Another army?

Three weeks ago, the head of the Main Directorate of Combat Training, General Vladimir Shamanov, talking to journalists, said: before July 1, the Minister of Defense should be presented with a document outlining the future appearance of the Armed Forces for the next decade. The Ministry of Defense pretended not to notice the general’s words. If you believe the official information, then the top military leaders discussed on July 1 only the social development program for the army. Moreover, General Vasily Smirnov, who heads the Main Organizational and Mobilization Directorate of the General Staff, said that he knows absolutely nothing about the preparation of such a document.

Meanwhile, everything that I have heard recently from the leaders of the military department suggests that such a document, of a very radical nature, is indeed being prepared. Recently, two deputy defense ministers - General Alexander Kolmakov and Lyubov Kudelina - told journalists amazing things. Kudelina spoke about how it is planned to implement the Minister of Defense’s decision, which has caused a lot of noise, to reward the best officers who serve in the “knowledge-intensive” troops, as well as in permanent readiness units. We are talking about the strategic missile forces, space forces, nuclear submarines, airborne troops, ground forces and marines. Next year, 25 billion rubles are expected to be divided among the 30 thousand most “advanced” officers. By Russian standards, we are talking about a lot of money. “Promoted” officers will receive a monthly salary increase of 1.5 to 2.5 thousand dollars.

But the point here is not even about the money, unprecedented for Russian officers. Lyubov Kudelina, who, let me remind you, is the Deputy Minister for Financial Affairs, suddenly started talking about how the incentive would lose its meaning if everyone did not understand that the money was really intended for the best officers, and not for commander’s sycophants. Kudelina complained about how difficult it is to develop objective, and most importantly, clear criteria for evaluating the work of officers. And, oh, miracle, she also expressed the idea that the results of such a “competition” should be summed up not in the quiet of the boss’s offices, but at officers’ meetings. The same ones whose role in recent years the Ministry of Defense has carefully reduced to zero.

I will add that these criteria are vital for a much more important matter than the assignment of increased salaries. Over the past ten years, the Main Personnel Directorate has still not been able to develop these criteria in order to make the process of appointing officers to higher positions open and transparent. Until now, the entire process of promoting officers has been and remains shrouded in secrecy, and the issue of promotion is decided by two people - the immediate commander and the personnel officer. If general criteria for evaluating an officer’s work are indeed developed and senior commanders are forced to explain their decisions at an officers’ meeting, this will be a complete revolution in the service system.

First Deputy Minister of Defense, General Alexander Kolmakov, was equally sensational: “The training of our troops remained at the level of the 60-70s (of the last century - A.G.). Military personnel were repeatedly “trained” to obtain high marks during inspections based on the results of training. The main thing was to hit the target on time, and this despite the fact that the training ground equipment had not been updated for at least seven years and was designed for conducting exercises within a company. The level of training of officers could only be considered satisfactory. In particular, school graduates were not ready to perform a number of tasks to increase the combat readiness of their units. The physical training of the military personnel is also weak.”

The Russian army has not received such harsh assessments for a very long time. If we call a spade a spade, Anatoly Serdyukov’s first deputy stated: the effectiveness of the three hundred exercises that were conducted this winter, to put it mildly, is low. Therefore, according to the general, “the Ministry of Defense has begun to develop a new combat training system, according to which they are faced with the task of being ready to operate in any tactical situation, on any territory and in any climatic conditions.” Moreover, he talked about the introduction of information technology already at the battalion level.

I don’t know whether Kolmakov and Kudelina are aware of this, but with their proposals they are decisively destroying the existing model of a mass mobilization army in the country. This army is strong not in the quality of combat training, but in the number of soldiers. The soldier and junior officer in such an army are doomed to live one or two battles. And therefore there is no reason to spend huge amounts of money on officers trying to improve their work as much as possible. It makes no sense to spend money on training soldiers to operate in various tactical environments. After all, they are “consumables”.

It is quite obvious that the programs announced by the deputy ministers can only be implemented in another army. Numbering significantly less than a million military personnel. It is impossible to improve the quality of officer training when there are 400 thousand of them. A conscript soldier serving for one year can only be trained in the most basic methods of warfare. Even in “prosperous” Soviet times, a soldier fired a machine gun five times in two years.

For now, ministry leaders insist that they intend to maintain two armies at the same time. One - staffed by well-trained volunteers and advanced officers. And another - consisting of boys who were forced into barracks and commanded by officers with ruined careers. The question inevitably arises: who needs this second army and why? Is it really only the Kremlin, which wants citizens to feel in bondage to the state all the time? Or generals who need the size of their army to save the stars? Sooner or later, the leaders of the ministry, and with them the leaders of the country, will have to make a choice.

I'm ready to share my own theory. Somewhere at the turn of 2010 and 2011, the military department simply will not have the necessary number of people to fill the staff (“The women, comrades, let us down,” Anatoly Kvashnin, who at one time held the position of Chief of the General Staff, used to say about this.) This year the conscription of reserve officers into the army was stopped. Thus, in 2011, about 20 percent of platoon commander positions will be vacant. At the same time, the number of young men who reached the age of eighteen in 2011 will be almost equal to the regular number of conscripts. The president will be doomed to decide: either to cancel all deferments, or to refuse conscription. I suspect that the problem will be resolved in a style characteristic of the current government. Everyone will pretend that the call continues. But in fact, the number will be reduced to 600-800 thousand people. In fact, this will mean a transition to voluntary military service. But at the same time, the people must remain afraid, and therefore no one will officially refuse the conscription.