Periscope No. 14

Currency | podrublili

For 2006, the Central Bank of Russia planned the growth of the real effective exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar by no more than 9%, but due to high inflation at the beginning of the year, it has already grown by 4.2%. The dollar fell by a whole ruble. According to economists, the rate will fall further. If not in April-May, then in October-November, the dollar may already cost 25-26.5 rubles, predicts Alexei Moiseev, an analyst at Renaissance Capital, in the forecast published last week "Ruble revaluation - soon and much more." The reason is the impossibility of simultaneously fulfilling the goals set by the president: increasing budget spending, curbing inflation and maintaining the exchange rate. Moiseev is convinced that at least one of them will have to be sacrificed, and since it is impossible not to increase spending and fight inflation, "the authorities have only one way out - to allow a significant increase in the nominal exchange rate of the ruble." It is curious that there seems to be no consensus on the ruble in the Central Bank leadership itself. On April 5, its head, Sergei Ignatiev, announced that in the coming months the Central Bank would not increase its rate against a basket of currencies, since the strengthening of the national currency had already led to a slowdown in industrial growth. However, the very next day, Ignatiev's deputy Alexei Ulyukaev radically corrected the boss. He said that the Central Bank will continue to strengthen the ruble in order to curb inflation, because "there are [no] statistical grounds" to believe that this is what hinders growth. The head of the analytical department of the Bank of Moscow, Kirill Tremasov, believes that an increase in the exchange rate is not the best way to fight inflation. “The main efforts should be directed to the demonopolization of markets. Indeed, in competitive markets - for example, household appliances or cars - prices are not only not growing, but even falling. But in order to do something with monopolies, you must first defeat corruption,” the analyst draws attention. He is confident that in the long term the ruble will strengthen against the dollar, but not as fast as his colleagues from Renaissance Capital believe. “Of course, the Central Bank can make the dollar even cheaper than 25 rubles, but this will have serious negative consequences for the economy. In particular, the indicators of exporters will deteriorate sharply,” the economist warns. According to his forecast, the dollar may fall below 25 rubles. only because of sharp changes in the world currency market. For example, if the euro will be given not $1.2, as it is now, but at least $1.3. This year, this is unlikely, Tremasov believes, recommending, however, to keep money in rubles.

Verdict | No jury. Enough sworn

Cases of war crimes in Chechnya will be considered by professional military judges

The reconnaissance group of Eduard Ulman, who was accused of killing Chechens and twice acquitted by the jury of the North Caucasus District Military Court, will now be taken over by professional judges. Last Thursday, the Constitutional Court of Russia decided that the jury could not be formed without the participation of residents of Chechnya, where the jury should appear only in 2007. The reason for considering the issue in the Constitutional Court was the appeal there by Chechen President Alu Alkhanov and one of the victims in the Ulman case - Koki Tuburova. According to their lawyer Murad Musaev, the appeal followed after the Supreme Court overturned another acquittal in Ulman's case and returned it to the jury formation stage. From now on, all cases of military men who have committed crimes in Chechnya will be considered by military courts of three judges. Alkhanov himself was satisfied with the decision of the Constitutional Court: "I am grateful to the judges, first of all, for their promptness." According to the representative of the State Duma in the Constitutional Court, Elena Mizulina, he actually admitted that the district court acted in the interests of the accused. According to the investigation, the commander of the GRU special forces group, Captain Ulman, with three colleagues during a special operation in the Shatoisky district of Chechnya in January 2002, shot six civilians. "Now the intelligence officers may face a real prison term, not an acquittal," the Chief Military Prosecutor's Office told Newsweek. Ulman's defense comment could not be obtained.

