Referendum in the diaper

On February 27, a constitutional referendum was appointed in Belarus. In the atmosphere, it looks like Crimean, in content - to Tereshkovsky.

The regime is trying to introduce it to his epoch -making event, which forces the "collective West" powerlessly grinding with envy and malice. He portrays him with his Stalingrad battle. But what is the epochenation of this referendum is difficult to understand. He did not justify either gloomy forecasts or carefully and optimistic expectations. The best illustration of it was photo reports in state media about "discussions in labor groups" - humble people with dull and indifferent faces silently listen to the speaker's monologue. Most of his existence, the Lukashenko regime was a "non -mournful dictatorship", so the forced Belarusian citizens are not accustomed to portray enthusiasm.

Photo: zerkalo.io

Hints for the upcoming referendum on a change in the constitution were made several years before the election of 2020. And they sounded as strange as possible - as if Lukashenko argued with the voices in his head. So, in March 2018, he linked the overgrown changes with the development of high technologies, and one would think that all power would soon cross the robots. And in April of the same year he stated that he did not even think about any referendum: "We are not up to referendums now. We must stop this valta, who today require changes to the Constitution." Like, some hot heads are pushing him to this, but the "Maidan" will not pass. (At the same time, I went through the Russians who “are ready to take grenade launchers and fight with the whole world”, “make hysteria” and “destabilize the situation.”) However, he immediately added that he instructed to develop “proposals” by changes to the constitution, but what kind of proposals and why they were needed - did not explain.

The opposition and civil society, although then existed in some form, did not have the opportunity to impose their agenda. During the protest wave of 2017, caused by the presidential “decree on parasitism”, the topic of constitutional powers arose - in the sense that you would not have gone with your decrees, such decisions cannot be made single -handedly. But the topic did not receive further development, there was no intelligible public request.

Lukashenko’s indecision and even resistance on his part of the changes to the Constitution, which he himself first spoke about, explained to the fact that Moscow was pushing the reform in his interests. Against the backdrop of conversations in Russia, about the need for some constitutional changes, and especially after the so -called "Ultimatum Medvedev", the opinion was strengthened that Lukashenko was forced to merge and acquisition - and he bursts.

Gloomy forecasts were connected with this: a referendum will be on the issue of the loss of sovereignty.

Later, in 2020, this version was transformed: Lukashenko seemed to be forced to transit power according to the Kremlin script, forcing the country to change the political structure of the country to the Republic of Parliamentary. In order for the alleged pro -Russian majority in parliament to have a more predictable and less stubborn partner in the person of Belarus.

Such an option was carefully-optimistic even in the democratic camp: they say, it will still be a step forward in comparison with what is.

Neither one nor the other in the proposed editing. As there is no introduction of a lifelong presidency or a decrease in the age qualification "under Kolya" (youngest son Lukashenko). Even the transition from the individual Lukashenko to the collective Lukashenko, which carefully discussed the propagandists, is not in sight. All that is there is the creation of several degrees of protection for Lukashenko himself. Plus, a set of financials like a mandatory manifestation of patriotism and teaching the same children for citizens.

Back in December 2020, we wrote about the key element of the new political system , in which such a strange organ as the All -Belorussian People’s Assembly , formed according to the opaque procedure, will become a supervision institute. The only function of which is essentially to serve as a control mechanism in a situation of transit of power or if something goes wrong after it. But there is no question about transit itself.

Since these degrees of defense resemble the Nazarbayevsky model, after known events in Kazakhstan, many observers decided that the referendum would change: why then if the model is clearly non -working?

The oddity is that he was not canceled. And the passions are pumped around him. If at the last moment a surprise in the package is not found in the package, it means that all this is only one large session of the psychotherapy of the injured dictator: he wants to “win” again so that no one even picks up. That is, to survive at least a simulation of popular support. Recall for the most difficult year in his life.

In this case, Russian troops, in unprecedented numbers located in Belarus, in addition to threaten Ukraine, play the role of Lukashenko's diaper.

In addition, during the referendum in each district, at least four operational groups of security forces "with special weapons in the event of emergency situations will operate. To "get out to the polling stations" to assist the police officers there. Employees are also provided, who, if voting at home, will accompany and protect members of the commission. Moreover, the policeman will come first.

In large cities, special groups of quick response from riot police and special forces of internal troops will work.

But the opposition’s tactics are only to turn a referendum into a “vote of no confidence”, putting crosses opposite all the options proposed in the ballot. Given that no one counts the ballots in Belarus and never thought, the question is whether it would be possible to conduct an alternative calculation using the Voice platform. That is, many whether many are dared to photograph the spoiled ballot if there are no curtains on the cabs for voting and this will have to be done in fact in sight of the police officers on duty.

Despite the harmless threats, as well as the support of the Russian army, the Belarusian special forces and riot police, they are still scared. The shock does not pass. Ideologists launched a flash mob, in the framework of which the members of the election committee record and publish videos under the hashtag #moimum. According to the hashtag, mixed with shares in support of Navalny and Belarusian protests, you can see scared people, sometimes with shaking hands, informing the official language that they were not frightened by some anonymous threats, but to be a referendum.

And Grigory Azarok rummages out of the TV, “our herald”, as Lakosenko affectionately calls him: “When the European Union will finally fall apart, the peoples of Europe will write their laws under our constitution. And their midst of the district’s grunts now begin to poison the members of the district commissions - ordinary teachers and doctors. They want people to tremble, scared, sabotage ... There will be only one year for you-the 37th eternal, merciless, hot 1937. ”

I wonder if he will ever shoot himself, like, for example, Fadeev at one time? Not horrified by the atrocities, of course. And realizing that he had just served the two altar and evil old men who survived from the mind, thinking that he was building some kind of “God-imperia” with a bloody lifting.