Translated material
There is nowhere below!
There is nowhere below! The couples of discussions about the reduction of taxes went into a whistle: after Putin’s budget message, it became clear that the relief of tax burden in the coming years was an almost incredible story. In the meantime, you need to prepare for the worst - for a decrease in the growth rate of income, to increase expenses and even some taxes.
The war of the Ministry of Finance with business and individual representatives of the presidential administration for reducing tax burden 1 is far from completed. But the main financial department of the country is already noting the victory - however, intermediate, and not in war, but in tactics. The Minister of Finance - approximately like Kutuzov - lures the enemy deep into the subordinate territory and does not give open battle. “As a result of a serious discussion, the analysis of all possible options for reducing tax burdened the decision was postponed” - so laconically reported on the day of publication of the Presidential Budget Epistle for 2008-2010 Alexei Kudrin. The question, according to the head of the Ministry of Finance, seems to be not closed at all - it is postponed for three years. The presidential administration does not exclude that a decrease in bets may occur before. But for this, the authorities need to understand one simple thing - where do the money come from.
- The attack on VAT -
Spears broke mainly around VAT and UST. The presidential expert administration insisted that VAT is “harmful” to the Russian economy: it stimulates the BIZ to dissolve in the raw materials industries, the development of production is the development of production, and it is not possible to solve problems with its compensation even in Europe, as well as to eliminate schemes for evasion of its payment to the treasury. Arkady Dvorkovich, head of the presidential expert administration, insists on replacing VAT on sales tax. However, the latter and, as it turned out, without a resulting attempt by the main parliament of Thera from business - RSPP - to put pressure on Praitsti was undertaken literally on the eve of the budget message. The main proposal is to reduce VAT to 10-13%. After all, the union lobbies the interests of industry nicknames, and for them VAT is an exclusive headache, since the export has the legal right to reimburse the tax from the tax budget paid to suppliers exported about ducution 2 .
The Ministry of Finance is defended
- income tax -
At some point, it seemed that the department of Alexei Kudrin's department trembled in the rectality of attacks on the government. The minister even agreed to "think" about the reduction of VAT 3 . But the officials thought quickly, and the deputy Kudrin Sergey Shatalov reported: the Ministry of Finance are ready to decrease another tax - income - up to 20% from 24%, and only if there are sources of a lump of pandation of the treasury loss. However, it was immediately clear that there was almost no chances to achieve at least a minimum reduction in taxes. Closer to the summer, the budget is taken for three years, so any fundamental tax decisions had to be approved this spring. “The Ministry of Finance won the party primarily thanks to one cunning: having tightened time,” one government official is ironic. As a result, the budget message was written “under the Ministry of Finance”. The President talks about the burdens usual for the company's companies, notes that it is possible to break this tax only after the completion of other reforms: social and pension insurance reforms, after changing the residential tax is not moving (they are going to count from its market value), after the exemption of dividends received from strategic investment in subsidiaries in non -complex taxation of non -complexation. organizations and so on. Almost all of these projects are either in the State Duma, or are preparing to get there from the bowels of the Ministry of Finance.
No decrease
- taxes -
With tangible support and understanding of the concern of the Ministry of Finance, there is, however, 
However, this does not affect the tax rate chosen by the authorities. In favor of the fact that the state does not intend to reduce taxes, says the “expenditure” part of the presidential budget message. “This is a pre -election message,” says a source to the ruler of Svet, “this is due to high expenditure promises, which sacrifice taxes.”
But with this volume of government departments, the President of the Dent risks, offering the project of the tough oil and gas fund, and says that the forms should not depend on the raw material to the nunk. In such a situation, the state is not ready to reduce taxes, especially VAT, which can provide budget revenues regardless of black gold prices.
Endgame.
- There is no money and will not be -
But without taking into account the growth of expenses, the 2007 budget revenues turned out to be overestimated. The main directions of the budget Paul Tiki Min Fine should be presented at the beginning of this week. It turned out that GDP is growing not as fast, and oil is not as expensive as officials expected. The budget was written at the rate of $ 61 per barrel, according to the forecasts of the right of vitual officials, the barrel will cost $ 55, and at the beginning of the year the price of a barrel was set $ 51.6. As Kudrin put it, the state will “impoverish” due to these mistakes by 170 billion rubles.
But this is not the only miscalculation of the Finance Comrade $ 400 billion - so much in the Ministry of Finance, the VAT reasons for this year were reduced. At a government meeting, the federal service for the den that was forced to warn that only 983 billion would collect 1379 billion rubles of 1379 billion rubles in the budget. The tax authorities did not manage to fulfill the VAT collection plan in 2006: the treasury received only 924 billion rubles of VAT (from the reinforcement of goods in Russia) with 1124 billion rubles initially laid down in the budget.
To reduce VAT in such a situation means putting the budget in direct dependence on income tax and personal income tax taxes, that is, on oil prices, which the president falls against.
However, supporters of VAT reducing or sales tax can be used in their Teresa. If the receipts of this nal so rapidly fall, then why not refuse VAT, replacing it with a log from sales. The reduction in the tax rate with the already falling receipts of VAT in the budget will also not be such a serious loss. And falling income at least from a part will be compensated by the excretion of revolutions from the shadow and the growth of the revenues of other taxes4. In addition, companies give the country from the need through the court to knock out VAT compensation from the TAS.
Some
- Taxes will grow -
Reducing bets is not the only way to facilitate tax burden, says a source in the Ministry of Finance. The approach of the Ministry of Economics was the recently indicated by the head of the Department of Tax and Customs-Tariff Policy of the Ministry of Finance Ilya Trunin: the load reduction will occur when the procedure of the Lata VAT is simplified. Three innovations in this area last year have already reduced the load by 1.4% of GDP. And since 2007, the declaration of VAT refunds has been in force. It is these factors that the failure of the VAT collection since 2006 and the disappointing forecast for 2007 are determined.
The discussion about tax reduction will continue to live, promises Dvorkovich. According to him, there are three options for facilitating the burden: by improving administration, or by reducing bets, or by replacing VAT on sales tax.
Kudrin also recognizes that the decision to reduce taxes is postponed “in order to analyze the budget and find the answers to strategic questions, including to provide the pension system.” Moreover, according to Putin, in connection with the transition to the approval of the budget to the three -year per peripheral, all the most fundamental decisions to improve the tax system must be made and primely executed during 2007. But it is little likely that Kudrin says that a decrease in the load about is isolated until 2011. Which taxes, on the contrary, will grow up: the Ministry of Finance is offering to increase NDPI for gas, and in the very near future. Gas tariffs will grow, and the Ministry of Finance wants to take a part from Gazprom to full income.
“The task of ensuring the stability of budget expenditures, regardless of the market of raw materials prices, comes to the fore,” said Vladimir Putin. So, only VAT, which is charged not from raw materials, but from production companies, can provide pensioners with old age at the subsistence level. The report on the expenses and income that the state is waiting in the next three years, the Ministry of Finance must submit to the government this week.
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1 fighting was actively conducted for more than two years.
2 According to RSPP calculations, VAT takes 40% in the total amount of tax payments of machine -building enterprises. Its decrease to 13% would save companies in 2008 to 650 billion rubles.
3 According to preliminary calculations of the Ministry of Finance, a rate of rate to 15% will deprive the budget in 2009 $ 13 billion.