Oscar: bets are made

The excitement around the main film award has reached a peak

Late on Sunday evening, on March 7, when Monday morning came in Moscow, the 82nd Oscar distribution ceremony was held in Los Angeles. Perennial observations prove that it is not difficult to predict four fifth laureates. The race has many preliminary borders. Films applying for the main figurines managed to compete in the last thirty times in recent months. There are not less than twenty awards of different film critics associations in America (including the Golden Globe most promoted of them). But there are also more “Lakmus” for the coming “Oscar” awards are the prizes of Hollywood guilds, the most authoritative of which are scriptwriters, actors, directors and producers. As well as the British Academy of Cinema and Television (BAFTA) - she announced her verdict a week ago.

It turns out that the Avatar turns out that the final game of Kinoid is a battle between the ex-springs of Katherine Bigelou and James Cameron and their films “Lord of the Storm” (about the life of the sappers in Baghdad) and “Avatar” (about the aggression of earthlings against the planet Pandora).

Each picture has nine nominations on a golden statuette, but, apparently, to win, Bigelou. She got most of the critical awards. She took the main prizes of guilds of directors and producers (since 1949, the year of birth of the guild of the directors, there were only six scandals when the film, which found it award, did not receive an Oscar for the best directing. The main prize of the guild of producers, according to statistics, guarantees a reward for the best film of the year in 2/3 of cases).

But if everything were so simple, the “Oscar” ceremony would not have been hinged into intrigues, would not earn crazy television ties, and the author of these lines would have long become a millionaire, ruining the London bookmakers.

The lady of the storm on the main note the three features of the current Oscar Marathon.

First. “Avatar”, with a large margin, broke all world rolling records. Revenue does not affect the distribution of Oscars. Hollywood academics are proud to support true cinema. “Titanic” and “Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” received their figurines not because they earned a lot, but because they became artistic revelation for academics. But it’s very large - today $ 2.5 billion is the financial achievements of Avatar.

The second. The collective unconscious "Oscar" academics becomes less conservative. Previously, they clearly understood the art of an epic drama with fate immersed in a stormy historical stream. Conservatism was believed to be facilitated by the fact that about half of 6 thousand voting academicians are actors who are usually alien to aesthetic revolutionary. But getting into the ten applicants for the title of the best film of the science fiction satire “District No. 9” says that academics began to think more modernly.

The third. Over the past month, when there was a vote, the confrontation between the ex-springs of Bigelow and Cameron, washed off by the yellow press, and academicians could have been drew. And they could vote differently than at the stage of nominations.

With that and to business. Let's start the forecasts with those of the main nominations where everything seems clear.

I would have almost no doubt to the sky that the best scenario will receive a reward

Mark Boal who wrote

"Lord of the storm" , and the figurine for the best script based on the published work will get

Jason Wrightman and

Sheldon Terner for the human comedy

"I would be in the sky." It was they who received the prizes of BAFTA. They also got the awards of the guild of the scriptwriters; Is it necessary to talk about its influence on the distribution of “Oscars” ”? The rivals, however, are serious. Boal has more serious. We will call first of all

Quentina Tarantino with a really original script

"Inglorious bastards." And also

Cohen brothers who composed an atypical for them

"A serious person." Note that this film, which claims to be the title of the best, has been released in our rental last Thursday.

Coen's inglorious bastards, who had previously attracted funny, bloody and criminal plots, suddenly made a film about Jewish happiness - about the modest professor Larry Gopnik from a quiet university in the Middle West, which all the troubles fell at once: the wife leaves, there is no money, the children - the gouging, the brother - psycho, the neighbors are anti -Semites, and they can leave the car, the car can be fired from work, the car can be fired. He defeated, and lawyers issued an account for immense (by the standards of 1970, when the action takes place), three thousand dollars. It is amazing not even that the Coens decided to plunge into the life of the provincial Jewish community (they themselves come from the Minnesota, and perhaps this is their childhood). It is amazing that with all funny episodes and typical monstrous Cohen characters, the film is gloomy!

