False finish

The entire country is rising to support Vladimir Putin. Left activist Ilya Ponomarev, who heads the regional list of A Just Russia, published a telegram in his online diary addressed to the management, trade union committee and council of veterans of the local railway administration. They were required to bring the required number of “workers and veterans of collectives, members of their families…” to the rally for Putin last Saturday. The interests of United Russia coincided with the interests of the governors, who need to ensure a high result for Putin’s party in the elections, Ponomarev explains. Until the campaign has officially begun, the remaining parties have no choice but to complain about their formidable competitor to the press and through the authorities without much success.

For small parties, a relatively free life will begin only this week: from November 3, they will be able to advertise themselves in print and on TV. At the referendum “For or against Putin,” the election campaign itself begins, and Putin’s party starts with a huge head start. But the higher the tension and the closer the elections, the more unpredictable their outcome now looks. Despite the fact that Putin topped the United Russia list, all of its main competitors - the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, the Liberal Democratic Party and A Just Russia - today still have a chance of entering parliament.

The goal of Putin’s relay race in cities is to convince the population to come to the polls and vote for “United Russia.” Kamchatka began. The meeting took place on board a large nuclear-powered freezer trawler. Everyone said that Putin “in one form or another” should remain at the helm. “This is a guarantee that our families will live safely on shore while we work at sea,” said Captain Igor Zolotavin. “Where is the guarantee that the new person will also support physical education and sports?” - asked Honored Trainer of Russia Lyudmila Agranovskaya.

In Vologda, Putin's supporters gathered in the drama theater. “There was an order, places were reserved for enterprises,” says the former head of the Vologda City Duma, Alexander Lukichev, also on the side of A Just Russia. “They were told that if the seats were empty, there would be questions for them.”

A teacher at one of the Pskov universities, Mikhail Zhikharevich, explained, speaking at the monument to Princess Olga in the center of Pskov, that Putin must definitely influence Russian politics after his departure, and he was supported by a doctor from the regional hospital and the director of the House of Pioneers. "United Russia" has nothing to do with these rallies, Zhikharevich explained to Newsweek. Rather, the regional government, he hints: “We have a small city. I know a lot of people. Of course, we also contacted the administration.” The governor’s wife, Natalya Tolokonskaya, was also a co-founder of the “Novosibirsk Residents for Putin” movement.

Meanwhile, United Russia's competitors - all except the LDPR, its traditional ally - came under severe pressure. In Kaliningrad, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation entered into an agreement with the land transport department to place stickers on the sides of buses and trolleybuses, but then transport workers were called to the administration and, under threat of revocation of their license, they were prohibited from putting stickers; and they broke the agreement, complains Oleg Kulikov, a member of the presidium of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. He tells similar stories about other regions. The Tomsk Election Commission received complaints about illegal campaigning by the LDPR and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation: the LDPR banners were eventually recognized as legal, but the Communist Party advertising was not.

The Union of Right Forces records provocations on the ground. Someone plastered Ulyanovsk with leaflets stating that the Union of Right Forces is hiring AIDS patients as agitators. In Orenburg, houses are painted with the words: “SPS is not afraid of dirt.” Similar stories are in Stavropol and Saratov. Last week in St. Petersburg, a scandal spread across the entire country when a member of the “A Just Russia” faction of the St. Petersburg Legislative Assembly, Alexey Timofeev, took the floor immediately after the party leader Sergei Mironov and called on the party to dissolve itself, because “the president’s decision [to head the United Russia list] - a clear signal: ...there is no need for [our] party.” And then it turned out that several large St. Petersburg newspapers had received instructions from the city administration by e-mail in advance - the night before - how to cover Timofeev’s proposal in a negative way for A Just Russia.

For Putin, these Duma elections are extremely important, says a source close to the Kremlin, and the result must be appropriate. The game is one-sided. The governors have every reason to be very nervous: on average, less than 60% of the votes in the region - this will be a failure, explains an official close to United Russia. Sociologists from VTsIOM so far predict the party to receive 55% of the votes. By heading the list, Putin broke the inertial scenario, explains political scientist Alexander Kynev, but in the end the so-called protest electorate may act even more actively than previously thought.

The question is who will those who are against mainly vote for: only for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, which is considered the main opposition party, or for other small parties. Even the Union of Right Forces, which has been considered an outsider since the very beginning of the campaign, still has some - albeit very illusory - chances of getting into the Duma, a source at the United Russia headquarters believes: “They are in the shadows. We just don’t see them today [in opinion polls].”

The Communists will certainly overcome the 7 percent barrier. For Sergei Mironov’s party, the “events of the first of October” - when the president announced his decision - were a knockout, but party activists have no doubts: even though their ratings have fallen, they are alive and will still get into the Duma.

