Who will defeat the war

How to stop bloodshed in Kyiv? What is the agenda in the negotiations of the Ukrainian opposition with Viktor Yanukovych? Who are the political leaders of the Maidan? What is the role of the ultra -right in the events on Grushevsky Street? The special correspondent of the IA LIGABESINform Sergey Vysotsky answers the questions of the “faces” about the prospects of resolving the crisis.

• What is the political result of clashes in Kyiv?

• There is no political result yet, because everyone is in some confusion. Apparently, the opposition cannot keep the protest under control, this protest is exciting and quite radicalized. And the government meets the beginning of real hostilities on the streets of Kyiv. There are ritual conversations about the need for dialogue, about the creation of some next working group for this. There were already many of these working groups, and all of them turned out to be profanity. Over the past two months, there were several decorative round tables held by Viktor Yanukovych, but they did not affect anything. A criminal case was allegedly opened against people who ordered students to beat students on the Maidan on November 30, but this case did not advance. There were promises to deal with the commanders of the "Berkut" who carried out this order, but this was not done either. Any attempts by the authorities, as it were, to meet only an even greater escalation of the conflict ended: the authorities promised something, reassured vigilance, and then some blow was delivered.

The last straw was the adoption on January 16 of actually totalitarian laws that limit the rights and freedoms of citizens: freedom of assembly, freedom of speech, freedom of information. On the other side, there are no attempts to start real dialogue. This dialogue should obviously begin with the fulfillment of the requirements of the protesters. At least from the resignation of some odious ministers, at least from the creation of a non -working group, headed by the head of the National Security and Defense Council, Andrei Klyuyev (he is suspected of being preparing acceleration), and from sitting at the table with opposition leaders and representatives of civil society through the mediation of Western ambassadors. It would be a real dialogue. And the working group, led by Klyuyev, is not a dialogue, it is again tightening time and profanity.

- The opposition goes to negotiations?

• If the negotiations are, I think that the opposition will go to them, but so far we do not see them. There is a declaration from the other side: "Let's start negotiations." But there were already enough such declarations, and I'm not sure that real negotiations will take place. I do not think that in the format of the working group, headed by Klyuyev, negotiations are generally possible. The crowd on the street requires Yanukovych's resignation. And they are already demanding not within the framework of the peace process, but by throwing the police with cobblestones and Molotov cocktails.

- Do Klitschko and Yatsenyuk represent?

Some kind of protesters are probably represented, but their authority, of course, is rapidly falling. For two months of standing on the Maidan, people are tired of the general words of the opposition. Yesterday, for the first time in two months, the opposition reached a certain plan of action, but this plan was relevant a month and a half ago. After January 16, very many had the impression that this Sunday fee is the last chance to preserve the state in which there is some rights and freedoms.

As for Klitschko and Yatsenyuk, the further they are, the less the interests of the protesters are capable of. They came out of resonance with the people on the Maidan.

Those radical actions that were yesterday, even if it was a provocation (and the opposition’s leaders tried to portray this at first), a lot of people reacted to them. At the peak moment, up to thirty thousand people stood against the police in European square. There is a moderate part of the protesters, but she would also like the opposition to present a clear plan of action, a single candidate, not even a candidate, but a leader who could coordinate the protest movement. To quantify what part of the protest it is, reliable sociological data are needed. So far, it seems that the opposition leaders simply lose the control of the protest that they had. Previously, people listened to speakers from the stage and somehow followed their calls. Now we see that this is not so.

- What is the role of ultra -right in yesterday's clashes?

They could only be a catalyst. Several thousand people actively fought on the area with the police, and this is more than the number of all these ultra -right organizations. People were involved in the clashes who were simply tired of the lawlessness created by Yanukovych, and who are ready for any actions, including violent ones, in order to try to get rid of it. It seems to me that this trend will grow. If a political compromise is not found, the city war will unfold on the streets of Kyiv, and not only the ultra -right, but also ordinary people who have gotten everything will fight.

- That is, those who joined in clashes to the ultra -right, do not share their views?

• Of course no, they are not fascists. Yanukovych and this power simply got them so much that they are ready to go and fight with the police, to endure this power in their arms from the offices.

- What are the possible scenarios of the development of events?

• Scenarios, as it seems to me really only two ,.

The first option - sound elements in power (Yanukovych is unlikely to apply to them) will understand what the situation threatens, unite with the opposition, form a new parliamentary majority, limit the powers of the president, appoint early presidential elections, and resign the cabinet of ministers. This will be the political regulation of the crisis, the most desirable for all of us.

And the second option-the authorities will go to the next escalation of the conflict, for example, will try to demolish the Maidan, begin tough repressions towards the people who were on the square yesterday, will try to somehow twist the nuts.

If people begin to take it massively and charged them of participating in the riots, this will cause an escalation of violence, possibly a real war. If firearms are used, a real war will begin in Ukraine. I do not think that the East of Ukraine will go to protect this power. But that there will be hundreds of victims, the death of police officers, the death of deputies from the Party of Regions, and will ultimately kill Yanukovych himself during this partisanism - this is inevitable.