There is a chance

I didn’t think about returning to the topic: everything has been said.

But there are a few numbers that may be of interest to readers - if they don't know them.

On November 8, many media outlets noted a slight sensation - the “Putin and Plan” balloon began to descend, no matter how much all the TV channels blew and cracked their cheeks. Namely: ER's rating fell in October from 56 to 50%. That's what they say, at least, citing data from VTsIOM.

I must say that I did not find such information on the official website of VTsIOM. But there are detailed results of a survey conducted on October 27-28.

I want to talk about them. First of all, let me remind you that VTsIOM, or more precisely, its director Valery Fedorov, is very “pro-Kremlin” inclined. So there is no reason to suspect him of lobbying the interests of my precious SPS.

The numbers are like this. The forecast for voter turnout (“definitely yes” and “probably yes”) is 71%. So it is unlikely that the authorities are so interested in luring the democratic Mohicans into their electoral trap: “The Bolsheviks will manage without me.”

And here are the results by party if the elections were held on October 28.

"ER" - 53.6% of the votes, Communist Party of the Russian Federation - 7.3%, LDPR - 3.9%, "SR" - 3.8%, "Yabloko" - 1.2%, SPS - 1.1%. 12.5% ​​found it difficult to answer, 13.7% will not participate.

It would seem that the ball is over, the candles have gone out. At least for ATP.

But no!

Here we look at the “predictive model of the distribution of votes in the Duma elections”, based on “long-term observations by VTsIOM and taking into account the increasing and decreasing coefficients that were calculated on the basis of sociological surveys and actual election results.”

Here the picture is already different.

"ER" - 52.7%; Communist Party of the Russian Federation - 15.6%; “SR” – 9.3%; LDPR – 7.5%; SPS - 5.2%, Yabloko - 2.3%, Civil Force - 2.1%.

It is clear that percentages are not calculated from the total number of voters, as in the first survey, but only from those who will vote.

So, according to the forecast, “United Russia” (by the way, it receives 279 mandates, instead of the constitutional majority declared by Gryzlov – 300 mandates), the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, “SR”, and the Liberal Democratic Party will enter the Duma.

SPS is next on the list. “Yabloko” and Barshchevsky’s civic tenderness have no chance at all.

But the most important thing is that, according to the forecast model of VTsIOM, the Union of Right Forces and only the Union of Right Forces has a huge chance of making a qualitative breakthrough: 1.1% of those who are ready to vote at the end of October, and 5.2% according to the forecast model as of December 2. (Compare with the situation of Yabloko: 1.2% - 2.3%.) The result is so surprising that I emphasize once again: these are not SPS figures, but a forecast from VTsIOM, which works closely with the Presidential Administration.

Damn you, dear democratic voters!

Of course, we can say that all these forecasts are pounding water in a mortar, are not worth a penny, etc.

But you can say it differently!

Even the Kremlin VTsIOM admits (it is forced to admit) that among the “democrats” only the Union of Right Forces has at least a tiny chance of passing the 7 percent barrier.

Of course, these amazing figures can also be interpreted as evidence against the Union of Right Forces: “now it’s clear that they are a reserve Kremlin regiment, what’s in this Trojan horse, etc.” According to this logic, everything proves the fake role of the Union of Right Forces - and the fact that they, and only they, are bold enough to attack the “Putin cult” and how their campaign materials are taken away, candidates are knocked out of their lists, etc. And my articles prove that this is all a Kremlin project - after all, on the forum someone has already “deciphered” me simply as Surkov. Surkov - Suvarin.

Well, I am powerless against the theory of a worldwide KGB-Masonic-Zionist conspiracy; this is already a matter of faith.

For those who still don’t believe in this, I can say: no matter what, there is a chance.

A chance for what? Slide Nemtsov and Belykh into the Duma?

A chance to show society and the authorities that there is, it turns out, a fairly large (according to their own criteria) organized group of people who are ready to resist the authorities, and not just hide their heads in a pillow or kick their legs while lying on the sofa. And this group - according to the laws of the government itself - is capable of creating a legitimate faction in the Duma that will be categorically against changes to the Constitution, the “coronation of Putin,” etc. At least, they are clearly going to the Duma under such slogans.

Without demagoguery - the realization of this chance depends, among other things, on each of us.