Siberia Island

Chinese became clear

I can tell you frankly that maybe not everyone even likes this kind of strategic interaction that exists between our countries. But we understand that this interaction is in the interests of our peoples, and we will strengthen it in every possible way, whether someone likes it or not! Dmitry Medvedev A year ago I published an article (as I carelessly promised, the last one) on a topic that I consider the most important for the security of our country, or rather, simply for its survival within the existing borders.

I really haven't written since then about Russian-Chinese relations. On the other hand, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Alexei Yablokov and Deputy Director of the Institute of Political and Military Analysis Alexander Khramchikhin spoke publicly about them a lot and very reasonably (on economic and military aspects, respectively).

The events of the past year in this area were, as Khramchikhin rightly put it, " epoch-making ", and it is simply impossible not to return to this topic, despite my promise.

The last year of the 2000s dramatically accelerated the dynamics of the emerging processes, focusing all the disturbing trends of the past decade and setting the agenda for the next one.

To immerse the events of 2009 and their consequences in the necessary historical context, I will allow myself to give excerpts from some records of past years (see sidebars on this page).

In the "epoch-making" 2009, the Russian leadership - military and political - finally had to stick its head out of the sand. It did it differently, but more on that below.

If the exercises of 2006 puzzled military experts, the even larger-scale military exercises " Kuyuae-2009 " (the largest in the 60-year history of the PRC) left no doubt: the PLA is deliberately demonstrating its readiness for a large-scale ground offensive operation on Russian territory.

This time, about 50,000 servicemen of the ground forces and the Air Force took part in the exercises, which took place on the territory of four military districts, and tested the latest weapons systems and the national satellite navigation system. The depth of throw of combined arms divisions was increased from one thousand kilometers (in 2006) to two thousand.

Neither in the Himalayas, nor in the Taiwan Strait, nor in repelling a hypothetical US attack from the air and sea will such combat experience of the Chinese army be needed. As we expected two years ago, the PRC's military-strategic planning horizon has obviously shortened by 10-15 years - the time previously allotted for a military solution to the Taiwan problem. The PLA faces the following long-term tasks.

It has become simply impossible for Russian military leaders to continue to pretend to be hoses for the sake of political installations. Little Red Riding Hood couldn't help but wonder why the Chinese grandmother grew such long teeth.

On September 23, 2009, on the official website of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, reflecting on the military threats to Russia in various strategic directions, the Chief of the General Staff of the Ground Forces, Lieutenant General Sergei Skokov, expressed an idea that was completely obvious and even banal, but absolutely unacceptable for Russian officialdom in the atmosphere of the last decade and a half strategic fraternization with China and a joint "fight against the unipolar world": "... If we are talking about the East, then it can be a multimillion-strong army with traditional approaches to warfare: straightforward, with a large concentration of manpower and firepower in separate directions ".

It must be assumed that before discussing such prospects online, the top military leaders informed the political leadership of the country in detail about what was happening on our eastern borders.

Surely, at least in general terms, they familiarized the national leaders with the official doctrinal guidelines of the PRC military theorists about "living space", which, as they believe, "is used to ensure the security, life and development of the country" and "for strong powers goes far beyond their state borders. And the strategic boundaries of the living space "should move as the integrated power of the state grows." By the way, is it not from this doctrine that Medvedev's student foreign policy concept of the "zone of Russia's privileged interests" was written off? So, you know, it's nice, "getting up from your knees", to speculate in a conceptual sense, having nothing in your soul, about the territories of your neighbors as a zone of your privileged interests.

And what is it like to feel yourself in someone's zone, if this someone, who has the second economy of the world, a multimillion-strong army sharpened for deep ground offensive operations, and a serious nuclear missile potential, also wants to overcome the largest geopolitical catastrophe of the XIV century - the collapse of the Mongolian empire, or for starters, at least the largest geopolitical catastrophe of the second half of the 19th century.

