My crises

Think it's easy to be a currency speculator? The dollar goes up like crazy, one day, then another, then a third. And at this moment you have to get up and go to sell. So I thought in 1998. But this time it will be worse.

The economic crisis in the Soviet Union was very extended in time. Year by year, there were fewer goods in stores, more and more products fell under the "coupons". "Norms" were set for meat, sugar, butter, cheese, eggs, and so on. In principle, it was impossible to die of hunger - public catering has always worked. In the student canteen, one could eat for one ruble a day, and the scholarship was enough for food.

Therefore, the liberalization of trade (Gaidar's) from January 1, 1992 should be considered the first "shock" crisis. I remember that I went into the grocery store of the Akademgorodok Shopping Center and looked at the sausage that appeared. The price was fantastic - a kilogram cost about the same as a monthly salary (I don’t remember the exact numbers, unfortunately).

These prices were set by completely Soviet people - the heads of meat-packing plants and commercial enterprises. Until recently, they had party tickets in their pockets, and now they behaved like sharks of capitalism. Later, these same Soviet people bought up vouchers for next to nothing in order to buy out the enterprises they ran. Slogans are slogans, and business is business.

A little later, the printing press was launched, and wages rushed into hopeless competition with prices. During the year, the ruble depreciated 26 times. Everything was priced in dollars, and in stores the price tags were cu. - "conditional units", which were tied to the dollar.

I remember that already a year in 1993 the cost of a one-room apartment in Novosibirsk was two or three thousand dollars. I also remember how one taxi driver bragged about how he "deceived" the Americans. They asked how much it would cost to get from the River Station to Akademgorodok, and he mustered up the audacity to say: “Two dollars!” In reality, such a trip cost two or three times cheaper. I think the Americans did not even understand how they were deceived.

Surprisingly, the events of October 1993 had very little effect on the dollar. Apparently, at that time, economic life in the country was already on its own, and political life was on its own.

To be honest, I have more than one "black spot" in my biography. I was not only a political strategist, but also a broker and a financial speculator. True, he worked more “for his uncle” and with not very large sums.

The layman is always a victim, he starts buying the currency when it's too late, inflates the rate, and then it falls

I well remember the first "Black Tuesday": in October 1994, the dollar rose sharply by 30%. At the very beginning of growth, my partner and I went and bought dollars, then for two days we watched the growing panic. Then, as now, ordinary people rushed to buy dollars. In such stories, the layman is always a victim, he starts buying currency when it's too late, inflates the rate, and then it falls. It is important to catch the moment when the layman "dries up", and at this moment get rid of the currency. According to my observations, this happens on the third day from the start of the panic. Think it's easy to be a currency speculator? The dollar goes up like crazy, one day, then another, then a third. And at this moment you have to get up, go and sell.

But the most memorable for me was 1998. Then I accumulated "assets" - about thirty thousand dollars, I guess. It's ridiculous by today's standards, but then the dollar was more expensive. True, a one-room apartment in Novosibirsk cost twenty thousand already.

It was clear that there would be a crisis. I “diversified” my savings: I invested part of it in GKOs (borrowed to the state), and bought some dollars and put them in a safe in a friend’s office. And he went to Irkutsk to his parents.

The state then "built" a GKO pyramid - it issued new obligations in order to pay off the old ones. In principle, a similar pyramid was created in the USA - and nothing, they live with it for decades. But we had a completely different level of interest rates, and the national debt grew like a snowball.

I assumed, in my naivety, that the state would choose between "freezing" GKOs (default) and devaluation. But never play games with the Russian state - it has chosen both of two bad options. By the way, I see something similar now.

The problem, of course, is that in a moment of crisis, a lot of people (and corporations) begin to solve their personal problems. Their motivation is so great that the state at this moment begins to fulfill their wishes, instead of taking care of the economy, population, and financial stability. You see, all these are some abstract concepts, but here are concrete people, your friends and partners, and their business is on fire.

Therefore, of course, at first, whoever needed to be allowed to escape from the T-bills, and then they refused to pay for them. And another ruble collapsed.

Like today, I had a feeling of acute bewilderment. Well, okay, one and a half times. Well, in two - back and forth. But at four?

Later, they told me: bankers whose banks were “covered up” went into all serious trouble - they withdrew all the rubles (their own and others') from their accounts, bought dollars with them and fled the country.

It is clear that in such a business model, the dollar exchange rate at which it has to be bought does not matter.

The government of Yevgeny Primakov, who became prime minister at the height of the crisis, looked at what was happening with Olympian calm and did nothing. Later, this idleness was credited to him. Perhaps right.

As in Soviet times, shopping was akin to hunting - people happily told stories of prey

And so I returned to Novosibirsk, and the GKOs were “frozen”. True, there was good news - “individuals” were promised to be returned. And returned - later and depreciated. And in the company of my acquaintance, the management arranged a check - and what is it that we have here in the safes. And I experienced some wonderful days when you seem to have money, but they are not available to you.

At this time, our population woke up and poured into the shops - to buy everything. Unlike today's "consumer boom", this was an echo of the "echo of war". The people stocked up primarily with flour, cereals, matches, and soap. Then a lot of this goodness was lost from flour worms.

However, they raked both household appliances and dishes. A friend of mine gleefully bought a nice $17 telescope.

At the beginning of September, I had a wedding scheduled (married for the first time). The dollars were returned to me, and preparations could begin. I remember buying wine. I come to the wholesale market, and there are already new price tags. We go to the supermarket - there is the same wine, but twice cheaper. We dig out the entire window. As in Soviet times, shopping was akin to hunting - people happily told stories of prey.

After 1998, I decided to “tie up” with finances. Nerves, they are somehow more expensive.

The crisis of 2008 was much easier for me. On the one hand, I felt a bit like Cassandra. Do you remember that Russia then was a “safe haven” that would not be affected by the crisis? I have already worked in Taiga.info and wrote a column

“What threatens Russia with the crisis”

. The crisis of 2014 is a direct continuation of the crisis of 2008, so you can read, everything is relevant there.

On the other hand, since after 2004 I also quit political technologies, I didn’t have to worry about savings - they simply didn’t exist. There were two small children and a wife sitting with them. I merged with the majority in his economic behavior - there will be a day, there will be food.

In 2013, the first signs of a new crisis appeared, in 2014 Russia went to it by leaps and bounds. Ukrainian history and sanctions exacerbated the problems, the oil crash finished off the faltering economy.

I would like to add two things to what I wrote about 2008. First, this time it will be worse. At best, oil prices will recover, and we will sag from one crisis to another. In a more real one, they will not recover. And then we will be forced to earn with our skill and work. And we learned it.

Secondly, we are all to blame for the crisis. We, by our indifference, allowed a deceitful and corrupting political and economic system to exist. Liars and grabbers prospered, and we rejoiced that something fell to us.

But in general, in Russia, man is a wolf to man, and no one trusts anyone. The economy will not grow on such a foundation.