Nuclear pump

North Koreans are dangerous, but not crazy. The attack of aggression fits into the logic of their foreign policy and internal struggle for power

After North Korea's nuclear test last week, the generals will finally convince North Korean leader Kim Jong Il that a new long-range missile must be prepared for launch. In response, South Korea will send its fleet to the shores of the DPRK. Since the launched rocket will fly over Japan again, the Japanese will shoot it down. In response, North Korea will shoot down an American reconnaissance aircraft flying over its territory. Such a scenario for the outbreak of a nuclear war near the Russian border is drawn by military experts.

As long as 650,000 southerners backed by 30,000 US troops fight off a massive advance from the north, Beijing could march on Pyongyang, says Stratfor's Roger Baker. By that time, a counter-offensive from the south would come there. It is possible that the leadership of the DPRK will take extreme measures and undermine its nuclear arsenal in order to achieve maximum destruction of the forces of the advancing enemy. The Americans will respond by firing cruise missiles at Pyongyang. A radioactive cloud will cover the Russian Far East. Several million North Korean refugees will rush to China, Russia and South Korea.

“The war will be a disaster! The world economy will collapse! This is crazy!” exclaims Daniel Pinkston, Korea expert at the International Crisis Group (ICG). But in the past week, it sometimes seemed like everything was heading in that direction. Pyongyang successfully tested an atomic bomb, withdrew from the truce that ended the Korean War in 1953, and then spent a week frightening the world with a cannonade of tactical missiles. The United States, Japan and South Korea put their troops on full alert. “Pyongyang's rhetoric made them feel like they were crazy,” Pinkston says. - However, the military situation in the DPRK was surprisingly calm. The [April] statements about mobilization and military preparations were formidable but empty words.”

After the withdrawal from the negotiations and the armistice of 1953, everyone started talking about war tomorrow. But South Korea has never signed this document anyway - the Americans did it. Andrey Lankov, a professor at Kukmin University in Seoul, sees no problem in the fact that now North Korea will no longer be a formal participant in the truce. “How many times have they pulled out of negotiations? As they left, they will return, ”the expert says. According to him, Pyongyang is simply attracting attention again: “We are bad and unpredictable. See, we're crazy!"

Experts have long explained that the DPRK usually does something unpleasant in order to get something in return - for example, humanitarian aid. But the stakes in this game have steadily grown, and now Pyongyang is encroaching on the main prize: "They want the US to recognize them as a nuclear power and thereby change the status of the negotiations," says Stratfor's Baker.

SCARECROW INTERNATIONAL

They started talking about the war when the DPRK promised to respond with force to the attempts of the enemy fleets to stop the civilian ships of North Korea. Seoul has joined the American Initiative for the Non-Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction (PSI). The 94 PSI member states are required to stop and search in international waters ships that may be carrying nuclear weapons or missile components. Then threats came from Pyongyang.

True, there is little sense from PSI. “A couple of years ago, a cargo ship sailing from North Korea to Yemen was stopped at sea. They began to inspect - the holds are clogged with medium-range missiles "Nodon". The Yemeni team took out the invoices and said that they bought the goods before the sanctions against the DPRK, says Roger Baker. “The US military not only apologized, US Navy ships escorted the ship to a Yemeni port and helped deliver the missiles.” According to the analyst, even if the North Koreans start to defend themselves, this will not lead to any war. Ten years ago, the Koreans already fought at sea, but things did not go any further. It will work this time too.

The second time, Baker continues, the Koreans got away with selling technology was when Israel bombed a nuclear facility in Syria. Pyongyang suddenly announced a halt to all nuclear development, apparently realizing that North Korean targets would be bombed next. “The United States said that the object in Syria is very similar to the Korean one. However, the Koreans were not even scolded,” the expert explains.

A year earlier, in October 2006, North Korea tested its first nuclear bomb. However, instead of harsh sanctions, Pyongyang received hundreds of thousands of tons of fuel oil and thousands of bags of rice in less than six months. The Koreans are convinced that they can do anything.

This year, Pyongyang decided to raise the stakes again. In early April, the North Koreans again tested a ballistic missile - it flew over Japan and fell into the Pacific Ocean. They then withdrew from nuclear disarmament talks, kicked out International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors, reopened the Yongbyon weapons-grade plutonium plant, and finally detonated the bomb. “Now more than ever, Koreans want negotiations. They will not feel safe as long as they have a bad relationship with the US,” explains ICG's Pinkston. In other words, saber-rattling, the DPRK seeks to conclude peace instead of the existing truce. At least they have been trying to achieve this for decades: Pyongyang does not want the Damocles sword of war to always hang over it.

It is obvious that the negotiations within the "six", which includes the United States, North Korea, China, South Korea, Russia and Japan, have reached an impasse. “We need a new, fresh thinking about North Korea, something like during the detente [in relations between the USSR and the US],” said Kim Tai Wu, vice president of the Korea Institute for Defense Analysis. However, according to him, Seoul is afraid that if the US compromises and recognizes Pyongyang's right to nuclear weapons in exchange for non-proliferation guarantees, an arms race will start in the region. The South is already considering building its own nuclear bomb. And in Tokyo, thoughts are being expressed about delivering preemptive strikes against the DPRK.

HUMAN FACTOR

So far, Pyongyang has threatened the world with a bomb. But now he is also mastering a new technology, tested by his neighbors in the "axis of evil" - hostage-taking. On June 4, the Central Court of the DPRK is to pass sentence on two American TV journalists Eun Lee and Laura Lin. According to Pyongyang, they illegally crossed the Sino-North Korean border while making a film about refugees from North Korea. The TV channels for which the journalists worked claim that Korean border guards detained them on the Chinese side.

Koreanist Andrey Lankov is sure that the journalists at the trial will come out with repentance, which will be shown on TV so that the people know that the enemy does not sleep. “They will be given terms, and when they decide that it is time, they will be released as a gesture of goodwill,” the expert believes.

But information wars are being waged on the domestic front as well. For the Politburo, nuclear missile tests are a strategic issue on which the regime's survival depends. According to Pinkston, now the DPRK is on the verge of a change of elites - everyone is thinking about what will happen after the death of Kim Jong Il.

Now no one knows exactly to what extent Kim, who periodically disappears from television screens for a long time, leads the country. It is assumed that during his long illnesses, decisions are made by a military group - something like a junta in which there is no clear leader. “In times of uncertainty, various groups want to assert themselves by acting from a position of strength,” Pinkston explains the behavior of Koreans. “So even the most reform-minded leaders have to hide behind a hawkish mask.” In other words, whoever is tougher with America is more likely to become Kim's successor.

True, many experts believe that North Koreans are no longer buying into propaganda. Lankov compares the DPRK with the USSR at different stages of development. Ideology and entourage of late Stalinism. The political mood of the population is like in times of stagnation: no one believes in anything anymore, but no one speaks openly. And in the economy, the market capitalism of the early 90s is completely: the black market is flourishing, ”the expert says.

Corruption is thriving in the country, comparable to African or Central Asian: almost any contact with an official is accompanied by a bribe. Much that is formally prohibited is allowed for a fee. “If you want to cross the border with smuggling - $ 300, and crossed. On foot - $50. Caught with the Voice of America in the receiver - $100, and no one heard anything. If you want not to go to work, but to trade in the market, you give two monthly salaries, and there are attendance marks in the report cards, ”says Lankov.

And yet today the people are still too dependent on the top, which supplies them with warmth and food. Daniel Pinkston says sentiment will change as this addiction subsides. “People will ask themselves more often: “What is the party doing for me?” the expert says. And the party will not have an answer.