No, not by direct military action, of course, but exclusively in the spirit of Sun Tzu's stratagems: "Effective control exercised for a long time over a strategic area that is outside geographic boundaries will eventually lead to the transfer of geographic boundaries." ("Jiefangjinbao", 03/10/1988, quotation from A. Khramchikhin, 2009.)

As the Ministry of Regional Development of the Russian Federation rightly warned (and apparently this was also reported to the top political leadership) in the draft " Strategies for the socio-economic development of the Far East, the Republic of Buryatia, the Trans-Baikal Territory and the Irkutsk Region for the period up to 2025", the main "threat" and "challenge" to the region is "the danger of turning this territory only into a source of energy and raw materials for the Asia-Pacific countries."

And having such knowledge, in which there is so much sadness, what kind of historical decisions does the top Russian political leadership make in the second half of 2009? Epochal. Ignoring all the warnings of experts, it itself realizes "threats" and "challenges" to Russian sovereignty, indeed turning the territory of the Far East and Eastern Siberia only into a source of energy and raw materials, but not "for the Asia-Pacific countries", but for one of the countries of the Asia-Pacific region. The very one that for some reason, with persistent regularity, convincingly demonstrates to us its potential for the use of military power on the territory of Russia.

In response to this demonstration, the Russian leadership capitulated in economic negotiations and agreed to those agreements that the Chinese side has been harassing us for years. First, Chinese President Hu Jintao and President Dmitry Medvedev solemnly signed in the Kremlin the deal of the century (in Medvedev's phrase) - a twenty-year contract for Russia to supply China with 300 million tons of oil at a total cost of $100 billion (less than $50 per barrel). Considering that an oil pipeline with a declared cost of $29 billion will still have to be built, the real price for Russia will be much lower and clearly unprofitable. However, First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin hastened to publicly declare it "fair." However, personally for Mr. Sechin and other august oil traders hiding behind the figure of some modest Vietnamese intermediary with a Bhutanese passport, Tim Chen Ho, this price may even turn out to be very fair. One way or another, the first important step was taken towards turning the Russian Federation into a raw material appendage of the Middle Empire.

But our youngest president, accustomed over the years of his impeccable service in the committee on foreign relations of the St. Petersburg mayor's office and Gazprom, if done, then in a big way, could not, of course, stop there and signed with the same Hu on September 23, 2009 (accidental , but a very symbolic coincidence with the date of the announcement by General Skokov) in New York City is another landmark agreement - the "Program of Cooperation for 2009-2018 between the regions of the Far East and Eastern Siberia of Russia and the northeast of China", which included more than 200 joint projects .

Under this program, Russia gives natural mineral deposits for joint development, from which China will start producing iron, copper, molybdenum, gold, antimony, titanium, vanadium, silver, germanium, tin, etc. China is ready to build processing facilities on Russian territory as well, if they employ Chinese workers. In much the same way, China has concluded a number of agreements with African dictators in recent years. True, in Africa, the agreements provided for the creation of much more jobs for the natives.

The same program involves expanding border checkpoints and "strengthening Russian-Chinese cooperation in the field of labor activity." Immediately after its signing, a state-owned company was established in China to invest in agricultural production, involving the lease / purchase of land in Russia.

In fact, China has received everything that it needs today - a license to digest for a "long time" (9 years) "a strategic area that is beyond geographical boundaries", plus a stable supply of energy resources from the country it will digest. He will not come for a re-license. As its theorists rightly emphasize, "effective control over a long period of time will eventually lead to the transfer of geographical boundaries." From now on, the game will be played exclusively according to Chinese rules.

