Running in place

Last Wednesday, when Prime Minister Putin held a government meeting at which he wanted to put an end to the debate about the so-called Concept 2020, some White House employees spent time in one of the neighboring cafes. When the news finally began to arrive, the officials were confused. At first, ripping out each other's mobile phones with open news sites, they tried to understand whether the Concept was approved or not. And then they began to ask each other: “So who won something?” And they shrugged their shoulders. It was about whose point of view - the head of the Ministry of Finance Alexei Kudrin or the head of the Ministry of Economy Elvira Nabiullina - was ultimately supported by Vladimir Putin.

It is no coincidence that White House officials were nervous: Putin's government meeting can be called historic. For the first time since the default, a decision was made to raise taxes. And for the first time in the history of modern Russia, a long-term plan for the country's economic development has been approved. No one believed that this would happen: the Plan-2020 has been discussed for two years already, and its two main authors - the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Economy - could not agree among themselves. In short, the Ministry of Economy proposed to boost economic growth with tax cuts and Stabilization Fund funds, if they were invested in industry and expensive projects. No way - answered the Ministry of Finance.

The position of the Ministry of Finance was simple: first reduce social spending, then taxes, and then suddenly there will be nothing to pay pensions and salaries to state employees. Well, you can’t touch the Stabilization Fund at all. But during Putin's presidency, the social obligations of the state grew and grew - and often faster than the economy grew. And when Putin proposed to write the Plan-2020, he, in fact, faced a choice: to give a new impetus to the economy, or, without risking, continue to pay regularly and raise pensions and salaries. And last week, in the midst of the financial crisis, Putin instructed the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Economy to come to an agreement, giving them 48 hours to do so.

On Wednesday, the document as a whole was adopted, and the result of the government meeting surprised everyone: taxes will not only not decrease, but will even increase, and Putin promises to compensate businesses from the Stabilization Fund for these losses. Formally, victory is on Kudrin's side: the unified social tax in a slightly different form will be increased by almost a third from 2010, and this is the only specific decision made. But in the approved Concept-2020, there is still a rapid growth of GDP and foreign investment. For this, according to Newsweek, Putin intends, if the price of oil allows, in the same 2010 to reduce another tax to 12% - VAT for three years. In fact, Putin supported the Ministry of Economy with its growth, and the Ministry of Finance with its social spending, although one contradicts the other.

GREAT DEBUTT IDEA

The idea to write a long-term economic concept was born in the summer of 2006. At that time, no one thought about the financial crisis, oil was becoming more expensive, the competition between successors Sergey Ivanov and Dmitry Medvedev had just begun in the country. At one of the State Councils devoted to regional development, the governors complained to President Putin that the regions are developing very differently - both in terms of pace and priorities: some have medicine, others have culture, others have industry. And Putin answered: that's right, let's write a document that will become a single reference point for everyone.

The then head of the Ministry of Economy German Gref was appointed responsible for the development of the document, but things did not go well, because Gref, according to Newsweek, objected to the very idea and said that it makes sense to adopt such a document only after the elections - under the new president. According to some reports, Gref's stubbornness on this issue was one of the reasons for his resignation in September 2007, and in November Putin returned to his idea. Firstly, a source in the government explains to Newsweek, "a fresh economic idea was needed - the potential for doubling GDP was gone, national projects were being completed." Secondly, the elections were in full swing, their main slogan was the slogan "Putin's plan is Russia's victory", and the Kremlin economists Igor Shuvalov and Arkady Dvorkovich wanted to fill it with concrete meaning.

The government immediately received an order to write a plan. And then the eternal dispute between the Ministry of Economy and the Ministry of Finance - whether to reduce taxes or not - immediately fell on suitable ground. After waiting a month, Putin returned the document to the Kremlin for revision. “If [Prime Minister Viktor] Zubkov cannot organize the work, let Shuvalov and Dvorkovich write themselves,” a government source recalls Putin's logic. In January 2008, the development of the first version of the concept was completed, and on February 8, Putin pompously presented it as Plan 2020 at an extended meeting of the State Council with deputies, ministers and senators.

