The Kazakh authorities with a battle chose the protege Nazarbayev to the presidency. The main opposition candidate helped them in this

On June 9, the presidential early elections were held in Kazakhstan, on which the “anointed” of the first head of state Nursultan Nazarbayev was supposed to confirm their legitimacy. Nazarbayev resigned on March 19 and put an ultra -Yalist in his place. In recent years, 65-year-old Kasym-Zhomart Tokaev was nominally the second person in the state-chairman of the upper house of parliament. According to the CEC, Tokaeva cast votes 70 percent of voters with a turnout of 77.4 percent. But in fact, everything was different: according to the reports of observers, in many sections Tokaev lost to his main competitor-oppositionist Amirzhan Kosanov-at least one and a half to two times. The success was so frightened by the opposition himself that Kosanov agreed to recognize the victory of the protege of the authorities before the announcement of official results.

The street is noisy

The elections that were supposed to be held as a referendum on the trust of the Nazarbayev course (Tokaev proclaimed “Continuity!”) With his slogan in the morning. In Almaty and Nur-Sultan, two main cities of Kazakhstan, hundreds of people opposed to holding such elections came out in the square. Some of them were remotely brought out on the square with the disgraced oligarch Mukhtar Ablyazov (he himself is hiding in France, sentenced to life imprisonment in his homeland), but most of the protesters came on their own.

The Ministry of Internal Affairs immediately turned off the entire Internet in the protests and the beginning of the acceleration of demonstrations -

Moreover, unlike the same rallies of three years ago on the use of Kazakhstani lands by foreigners, the detentions were much tougher, with beatings and grabbing by the arm of everyone who was just walking nearby. Independent journalists counted at least a few dozen people who at that moment went to the polling station, but ended up in Avtozak.

Police official representatives first talked about a hundred detainees (and all of them were submitted as supporters of Ablyazov’s “Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan” prohibited in Kazakhstan), then the official figure grew to 500 people. At the same time, according to human rights activists, the detention continued on Monday, June 10, and the detainees in the capital had to be taken to neighboring cities due to the overflow of police departments.

In Nur-Sultan, the Palace of Youth "Zhastar" was cordoned off for a day, the police detained almost everyone who passed nearby. The fate of many detainees is still unknown. It is known that one of the women, who was taken to a car factory in Almaty, opened her veins right in the car. Information about the death of an elderly person from the blow of a special forces fighter at a rally was widely distributed, but the official authorities categorically deny this information. The First Deputy Minister of the Interior Marat Kozhaev generally stated that none of the protesters were injured.

“In Nur-Sultan, 12 people turned to health workers. All mostly complained about a hypertensive crisis, ” - this phrase Kozhaev looks very angry irony.

At the same time, the police themselves announced the three wounded for their part. This information, however, should be treated carefully - especially if you look at the form in which some fighters of special forces went: it is very similar to armor.

The reaction of foreign observers to rallies is indicative. American and German observers said that such protests contribute to the development of the democratic process, the head of Russian observation said that "she did not see these mass rallies, although we are wheeling from six in the morning in the center of Nur Sultan."

The head of Russian observers in this election was Elena Mizulina.

It is hot in the areas

While supporters of the boycott ralled on the streets, supporters of the elections went to polling stations. The official turnout eventually amounted to almost 78 percent, but aimed at the legitimation of the pro -government candidate, she played against him. For the first time, a large number of independent observers were officially involved in these elections (there were about three hundred in small Uralsk alone), they carefully recorded all violations (the prosecutor’s office recognized only 19 violations, and they were all “insignificant”). They tried to conduct an information campaign against observers, accusing them of working for the “OSCE money”, the activists' chats in messengers regularly hacked - however, it was the observers after the closing of the plots that began to massively upload photos of certified protocols with the results of the vote.

And the unexpected happened. At the first hour, it became clear that in dozens of plots in Almaty, Nur-Sultan, Aktau, Atyrau, Uralsk Kyzylorda, Kasim-Zhomart Tokaev wins.