A serious person dares to assume that nothing shines to Cohen. They already have two scenario Oscars - for the "Fargo" and "the elderly there is no place here." And in general, the Oscars above the roof. Enough - academics can solve. This simple argument may also work against Cameron. Moreover, it has already worked against Peter Jackson. His “lovely bones”, also published in us last week (about a girl, depended after the death of a maniac between heaven and earth, that God, rock or who is there - appreciates true love between parents and children and punishes those who attempted to attempted), are nominated only for the best second -plan male role. Although they could clearly expect to be put forward to the best script, the work of the artist, operator and certainly - visual effects and the best female role.

The best female role in the 2000s this nomination is usually boring. Films are unattractive. So far, he got out - and passed - only one of those whose actresses were nominated: this is a romantic comedy

"Julie and Julia" , where

Maryl Strip depicts a culinary document like Julia Vysotskaya. But on March 11, a much more worthy film will be released

“Education of feelings” , in the original An Education, Lone Sherfig (in the past - the supporters of the “dogma” manifesto) about the right girl with the boring London outskirts of 1961, who dreams of breaking into another world, entering Oxford, but thanks to the mature boyfriend, it acquires the experience of a completely different life - bohemian, secular, free (which is just free It comes into fashion), at first charming. (“Raising feelings” is also in the top ten to the title of the best film.) Young is nominated for the best female role

Carey Malligan . She received a BAFTA reward for this role. But whether she will be able to hold in her hands an “Oscar” figurine is a big question. And not because she has such eminent competitors as

Helen Mirren , who played Sofya Andreevna Tolstoy in

The “last station” , or the already mentioned Maryl Streep (it is nominated almost annually, for the 16th time-the unattainable “Oscar” record, but they awarded only twice, and last time in 1983). But because the female award of the Actors Guild and the mass of other preliminary prizes went

Sandra Bullock , who depicted a good Samaritan in a sports drama

The “invisible side” - The Blind Side - about the fate of the heroic, trauma and humiliation of the youth of the African American, who became the star of American football. This is another film from the top-tenants of candidates for the title of the best.

Education of feelings The best male role here is more interesting and unpredictable. The prizes of critics at first took

George Clooney for the role of a restless lonely cynic from

. But he intercepted the initiative

Jeff Bridges , who played in an unknown

The “crazy heart” of the drunk legendary country-singer, whose character is sketched from several real samples, including Chris Christofferon. And after all, it is also nominated

Morgan Freeman , who portrayed Nelson Mandel in the film of Clint Eastwood Invictus, which we promise to release in May called

"Unconquered." The remarkable is nominated

Jeremy Renner from

. And finally,

Colin Fert , who has just ahead of Bridges, Clooney and Renner in a dispute for BAFTA. The favorite of women and the sex symbol of the 90s, the Fert risked playing the famous fashion designer Tom Ford in the film-board

“Lonely man” (he left with us a week ago) of a middle-aged professor-gei from Los Angeles, who lost the incentive to live after his partner died in a car accident. This beautiful-cracked film (a combination of colors is verified in each frame, and the music is so perfectly sad as it doesn’t) develops an equally sad idea that a person is able to die due to love loss.

Invisible side the best film and directing so, so, this time, this time apply for the film

“Avatar”, “Lord of the storm”, “I would be in the sky”, “inglorious bastards”, procious (our name is translated as “treasure”, then for some reason “tight”),

“Invisible Party”, “District No. 9”, “Serious Man”, “Education of feelings” and cartoon

"Up." The first five films are nominated for Oscar for the best directing. The rest, it turns out, is partly ballast. It is hardly the best film of the year that the one that was not nominated for the directorial Oscar will be called (however, we have been faced with a situation for the first time since the 40s when there are twice as many applicants for the title of the best film).