ALL AT ONCE

That Putin’s speech struck many observers with projecting: by 2020, to reduce mortality by more than 1.5 times, raise average life expectancy to 75 years, expand the share of the middle class to 60-70% (this is like in Europe or America), “like at least four times” to increase labor productivity. And all this along with an increase in pensions and benefits, investments in medicine and education, and an increase in military spending. "Everything at once" is Putin's main slogan, a source in the government explains to Newsweek, "especially when it comes to political documents."

And the declaration was certainly political: it was obvious to everyone that Putin was demonstrating his strength in this way before leaving the Kremlin. The speech for Putin was written in the Kremlin in parallel with the keynote speech for Dmitry Medvedev, who was preparing to become president. And before speaking at the economic forum in Krasnoyarsk, Medvedev himself changed this speech in order to adapt to Putin. “We didn’t understand then,” recalls a government employee, “was it a program competition or what?”

A month later, the same ambitious figures were included in the first version of the Plan-2020. The Plan also promised to become one of the world leaders in terms of the quality of education, halve unemployment, quadruple inflation, and also maintain GDP growth at a high 6.5% per year. And all these forecast indicators were approved at a government meeting last Wednesday. The financial crisis, according to most experts, finally turned these plans into a utopia. “The program has absolutely lost its relevance,” says Igor Nikolaev from FBK, “growth will not exceed 4%, and taking into account the decisions made [to increase the UST], it may be even lower.”

BATTLE FOR VAT

Recently, Finance Minister Kudrin teetered on the verge of being fired. At least three weeks ago, this possibility was discussed both in the Kremlin and in the government. It was all about VAT. Newsweek has already written that a heated discussion on one of the key issues of the 2020 Plan - VAT reduction - fell exactly on the first wave of the crisis. And the resignation of the minister, it seemed then, was the only way out: everyone was in favor of lowering the VAT, and only Kudrin refused to sign this decision.

It's not that Kudrin was opposed to cutting taxes in general. He only argued that it was impossible to help businesses with tax breaks with such social spending. Technically, the coordination of the 2020 Program looks like this: all ministries either sign that they have no objections, or submit the so-called protocol of disagreements to the government apparatus. Therefore, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Economy could not agree among themselves: to subscribe means to take responsibility for specific forecast terms and indicators. Back in March, they say in the White House, at one of the meetings, Putin said that the draft Concept 2020 already exists, and it remains only to finish it, and Kudrin and Nabiullina, as soon as they left the door, exclaimed in unison: “There is no project!”

Reduce VAT Kudrin persuaded the whole world. First Deputy Prime Minister Shuvalov, for example, allegedly convinced the minister that the so-called shortfall (from VAT reduction) budget revenues could be compensated, among other things, by increasing tax collection. Increasing tax discipline is a political factor, Kudrin objected, it is beyond his competence. Nabiullina was supported in this tough dispute by powerful state lobbyists - industrial vice-premier Igor Sechin and head of Russian Technologies Sergey Chemezov. Their motives are clear: it is in industry that the greatest added value is created, and with the reduction of VAT, incomes in these industries will rise sharply. “[VAT reduction] will make state corporations profitable, and without them they are just big inefficient state unitary enterprises,” a government official explains the logic of the lobbyists.

The VAT issue came to a head on 18 September. Putin, as if he had nothing to do with it, flew to Sochi, and the decision fell to Medvedev. According to Newsweek, at that meeting, he first criticized the cabinet for "inability to deal with systemic tasks", and then suggested discussing the VAT reduction later - in early 2009. Now, two government sources confirm at once that a decision on VAT will be made in January . The most likely scenario: the business, as it wanted, will receive a discount of up to 12% - but not forever, but for three years. This is what Putin seems to have had in mind when he said last Wednesday that "actions will be taken ... to avoid an increase in the overall tax burden on business." Perhaps at the expense of the Stabilization Fund, Putin stressed. But if the price of oil is below $70, there will be no reduction in VAT, a source in the government makes it clear: "Then that's it."

ABSOLUTE PRIORITY

Back in the spring, before the inauguration, Medvedev and Putin agreed on a set of general principles for the future, says a senior White House official. One of them is that taxes should not go up, but should ideally go down. But the problem of low pensions has also long been formulated as a political one, recalls Yevgeny Gontmakher from the Institute of Contemporary Development: there are 37 million pensioners in the country with an average pension of 4,500 rubles, and the price of the minimum food basket has increased by 20% over the past six months. This means that inflation for pensioners is almost twice as high as the official one.