Reputation | Fascist Petersburg

Last Friday, a student of the Institute of Communications, Senegalese Samba Lamzar, was killed in St. Petersburg, he became the victim of the fifth attack on foreigners in the northern capital this year. 27-year-old Samba was returning with the company from the Apollo club, a permanent meeting place for African students. The young people left the club at half past five in the morning and managed to walk only a few meters when the attacker opened fire on them with a pump-action shotgun (later, operatives found him in a neighboring yard, a swastika was drawn on the butt). Samba was last, shot in the back and neck, told Newsweek Ali Nasor, one of the leaders of the organization uniting African students of St. Petersburg "African Unity" (the deceased Senegalese was its formal member). A native of Tanzania, a graduate of the Faculty of Journalism at St. Petersburg State University, Nasor has no doubts that the murder was committed on ethnic grounds: “Firstly, the swastika on the gun. Secondly, the time of the murder - ordinary people do not walk with guns early in the morning. Thirdly, Hitler's birthday is coming soon, St. Petersburg skinheads always celebrate him with attacks. Even the police, oddly enough, do not deny the ethnic motive.” “In connection with the identity of the deceased” a criminal case was opened on the fact of the crime under the article “Murder committed for national reasons,” the city prosecutor’s office said, although the motive “has not yet been established.” Since the beginning of the year, natives of Egypt, Burundi, Cameroon and Uganda have been beaten in St. Petersburg. Two weeks ago, the 9-year-old daughter of a Malian and a Russian woman, Lilian Sissoko, was seriously wounded with a knife. In 2005, according to the city police department, 1073 crimes against foreigners were committed in it: students from Vietnam and Cameroon were killed, students from China, South Korea, Palestine, Israel, Mauritius, Pakistan, Kenya and Namibia were beaten and maimed.

To the judgment of history | Treacherous testimonies

The Gospel of Judas, a translation of an ancient Coptic text, was released April 6 by the National Geographic Society (USA). “You will outdo everyone else. For you will sacrifice a man who serves as clothing for me, ”Jesus sets up Judas Iscariot in a manuscript of the 3rd–4th century AD. e., the antiquity of which is confirmed by various examinations. Scientists believe that this is the "Gospel of Judas" from a papyrus manuscript discovered in Egypt in the early 1970s, in turn, also a translation - the Greek original, created no later than 180 AD. e. The Vatican and the Russian Orthodox Church have about the same assessment of the release of the scandalous book: it will not have a big impact on Christians. The head of the Pontifical Committee for Historical Sciences, Walter Brandmüller, has already called the text "religious fantasy". According to Archpriest Vsevolod Chaplin, a representative of the Moscow Patriarchate, if the authenticity of the manuscript is really proven, then the Gospel of Judas is just one of the apocryphal texts, of which there have always been many, especially in the first centuries of Christianity. “This text is interesting to study in order to make some kind of opinion,” says Chaplin. - And the attitude of believers does not depend on the volume of interpretations of the gospel events. Another apocrypha is unlikely to become a serious argument even for skeptics.” The interpretation of the gospel events, which is positive for Judas, is now being translated into 18 languages, including Russian.

Arrest | "Space" as a premonition

The prosecutor's office of the Central District of Moscow has charged the infamous magician Grigory Grabovoi with fraud, claiming that he is able to resurrect dead people and perform various miracles. “We took the “healer” in the conference room of the Cosmos Hotel, right during a seminar on the resurrection of the dead, which was attended by more than 300 people,” one of the operatives involved in the arrest told Newsweek. According to the prosecutor of the district, Igor Pavlov, on March 20, a criminal case was opened on the fact of fraudulent actions of employees of the non-profit organization Grigory Grabovoi Fund. “We were going to interrogate him and sent summonses to which he did not respond. Then I had to put him on the federal wanted list,” the prosecutor explains. Investigators have been working with Grabov since the fall of 2004, after the prosecutor's office received applications from women whose children died during the terrorist attack in the Beslan school. According to the investigation, Grabovoi promised mothers to resurrect dead children if he was paid 39,100 rubles each. for the child. But the miracle did not happen, and the "healer" began to assure them that he was misunderstood, he could not resurrect the children, but he could "call them into contact." When the "healer" didn't even do that, the women accused the "magician" of fraud, prosecutors say. According to investigators, if Grabovoi's guilt is proven in court, he can go to prison for five years.

Scandal | Came for the soul of Bush

The scandal, known in the United States as "Pleymgate", or "CIAgate", began to play with renewed vigor. Lewis Libby, Vice President Cheney's former chief of staff, gave sensational testimony to the Grand Jury. Libby is accused of declassifying CIA agent Valerie Plame in 2003 and giving the New York Times classified information about Iraq's nuclear capability. Disclosure of personnel of special services is punishable in the United States for up to 10 years. And since Libby denied the facts for a long time, he was also charged with lying under oath and obstruction of justice. Now he admitted that he was doing the will of Dick Cheney, who acted with the approval of George W. Bush. They solved two problems. First, they took revenge on Plame's husband, State Department employee Joseph Wilson, who openly questioned the existence of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction. Secondly, they brought to the Americans "absolutely reliable" data that Iraq threatened the whole world and war was necessary. Democrats called Libby's words shocking. Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean said Bush cannot be trusted. "If Libby is right, then Bush is in trouble," New York's Democratic Senator Charles Schumer told Newsweek. - He himself said that he does not approve of leaks and will punish any of his team for them. Now he must account for this to the people of America." Bush's team is already preparing for defense. In the meantime, Justice Minister Alberto Gonzalez reminded Congress that the Constitution gives the president special powers: he has the right to pass on any classified information to whom he wants.