In fact, voters in different regions responded differently to the challenge Putin presented to them. In Chelyabinsk, paradoxically, Mironov’s party did not lose, but the position of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation decreased, notes the head of the Ural Analytical Center Artem Perehrist. The fact is, he explains, that at one time the voices of those who previously supported Rodina went over to the communists - they were generally for Putin and after the United Russia congress they joined it. The situation has not changed fundamentally, says sociologist from Arkhangelsk Vadim Treskin: “A Just Russia retains the core of its electorate, and they will get 7% - here [local business and elites] will help them.” “We are being bombed with might and main,” complains the second secretary of the regional committee of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation in Karelia, Alexander Stepanov. - They [in United Russia] have a task of gaining more than 50%. You can’t squeeze out any more here.”

The main intrigue is still “A Just Russia”. After all, they are “like new.” In Voronezh, for example, their rating is rapidly falling, admits sociologist Alexander Romanovich from the Qualitas center: from 10% in August to 4.9% in October. The scandals surrounding the formation of the list also played a role: when the mayor of Voronezh, the fair-Russian Boris Skrynnikov, did not find himself on it, he immediately announced that he would support United Russia; newspapers close to the city administration also immediately stopped fighting with Putin's party, and the regional press stopped criticizing the mayor. In St. Petersburg, the Socialist-Revolutionaries currently gain 10% and can claim 15–18% of the votes, sociologist Roman Mogilevsky believes: “So far, all four parties [ER”, “SR”, Communist Party of the Russian Federation, LDPR] have a chance.”

The outcome of the elections is not predetermined, and everything depends on how the parties and officials conduct the final part of the campaign, sociologists and experts say. “United Russia” is also not easy. “They are limited by Putin,” explains a source at the Socialist Revolutionary headquarters. “They can’t campaign for Putin and for reducing housing and communal services tariffs, for Putin and for raising wages.” Putin is a general topic, but locally people have specific problems, and there is still time to organize a discussion on them, agrees a source at United Russia headquarters.

The Mironovites themselves expect that in United Russia people will now see, as Mironov puts it, “the ghost of the CPSU” and vote against it. Moreover, the further it goes, the more nervous the governors will be and the more active and persistent United Russia officials and activists will be putting pressure on voters to encourage them to come to the polls and support Putin. During the 1996 presidential elections, people were frightened by the communists, Kynev reminds, and now it may turn out to be “1996 in reverse”: many will be afraid of “United Russia”.

There will be a lot of mass events, promises an official associated with United Russia: “They will begin to grow like a snowball.” The same “A Just Russia” will continue to rely on popular figures on the ground; and such regions, according to the calculations of political scientist Kynev, are from 20 to 25.

Who exactly Putin sees himself after May 2008, no one today can definitely say. But the very high - around 70% - result of United Russia in the elections in December opens up the widest opportunities for maneuver. Many sources associated with the party believe in this regard that there will be no intrigue. “We have 53% according to polls,” explains a Newsweek interlocutor who oversees United Russia’s campaign in one of the regions. He has no doubt that on December 2 the result will be about 70%: “Everything, absolutely all means will be used.”

Interview

“WE WILL DEAL THE MAIN BLOW AT ER”

Vladimir Putin’s decision to head the United Russia list put the leader of A Just Russia, Sergei Mironov, in the most difficult position. But he shows no signs of a split personality and explains in an interview with Newsweek correspondent Daria Guseva that United Russia is still its main rival.

How did the situation change for the party after Putin headed the United Russia list?

Nothing has changed for our party. Vladimir Putin, having agreed to head the list, did not become a member of United Russia. Therefore, we continue to support the “president of all Russians” and at the same time act in strong opposition to United Russia. All our developments remain in force.

We are against the monopoly of one party. This is the most important point of our strategy. The monopoly of the CPSU destroyed the great state - the USSR. People remember Article 6 of the USSR Constitution and do not want it back.

After the United Russia congress, did you meet with Putin?

Yes, several times.

And what did he tell you?

When two people discuss serious issues, they usually expect that their conversation will not become public knowledge. I will only say that as the leader of A Just Russia, I have no reason to worry.

Why was Sergei Shargunov expelled from the federal troika two weeks after the congress?

He failed in his task.

So fast?

The nonsense he is now talking about is further proof of this. The man simply failed to cope with the task assigned by the party. He should have been a member of our troika, a soldier of the party, and not engaged in self-PR and spinning imaginable and unimaginable rumors around his figure.

They say that the Kremlin asked you to remove him, in particular, for negative statements about Putin.

We knew about these statements before, it didn’t stop us. What I really didn't know was that he was related to my subordinate. I learned about this from the newspapers. Nobody in the Kremlin tells us anything. We do not go to the presidential administration for instructions.

Will you cooperate with the communists before the elections? Or will you try to unite the factions later?

It’s difficult to discuss with Zyuganov, we talk to the point, and he talks about “unshaven socialism.” He has nothing more to say. They have a polemic with “United Russia” that is laughable! Ordinary communists will eventually find themselves in our ranks. Party members leave the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and come to us. But our main opponent is United Russia, and we will strike the main blow against it.