“At the last moment, out of desperation, it was decided to take money [for raising pensions] from business,” Gontmakher sums up. The issue of VAT has been postponed, but another fundamental issue of the Plan-2020 - how to form the pension system - was suddenly resolved to everyone's surprise. The unified social tax will be converted into insurance fees and from 2010 will increase from 26% to 34% of the wage fund. The decision to raise the UST will inevitably have consequences, says Gontmakher: wages will decrease in the country. That is, the wage fund will remain the same, and people will receive less in their hands.

But the Plan-2020, contrary to all forecasts, has nevertheless moved forward. And on one side of the scale - the already made decision to significantly raise the UST, and on the other - promises to compensate businesses for these losses. Pensioners can definitely breathe easier, and Putin made it clear to everyone: no matter what he says, social obligations are an absolute priority for him. Business is grumbling, no one expects rapid economic growth anymore, the government says that a recession has begun, and the forecast figures for the Plan-2020 cause a grin among officials. Until the government begins to reduce other taxes, the so-called innovative development scenario, the only acceptable one, as written in the 2020 Plan, remains more of a declaration of intent than a specific program of action. “Words are one thing, deeds are another,” sums up Gontmakher.

Stabilization Fund

Planned to print

Created in early 2004 to save money for a rainy day. Surplus profits from the sale of oil go to the Stabilization Fund. The additional meaning of the idea is that there is no extra money in the economy and prices do not rise.

Funds of the Stabilization Fund - almost 5 trillion rubles. – invested in international markets. The Ministry of Finance has always been categorically against the use of the Stabilization Fund, and the Ministry of Economy and lobbyists offered to invest this money in the economy.

The essence of a possible solution: to cover the hole in the budget, which will arise from the reduction of VAT, with funds from the Stabilization Fund.

Business, economic growth "?"

Budget, social obligations "+"

Unified social tax (UST)

Decided to raise

Introduced in 2001 with a base rate of 35.6%. The rate was set regressively - the higher the employee's salary, the less the employer pays. The idea was to bring the wage fund out of the shadows. For the same purpose, the base rate was then reduced to 26%. The "whitewashing" of salaries still did not happen.

The essence of the decision: from January 1, 2010, to increase the fees that made up the UST, up to 34%. The pension contribution itself - 26% of these 34% - will be taken from everyone, but at the same time from an amount not exceeding 415,000 rubles. That is, if your annual earnings are higher, then you will still pay - and receive a pension in old age - from this amount. Thus, those who receive no more than 34,600 rubles will receive a pension commensurate with their salary. per month. And the more employees with lower salaries in the company, the higher its relative costs.

Business, economic growth "-"

Budget, social obligations "+"

Pension Fund of Russia (PFR)

Decided to replenish

Since 2001, he has been managing the pension funds of citizens , which are accumulated on personal accounts. The PFR is a piggy bank of all pensions in the country, current and future. He gives out pensions already today. The problem is that the UST has never been able to provide the fund's budget, and this hole is growing. The government pointed out that if this hole is not closed, then the PFR can be closed altogether and return to the Soviet scheme. The pension reform will fail: it will be impossible to accumulate a personal pension and receive additional income from this money.

The essence of the decision: the PFR deficit will be closed at the expense of business. Business will pay more by 1 trillion rubles. in year.

Business, economic growth "-"

Budget, social obligations "+"

Value Added Tax (VAT)

It is planned to reduce

One of the main taxes , introduced in 1992, has been paid at a rate of 18% since 2004. In short, this is a tax on the income of a businessman - from what he earned on any transaction. Hence the name. For the past three years, businesses have been fighting to reduce the tax to 12-13%. Based on 2010, the budget would have lost about 1 trillion rubles. In 2005, the Ministry of Finance defended the rate. Now the Ministry of Finance says that the reduction of VAT will lead to inflation - an increase in prices by 3.8% per year.

The essence of the decision under discussion: from 2010 to reduce VAT to 12% for three years. To prevent this, says a source in the government, can only fall in oil prices.

Business, economic growth "+"

Budget, social obligations "-"