Missing the target?

Russian aircraft hit a number of targets in Syria. Whose exactly - so far only our military and allies know

The Kremlin decided to openly fight in Syria after a request for help from President Bashar al-Assad and a unanimous vote in the Federation Council. In the Soviet era in Syria and other conflicts in Africa, Asia and Latin America, ours fought and died as advisers and specialists.

Now no one will be able to call the servicemen sent to Syria “vacationers” or disenfranchised volunteers. This is probably the best news from the Syrian front, where Russian aircraft entered the battle a couple of hours after the vote in the Federation Council. On the other hand, if you fight under cover, that it is, they say, the "Syrian Air Force", then it would be possible to attribute to Assad all the strikes past the terrorists and the inevitable casualties among the civilian population.

Prior to the start of the air campaign in Syria, they transferred and deployed a combined air regiment of mixed composition. According to unofficial data, the regiment has a squadron (12 units) of Su-24M front-line bombers, a squadron (12 units) of Su-25 attack aircraft, several Su-30SM fighter-bombers and helicopters - attack Mi-24 and transport Mi-8 (up to 14 pieces). At the last moment, as reported, 6 Su-34 front-line bombers were transferred to Syria for experimental testing of the latest technology in combat conditions. In total, according to official data from the Ministry of Defense, more than 50 aircraft and helicopters have been deployed to Syria.

At the urgently converted Syrian airfield near the port city of Latakia, an airfield maintenance battalion, radars and control tower, a group headquarters, air defense systems and a tactical marine battalion group with tanks and other heavy equipment were deployed. In total - from 1,500 to 2,000 military personnel (including the garrison of the naval stronghold located nearby in Tartus). A special forces group and helicopters sent to Syria can be used to rescue and evacuate downed pilots.

The Americans and their allies are using safe bases outside Syria and aircraft carriers to strike at militants of the banned Islamic State (IS) in Russia. Russia does not have such bases and aircraft carriers. There are no Mistral-type landing helicopter carriers that would be very useful in this situation. The Russian Air Force has to bomb from Syria itself, and in this country there are practically no guaranteed safe places left, even in Latakia, a coastal province inhabited by Alawites loyal to the Assad regime.

The fighters in Syria are numerous (from 100 to 200 thousand according to various estimates), well prepared and motivated to resist the foreign “Christian” invasion. One air regiment will not frighten them, they will undoubtedly try to disable the Russian air base, as well as capture Russian military personnel. However, it would take months of preparation to organize an effective attack on a well-guarded air base, and it would be better for ours to go home before that.

As part of the air regiment deployed in Syria, only the Su-30SM and, to some extent, the Su-34 can effectively conduct missile air combat. That is, the regiment was not originally intended to fight with the Americans and their allies in the international coalition in the Syrian sky, and this structure itself was obviously not chosen by chance so as not to provoke the Pentagon and facilitate a possible agreement - if not on joint actions, then on coordination and non-interference in mutual transactions. However, part of the air defense has been deployed to Syria, and the Syrian military has various, including modern ones (“Shell” and “Tor”), air defense systems in case the situation worsens.

According to official statements by the Ministry of Defense and the Kremlin, Russian aviation will directly cooperate with Assad's army and his allies - Shiite militants, Iranian volunteers and fighters of the Lebanese terrorist organization Hezbollah in conducting offensive operations. When Assad's offensive ends, presumably with the defeat of ISIS and other opposition, the Russian group from Syria will fly home, possibly leaving some of the heavy weapons to the Syrians.

President Vladimir Putin and other Russian leaders have said the airstrikes targeted IS fighters and that it was a "preemptive strike" in Russia's interests. When the airstrikes began on September 30, there were claims that the strikes were being carried out not on the locations of IS fighters, but on the forces of the Syrian opposition, which is supported by the United States, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Including under attack were the forces of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), formed by former Syrian officers and soldiers.

There are reports, not yet confirmed from independent sources, about the losses among the civilian population of the Syrian population as a result of Russian bombing. Sergei Lavrov and other officials are demanding proof and talking about an "information war." In Syria, during the years of the civil war, information and propaganda work has been well established, numerous stringers of world news agencies are operating, therefore, “video evidence” of strikes on territories in the area of Homs, Hama and Idlib, where there are believed to be no IS militants, are streaming.

The Ministry of Defense announced that "the strikes were carried out after conducting aerial reconnaissance and clarifying the data received from the headquarters of the Syrian army."

Naturally, there was no independent undercover reconnaissance on the ground, and a reconnaissance aircraft (or satellite, or drone), flying over the target, cannot establish what kind of grouping is actually there - ISIS or not. It is, of course, advantageous for Assad’s army to target the forces of the Syrian opposition, since it is with them, and not with the IS, that they are now mostly fighting.

The intelligence and coordination center established in Baghdad, consisting of military personnel from Syria, Iran, Iraq and the Russian Federation, will also be inclined to issue targets to the Russian Air Force that include not only IS, but the entire Syrian opposition, since this clearly puts Moscow on the side of the Shiites against the Sunni majority of the population of the Middle East . President Putin said: “Assad is opposed, according to the interpretation of some of our international partners, by the opposition. But in fact, in real life, Assad’s army is really fighting terrorist organizations.” Dmitry Peskov is surprised: “Does it exist, this Free Army in Syria? She exists? Didn’t the vast majority of them go over to ISIS?” Later, Peskov admitted that the strikes were aimed at ISIS and "other terrorist and extremist groups." Obviously, all the opponents of Assad are recorded in those.

Secretary of State John Kerry was quick to explain to reporters that "if Putin is on the side of Assad, Iran and Hezbollah, he will have very serious problems with the Sunni countries." Obviously, we are talking primarily about Turkey and Saudi Arabia, with which Russia has recently been improving relations. Saudi Arabia has reportedly already demanded an immediate halt to Russian air strikes in Syria. This is obviously only the beginning, and this is undoubtedly in the interests of the United States. The supply of weapons to the Syrian opposition will increase, including, possibly, air defense systems. For example, a self-propelled Pantsir-S1E may appear on the battlefield - one of those that were delivered in the UAE, and it will begin to shoot down our planes.