The treasure and here is the most interesting. It can be assumed that, facing the screams of the media, before the need to choose between the “lord of the storm” and “avatar”, academics felt confusion and even irritation. After all, you need to choose from extremes. Super -expensive cinema is against a small -budget. The global rolling record holder is against a rental freak. Mass cinema - against arthouse. Technologically innovative (3D, etc.) - against emphasized traditional, psychological. Both films about the war - but how different!

In such a situation, it seems to us, three options for the development of events are possible.

First. The collective unconscious academicians will generally celebrate Cameron and give everything to Bigelou. It can be assumed that some colleagues of Cameron, directors and producers, are not too happy about the Avatar supercassa success. BAFTA has already created something similar, giving Bigelow six prizes, and only two secondary Cameron - for the artist’s work and visual effects.

Second. Academicians, which in the case of Oscar is a rarity, will compromise and present figurines for the best film and directing two different paintings. Usually they are received the same.

District No. 9 is possible, Bigelou will be awarded for the directing, and the film of the year, by the totality of achievements, is nevertheless recognized as “Avatar”.

Third. So don't get it to anyone! Both factory films will be in the flight, which will get only a second-significant zilch.

Up, who is most likely to win in this situation? It is doubtful that “I would be in the sky”: the film for Oscar is too chamber, intimate. But the “inglorious bastards” of course, of course, have a chance, because they received a prize for the best ensemble of performers from the Actors Guild, that in her language is a synonym for the concepts of “Best Film of the Year” (and the actors, recall, among voting academicians). And probably, it is not necessary to write off the accounts of Lee Daniels Precious, which in Russia does not intend to show (there are only two of them in the top-ten, still an “invisible side”). This drama is about the fate of a 16-year-old thick native of Harlem, a second time pregnant from a native, not the best in the world of dad. She is relevant, touching, took at the North American festival No. 1 to Toronto a prize of the audience sympathies, which traditionally opens the way to one of the Oscars, and besides the two main figurines, claims to be four more, including the main and unhealthy female roles. This drama will take and in the final of the "Oscar" ceremony Ka-A-Ak will shoot!

"Oscar" record holders of all years
The leaders in the number of nominations are “Titanic” and “All about Eve” - 14 each. Even seven films, including the first part of “The Lord of the Rings” and “Chicago”, were 13 each.
By the number of the awards received, the Titanic, Ben Gur and the Lord of the Rings: the Return of the King is the lead - 11 each, as well as the Wester History, which has the same 11, but with a reservation (10 plus a special, usually taken into account by the Oscar movie historians for choreography). Next are the “slurry”, “last emperor” and “English patient” - 9 each.

The New Times asked experts and simply famous people the question:
"Who would you give an Oscar in the main nominations?"

The respondents were: film critic Andrei Plakhov, directors Fedor Bondarchuk and Igor Voloshin, actor Peter Fedorov, actress Ekaterina Vulichenko, producer Tatyana Trubnikova, TV presenter Tina Kandelaki and showman Timur Batrutdinov. This is how the voices were distributed

Nomination "Best Film"
"Avatar" - 4
"Inglorious bastards" - 2
"District No. 9" - 1
"Education of feelings" - 1

Nomination "Best Director"
Katherine Bigelou, "Lord of the Storm" - 3
Quentin Tarantino, “inglorious bastards” - 3
James Cameron, "Avatar" - 1
Jason Wrightman, “I would be in the sky” - 1

Nomination "Best Actor"
George Clooney, "I would be in the sky" - 4
Colin Fert, Lonely Man - 2
Jeff Bridges, "Crazy Heart" - 1
Jeremy Renner, "Lord of the Storm" - 1

Nomination "Best Actress"
Helen Mirren, "Last Station" - 4
Maryl Streep, Julie and Julia - 2
Sandra Bullock, "Invisible Party" - 1
Carey Malligan, "Education of feelings" - 1

Nomination "Best original scenario"
Quentin Tarantino, "inglorious bastards" - 8m

Prepared by Evgeny Levkovich