Espionage | Everything is hushed up with Zamyatnin

Swedish authorities have dropped all charges against Russian biologist Andrei Zamyatnin, who was previously accused of spying for an unnamed country. On February 15, Zamyatnin, an employee of the Uppsala Agricultural University, was arrested on suspicion of intelligence activities and sent to jail, where he spent almost 2 months. Swedish Prosecutor General Thomas Lindstrand accused Zamyatnin of transferring secrets abroad. The Russian Foreign Ministry and Russian scientists, outraged by the groundlessness of the accusations, sent angry notes and messages to the Swedes demanding that the biologist be released immediately. The prosecutor's office could not provide evidence for a long time, and the court extended Zamyatnin's detention in the pre-trial detention center three times. As a result, the Prosecutor General surrendered - the scientist is free, the case is closed. Now Zamyatnin himself intends to compete with Swedish justice. "We will seek compensation for moral damages," Zamyatnin's lawyer Ola Salomonsson told Newsweek.

Travel | From there to court

Chukotka border guards detained British traveler Karl Bushby and his American partner Dmitry Kieffer for illegally crossing the border. The record-breaking tourists crossed the Bering Strait on ice the Friday before last, but only discovered them last Wednesday. Both had visas, but crossed the border in the wrong place - without registration, and Bushby also had a gun with him. The violators were taken by helicopter to the village of Lavrentiya for interrogation. Representatives of the FSB border service do not see malicious intent in the actions of foreigners, but the prosecutor's office nevertheless opened a case, and now they face deportation or a term of up to five years. Bushby and Kieffer live with the local priest Father Leonid and move freely around the village. The British embassy told Newsweek that the locals treat "extreme-seekers" normally and even "admire their act." “The arrest is not a surprise for us. I tried to obtain permission [for the route] from the Russian authorities in advance, but I could not,” the father of Briton Keith Bushby told Newsweek. His son Carl, a former paratrooper, started out in the Chilean port of Punta Arenas in 1998, intending to cover the 36,000 miles non-stop to his hometown of Hull in Britain, and managed to cover almost half of the way. Kieffer joined him in Alaska for a two-week Bering Strait crossing and return. Now they are waiting for the decision of the local court. Bushby Jr. is determined to set a record and reach the end. “He will continue the journey. Although his equipment was lost during the arrest, and most likely he will return to Alaska to buy new ones, ”said Bushby Sr.

Bluff | "Hoot" to you

Last week, the Iranian navy carried out the most grandiose maneuvers in its history, code-named "Mohammed is the prophet of Allah." The Iranian navy seemed to be deliberately trying to intimidate the Americans to death by confirming the reality of their threats to block the Strait of Hormuz by blocking the export of Middle Eastern oil. As early as March 31, it was reported that 1,500 warships were deployed in the Persian and Oman Gulfs (more than the entire NATO). And then from Tehran, reports began to arrive, one more outlandish than the other. The list of “ultra-modern” weapons that suddenly appeared at his disposal grew before his eyes: the Kovsar medium-range coastal missile, the invisible Flying Ship, the equally invisible Fajr-3 missile, and, finally, the Khut torpedo - a marine miracle flying under water at a speed of more than 100 m/s. “It is doubtful that this set of cheating tricks made an impression on the Americans,” Israel's General Staff told Newsweek. “At least we weren’t afraid.” The Americans themselves, it seems, really considered the Iranian show some kind of April Fools' joke, especially since the most sensational news that hit the screens of Iranian TV did not impress. The “flying ship” turned out to be just a pathetic imitation of a primitive ekranoplan of early Soviet construction, and the “Hut” torpedo, although outwardly reminiscent of its real Russian counterpart “Shkval”, passed such a short distance in the frame that the entire launch looked like a clear hoax. According to the Russian Foreign Ministry, it has never transferred such weapons and technologies to Iran.