Most of the votes were given to Amirzhan Kosanov (it is significant that the majority voted for him even at the polling station at the University of Nazarbayev). The number of such sites with Kosanov-winner grew every minute. At the same time, the official CEC was silent, and after midnight, the results of the ec-regulations gathered by the pro-government structure under the leadership of the political scientist Talgat Kaliev (not related to the authorities of the associations are prohibited by law is prohibited by law). According to them, Tokaev scored more than 70 percent of the vote, and Kosanov got only 15 percent (which, however, is one of the highest opposition results in the history of all Kazakhstani elections).

Examples of ballots from the sites where Tokaev lost to the opposition by a wide margin: 1, 2, 3 (Facebook).

Then the following happened. Amirzhan Kosanov, a former Komsomol instructor and spokesman for the government, who went to the opposition about 20 years ago, recorded a video message. On it, Kosanov, on June 8, publicly dreaming of a second round, with panic notes in his voice fell upon the supporters of Mukhtar Ablyazov, who "involved youth into this event." “Being abroad, sitting, drinking coffee in a cafe and pushing the people on this during the election, instead of letting people use their constitutional law, initially knowing that they are cr crute and will be punished, to incite, this is a real political provocation and meanness. Our youth is mistaken, adhering to pseudo -democratic positions, ”Kosanov almost shouted. A few minutes later, he joined five other candidates, who, even before the publication of at least preliminary voting results on undisguised joy and relief congratulated Tokayev on the victory.

The next day, Kosanov live in the live broadcast of the Azattyk radio site met with angry supporters who openly accused him of betrayal. “Yes, I recognized Tokaev’s victory. I understand now what the reaction will be. I consulted with my colleagues, who all these years helped me in the election campaign. Being a realist, knowing what is the state car, what is the administrative resource, what are our capabilities today, I recognized this. And therefore, when there are elections now, now I raised this bar to 16.02% of the vote ( preliminary. - Ed. ), And now the authorities will be ashamed and unacceptable of the following candidate or the party to drop to the past 6-9%, ”Kosanov said, and at the same time hinted that he plans to create his own party, which had good chances of passing to parliament two years later. It is noteworthy that Kosanov’s opponents from among an independent opposition wrote exactly about these agreements: he was supposed to become a wolf in a sheep’s skin in exchange for representation in system policy - in particular, Kosanov was invited to catch the flag of moderate nationalism.

In Akorda* everything is calm

The result of the elections and their official recognition by the defeats will give the winning Tokaev even more illusions regarding what the power of his resource, says political scientist Dosym Satpaev. Speaking after the election, Tokaev already Jesuit noted that "he was glad that the election campaign was civilized in nature." “There will be no constructive dialogue. The elections showed that society is very split - but it suits the authorities. There is no person on the protest field who would build a bridge of relations with the authorities. How to conduct a dialogue if there is no equal side? This will not be a dialogue, but an ongoing monologue, ”Satpaev states.

The security forces will now play the key role, who, using the vacuum in the opposition, "are completely in the illusion that everything is possible."

Kosanov set himself the task of becoming such a “bridge”, but the way he leaked, turned away from him all those who were ready to believe in him (even taking into account the fact that most of him saw the candidate “against all” in him). The old opposition no longer exists, and the new one is only formed, but its power will ignore it. Another thing is that the scale of protest was much higher than expected, which means only one thing: it is so easy for people to endure the actions of the authorities. “People have become more politicized, more critical. In general, these elections are the victory of observers, ”adds Satpaev with a doh.

On the afternoon on Monday, June 10, the OSCE as a whole positively appreciated the elections in Kazakhstan, although it doubts that they can be called democratic. Observers indicated that the detention of people on the streets is bad. Just under these words in large Kazakhstani cities, they continued to detain people. One of the detainees was the journalist Asem Zhapishev, who said that she was asked in the department why she was against Nursultan Nazarbayev and "why she wants to ruin the country." It seems that the lack of dialogue between the authorities and society can be fixed on the first day after the election.

*Akorda (white rate)-the residence of the President of Kazakhstan in Nur-Sultan, former Astana.