Sergey Ivanov? Firstly, he was tried for this role all last winter and spring: Ivanov showed himself a completely “wooden” politician, his rating, despite the endless flicker on television, rose only two points. In addition, the post of Minister of Defense is quite suitable for the role of the successor, but the prefix of the Deputy Prime Minister (and, therefore, partially responsible for the actions of the government) not only does not need. No, Ivanov’s increase is more like an incentive prize, a sweet pill for loyalty than the promise of something more significant.

Then what: Sergey Sobyanin, the former Tyumen governor, look at the role of Putin's replacement? And again: early. In addition, a presidential candidate from governors, especially from the Siberian region, would have much greater chances of getting support in the eyes of voters than another Moscow official.

The question is, what then is the meaning of these mysterious permutations, about which even comrades close to the Kremlin learned from the messages of information agencies?

I think everything is simple: this is how the next subcover Kremlin bin was allowed.
Igor Sechin, an unspoken leader of not just security forces, but the security forces of the rich, controlling serious oil resources, and his closest environment, which had long competed with Medvedev and Gazprom, finally prevailed. This is also indicated by the choice of the new head of the administration: Sergei Sobyanin is invariably represented as a close person of Vladimir Bogdanov, the general director and the main owner of the Oil company Surgutneftegaz, and he, in turn, has long been known as the “man of Sechin”.

If there is a share of truth in this construction, then it can be argued: the Chekists finally prevailed, Putin was cut off from those whom it was customary to call “liberals” in the Kremlin and the government, that is, from representatives of the more moderate wing of the current authoritarian power. Well, in this case, hard times await us ahead.

True, one can imagine a fantastic option at all: Putin is going to resign and prepares his movement to the government in order to leave only representative functions behind the next president. And although changes in the constitution for such a combination are not required (it will only be necessary to correct the law on the government and transfer to subordination to the prime minister of the ministry with “asterisks” - that is, security forces), it still seems too complicated, which is completely not required in the conditions of the authoritarian regime.

And finally it is impossible not to notice that we are all put in an equally wonderful position: the amazed observers, on whom nothing depends on anything (both on those who are loyal to the Kremlin and on those who are to the opposition) and which only one will guess: it will be worse or will be much worse. Evgenia Albats

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