Millions of Russians remain nothing more than an "object" of economic policy. It looks like it has begun. After a year and a half of talks, hesitations and delays, the Russian authorities have embarked on a new stage of reforms. For the average...

Millions of Russians remain nothing more than an "object" of economic policy

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seems to have begun. After a year and a half of talks, hesitations and delays, the Russian authorities have embarked on a new stage of reforms. For the average citizen of the country, who is not particularly interested in the intricacies of economic theory, this means a new rise in prices and another round of inflation.

The leaders of the railways were the first to remind themselves. Tickets for passenger trains have risen in price, and an increase in tariffs for freight transportation has been announced. The last decision was immediately suspended by the government. And soon the government announced an increase in tariffs, somewhat less than the railroad demanded.

The same story with the energy monopoly headed by Anatoly Chubais. RAO "UES of Russia" announced a "phased" increase in electricity prices, which will probably culminate in the summer. Gas prices will also rise.

As for the telephone companies, they have long been preparing the introduction of hourly pay. The only thing stopping them was general disapproval. The first two attempts were thwarted by protests that brought together pensioners and hackers, State Duma deputies and the middle class, the YABLOKO party and communist supporters. Now the situation is different. The general outrage will not be focused on the signalers. At first, the subscription fee was sharply increased, and a transition to time-based payment was scheduled for the second half of the year. Telephone monopolists are not stopped even by the fact that the State Duma passed the first reading of a law prohibiting such a transition without the consent of consumers. Until the law reaches the third reading, the new system will be introduced in most major cities. And the deputies will come to terms with a fait accompli.

After arguing over prices and tariffs, the government announced that, by caring for the people, it had curbed the ambitions of the natural monopolies. The audience, apparently, should be happy. At first we were frightened by the already catastrophic figures, then they were cut by half and reassured us that wages would grow faster. Average, of course.

Here, however, came the first discrepancy. After all, the officials who told us the initial price increase plan also emphasized that the population would not suffer and the average salary would grow faster. It turns out that by halving the rate of price growth, the government simultaneously found out that it was about half wrong about wage growth?

How everything will be in reality, we will find out very soon. From about mid-February, we will feel the rise in prices for ourselves. As for wage growth... I don't want to scare the reader, but even if the promised growth takes place, it will only spur inflation, which will "eat" it.

The real consequences of the reform come down to price increases by natural monopolies. The result will be not only a new round of inflation, but also a depreciation of the ruble. This, in turn, means an aggravation of the problem of external debt, which is serviced in dollars. By the end of the year, most likely, we will have to say goodbye to economic growth. And in 2003, there is a peak of payments on external debt. The government probably hopes that the West will agree to restructure the debt once again.

True, Argentina, in a similar situation, was not pulled out of the debt trap. One can, of course, assume that after the troubles in Buenos Aires, the mood of Western creditors will change. But, alas, by that time Russia will not be the only country crying out for help. Paradoxically, our problem is not only that we are heavily indebted, but also that these unpaid (for us) debts are not the most catastrophic on a global scale. The West will not be able to bail out all the debtors at once and, dealing with Latin America, will leave us to get out on our own.

It is unlikely that the people sitting in the Kremlin are so short-sighted that they cannot foresee such consequences. Their fluctuations are obvious - otherwise, why would they stop the already made decision to increase freight rates on the railways? What pushes the authorities on such a risky path?

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Economic growth in Russia is choking on the background of the global crisis. The flow of petrodollars that supported Russian companies is drying up. The state and corporations are trying to squeeze the missing funds out of the population. The former state monopolies, having become private, finally gained freedom from responsibility to society.

In theory, the free market implies demonopolization, but it is unlikely that my house will have a second gas pipeline or two competing faucets installed in my bathroom. Even if such extravagant measures are abandoned, any restructuring and division of natural monopolies requires huge costs that neither private investors nor the state can currently afford. It remains to shift them to the population. The benefits of demonopolization are still hypothetical, but it is necessary to pay now.

Explaining to the people on television the meaning of his policy, the ideologist of the government German Gref constantly repeated the word "compromise". The minister confusingly gave some figures, side by side admitting that the calculations made by different departments do not converge. In fact, the numbers here are not important at all. The final compromise reflects not the correlation between the calculations of various departments and companies, but the correlation of political forces between them.

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monopolies are playing a win-win game. If the separation of companies takes place, then all related costs will be paid by the clients. Moreover, the transition from one company to two or three does not change much. Full-fledged competition is possible only when dozens of companies simultaneously operate on the market, which is technically impossible in this case. If, in the end, natural monopolies retain their integrity, additional profits will remain in their accounts.

Corporations have powerful political lobbies. The population is not. It was possible to restrain the growth of tariffs only because the interests of citizens in this case coincided with the interests of industrialists, who also did not want price increases. Millions of Russians remain nothing more than an "object" of economic policy. Their interests are not represented by anyone, and they have no way to influence decision-making.