Let there be liberalism!

Over the past decade, approximately once a year (or even more often) articles by leading moderate political scientists have appeared, who began to vehemently prove that the potential of the liberal economy has been exhausted. I emphasize: it was not the Red authors who made such forecasts - they hated liberalism, as they say, by virtue of their position - but, rather, the centrists. They wrote that liberalism had discredited itself with the reforms of Gaidar and Chubais, that the people were fed up with liberal policies and would not allow them to return for a long time.

The death of liberalism was associated with the government of Yevgeny Primakov and the rise to power of Vladimir Putin. However, Primakov made a decisive contribution to achieving one of the main goals of Russian liberals - drawing up a balanced budget. Putin created the conditions for the formation of a new strategic program for economic development based on liberal principles. But all attempts to organize social democratic movements and parties in Russia failed miserably, and the social democrats were never able to occupy any noticeable place in domestic political life.

Does this mean that liberalism in our country is eternal and invincible? That liberals are indestructible? Can we say, following the American philosopher Francis Fukuyama, that “history has ended” and liberalism has won completely and finally, at least intellectually? Only the latter is true, and then only for convinced supporters of liberal ideology. However, there cannot be a positive answer to all other questions. All processes in society develop in waves. One paradigm is being replaced by another.

So it is with current Russian liberalism. Neither his communist enemies nor his centrist friends could defeat him. However, there is a force that will defeat liberalism. It's himself. The implementation of the liberal program should lead to its attenuation. Political decisions in the liberal paradigm will become obvious and will not cause heated debate. And that’s when the fatigue begins. Then there will be a renaissance of more left-wing, dirigiste doctrines, and the energy of liberalism will begin to fade. Not forever, of course, but for a while.

The first steps in this direction have been taken, precisely by the liberal measures of the current Russian leadership. The key importance here is the adoption of new tax legislation. Tax reform created the basis for the emergence of social democracy in Russia. Our lack of a center-left political force had serious economic reasons. After all, the essence of the social democratic economic program is an increase in taxes for the implementation of government programs. Until now, none of the political forces has dared to advocate raising taxes. Taxes were too high, it was obvious to everyone. Even the communists demanded their reduction, often more radical than the right. (Which is not surprising, since they did not seriously expect to come to power and could afford the most extravagant economic slogans). The difference in positions was the discussion about expenses rather than income. Everyone was going to reduce taxes, but some proposed increasing spending at the same time.

Now that taxes are being reduced radically, there is a basis for demanding that they be increased in order to increase social spending. That is, for the social democratic program and, possibly, the corresponding party. Of course, it will not arise immediately. But the very fact that statements immediately appeared about a possible revision of the new tax system in the direction of increasing them testifies in favor of our conclusion.

An amazing example of a significant transformation in the economic views and desires of the elite is provided by discussions in the corridors of power. Let's take a recent government meeting where a system of new import tariffs was discussed. During the discussion, no one (I emphasize - no one!) spoke out against a general reduction in tariffs, or even more so in favor of increasing import duties. Moreover, representatives of industry, contrary to their usual position, came forward with demands to reduce import duties more decisively than what was proposed by the liberals led by German Gref. This was motivated by the desire to purchase imported equipment necessary for further economic growth. Even the farmers did not object. But until recently, the problem of protecting domestic producers using protectionist methods was at the center of the political struggle.

All these steps in the development and strengthening of liberalism are at the same time a contribution to strengthening the springboard for leftist ideology.

Finally, one more consideration of a more general nature. We have repeatedly drawn attention to the fact that the situation when all disputes boiled down to opposition between supporters of market or planned mechanisms has been overcome. Now even communists write market programs. A consensus is being formed in society on the key issues of its further development. True, this is only a basic consensus that creates only a general basis for social stability. It should not be overestimated, but it should not be ignored either.

Vladimir Mau - head of the Working Center for Economic Reforms