This is the second consecutive brilliant strategic victory won in the classical traditions of Chinese military art - without drawing a sword, without a single shot, except for the firepower used during the exercises. unprecedented in its scale and energy , became in fact a victory parade won both in the South and in the North. The solemn military parade on Tiananmen Square on October 1, 2009, dedicated to the 60th anniversary of the PRC,

The secret of success in Chinese is to understand the psychology of the Other, to subjugate his will, to take advantage of his complexes, his ideologemes, his nobility or his meanness. In one case - to rely on the patriotic romanticism of the Taiwanese Kuomintang, their desire to become part of the Great Motherland. In the other, the absolute cynicism and irresponsibility of the Kremlin kleptocracy, this latest generation of the Soviet communist nomenklatura , the final product of its degeneration process.

The complete Hu-ization of our little Pu-Me and all of us together with them, about the inevitability of which we warned five years ago, has come to pass. And it really fits perfectly into the logic of the behavior of the Russian "elite" over the past 20-odd years. well in an article dedicated to the memory of Yegor Gaidar: A colleague Leonid Radzikhovsky recently recalled this

"DRESSING THE BALLAST - that's what all the reforms, all the efforts were like. Dropping - unnecessary "union republics" ("Central Asian underbelly"), a heavy social sphere, mediocre "Soviet industry", unbearable science and culture - the legacy of the Empire ... The result? The reduction of the whole country to the oil and gas Ridge - and its administrative projection, the Vertical. Now everything they could seem to have been dropped - but the ball still does not rise ... "

Isn't it true how organically fits and even suggests itself in this semantic series, in this vector of permanent reduction, and Eastern Siberia with the Far East. In order to maintain Russia's position in this region in the face of an obvious existential challenge, the population of the country needs to recognize itself as a people, and the disinterested and selfless authorities must offer it national guidelines and tasks. Is the Russian kleptocracy capable of this - all these, by their own apt definition, "corrupt officials and doing nothing entrepreneurs" - the second and third echelons of the former party and KGB nomenklatura?

These people, for the sake of their personal enrichment, have already "merged" one state to which they swore allegiance - the Soviet Union, and created an ugly mutant economy that allows them to continuously become even richer. For what? In order to collect and spend their treasures in a frenzy in the same West, which they have always hated and which they hate today even more for their historical defeat, for the vulnerability of their assets, for their insignificance.

Now draining Eastern Siberia and the Far East into the "Program of Cooperation for 2009-2018", into the zone of the living space of China (Siberian Zone), they stepped aside from responsibility for the fate of the region in order to continue serenely get up from their knees, chirping in a liquid city about modernization , "click on the nose" now Georgia, then Estonia and cut through billions of Chinese dollars.

“It turns out that without any open discussion, the Kremlin is foreshadowing the fate of the Russian Far East. Somehow, this dangerous and humiliating “cooperation” for Russia must be urgently stopped,” Alexei Yablokov rightly calls.

It's unlikely to stop immediately. As Tomsk-based author Alexander Lukyanov noted, one of the reasons for the “epoch-making decisions” taken in the Kremlin “could be the desire of the current Russian leadership to receive additional guarantees of the stability of its power. Chinese leaders should be well aware that in the event of a change of power in Russia, any government that will replace the current one, be it liberal, communist, nationalist, red, white, green or gray-brown-crimson speckled, will immediately raise the question of revising the terms of "cooperation", so beneficial for China, but directly contrary to Russia's national interests. Thus, China becomes a subject directly interested in the fact that power in Russia will continue to remain in the hands of a group of individuals who have so generously conceded to it the resources of Siberia and the Far East.

The group of individuals of the same blood in question recently publicly boasted that in 2011 they would sit side by side on a bench and decide among themselves how they would rule us for another 24 years. Yes, even the Chinese will not tolerate them for twenty-four years. For such a period, they simply do not have enough territories and little people to drain (reduce).

There are a thousand reasons why the anti-national, thoroughly corrupt, insignificant and vulgar, offensive to the dignity of Russia and Russians, the Pu-Me regime must go. But only the first is enough. This regime is the liquidation commission of Russia.

I don't know how he will leave. But he will definitely leave. Choosing between him and Russia, Providence will prefer Russia.