At the front line

Yabloko promises to enter in 2016 with the new chairman. Parliamentary parties, on the contrary, line up closer to the ONF and the Kremlin. That the opposition are ready to offer the voter - the New Times was versed

Mikhail Kasyanov and Alexei Navalny expect to create the “Loud Faction in the State Duma”, Moscow, December 11, 2015

The opposition, without waiting for the New Year, began an election campaign at the State Duma-2016. The main slogan of Parnassus is a “wave of change”, and the ex-prime minister Mikhail Kasyanov will be the leader of the list.

The State Duma elections next year will be held according to the new rules - the voting day was postponed from December to the third Sunday of September, half of the deputy corps (225 people) will be elected in single -mandate districts. It is believed that these innovations are more likely into the hands of United Russia: in the summer, the opposition will not be able to really attach due to the summer vacation period, and in the district it is easier to elect a candidate from the authorities. The opposition, meanwhile, also changes tactics: Parnassus and Yabloko promise new faces in the lists, the first applications for single -mandate districts appeared.

An overgrown apple

“We must show an example to others: for many years a total political stagnation has been going on in the country for many years. We want to show that there is still a democratic discourse, to vaccinate. For the first time in the post -Soviet history, the election of the head of the party open for society is going on, ”says Lev Schlosberg , the leader of the Pskov Yabloko, the leader of the Pskov Yabloko. After the investigation of the participation of the Pskov paratroopers in the war in the Donbass, publications on the involvement of Governor Andrei Turchak, the regional Duma, the Governor of Andrei Turchak deleted him from their ranks.

But Schlosberg does not lose heart and intends to run for the party leader. This is a question, along with amendments to the party charter, prohibiting one person more than two times to occupy the post of head of the party, was considered at the party congress on December 19-20, when this number was already in the printing house. The list of candidates proposed by the Political Committee of Yabloko - party veterans Sergey Ivanenko and Alexander Shishlov, youth are Nikolai Rybakov and Alexander Gnezdilov and prominent regions - the already named Schlosberg and the deputy from the "Karelia" Emilia Slabunova. Regional branches were included in the list of acting leader Sergei Mitrokhin and founding father Grigory Yavlinsky.

Yavlinsky states that he does not intend to advance yet. “He wants updates, but if he is hidden and changes to the charter do not pass, I think he can return to the post of chapter,” his press secretary Igor Yakovlev explained NT . Yavlinsky has already announced that he intends to participate in the 2018 presidential election - for the fourth time (he ran in 1996, 2000 and 2012, in the latter case he did not receive registration).

Sergey Glazyev and Alexey Kudrin personify the two most likely directions of the course change

“The party is a tool, its chairman, too - if he works effectively, why change? In the case of the president, restrictions are justified - this is a great power, in the party case, this is a restriction of competition, ”Sergey Mitrokhin is dissatisfied with amendments. Lev Schlosberg objects: “The party needs to be brought up, the leaders need to be raised so that every 8 years the issue of changing the chairman is not a surprise so that everyone understands who claims to this post.”

Political scientist Mikhail Vinogradov believes that the election of Schlosberg or Slabunova would have broken an “inertial scenario, in which the parties were assigned the role of“ trolling Parnas ”.

A wave without Nemtsov

The "Wave of Changes" promises to raise Parnassus. “You come to a meeting of some opposition organization, go into the hall, see someone and wonder:“ Oh! But you have to sit! You were poisoned, what are you doing here?! " - Bitterly joked in his speech on the forum "Waves" Alexei Navalny. Mikhail Kasyanov, who will head the Parnassus list, and therefore the entire demo department (it includes Parnassus, the Party of Progress, Democracy, the Party on December 5 and the Libertarian Party) spoke about the three -year plans - “Having received the faction in the State Duma, we participate in the regional elections, in 2018 in the presidency.”

The remaining candidates, including the second and third numbers, according to the deputy chairman of Parnas Ilya Yashin, will be determined during the primaries. “We will convince us to participate in the primaries of all, including stars,” the politician emphasized. The goal is the formation of a fraction in the State Duma. “A faction that has the courage to remind every day that the murder of Boris Nemtsov and other killings are not investigated. Naturally, it will be in the minority, but it will be louder than the rest of the State Duma, ”Navalny hopes.

According to political scientist Mikhail Vinogradov, “Kasyanov’s nomination is not a weak and not strong move. It all depends on how much the party will be associated with Navalny. Kasyanov may not prevent this, ”the expert predicts. Navalny himself simply cannot participate in the elections - the law prohibits this to persons with out -of -laws.

Alexey Navalny: “You come to a meeting of some opposition organization, go into the hall, you see someone and wonder:“ Oh! But you have to sit! You were poisoned, what are you doing here?! "

It is ready to support the opposition and the Open Russia movement Mikhail Khodorkovsky - through the Open Elections project. “I see my task in the submission of an alternative to society, in helping people who are ready to become this alternative, who want to gain political experience for this,” Khodorkovsky explained. The head of the project was the former producer of the Moscow 24 channel Timur Valeev. He assures that “open elections” will not only observe and record violations on the voting day, but also suppress them.

Ilya Yashin began his election campaign with an open letter to the head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov: he would like to ask Kadyrov questions regarding the murder of Boris Nemtsov: “I am familiar with the circumstances of this crime in detail and I believe that traces of reprisal against my friend are leading straight to the official offices of Grozny,” Yashin writes. He is ready to come to Grozny. At the time of signing the number he did not receive. "I am waiting. The seagull also answered for a long time to investigate Navalny. So far, only Kadyrov’s friends were noted - a surgeon and former Kremlin employees who say that it is not clear to the Hero of Russia on Chechen TV, ”said NT Ilya Yashin.

Grigory Yavlinsky wants to try to become president for the fourth time, Moscow, October 24, 2015

Already now it is clear that Yabloko and Parnassus will not unite before the elections to the State Duma. “Not a single party will agree to self -destruct, but intraspecific competition can be won if people understand that the conditions are better in Yabloko,” repeats the battered thesis of Yablonnikov Lev Schlosberg.

However, Yashin believes that the reason is different: “The Presidential Administration seriously affects Yabloko - the party receives state financing, as more than three percent,” the Parnas deputy chairman explained in the State Duma in the State Duma (according to the reporting of the Central Election Commission of Yabloko received 127.4 million rubles from the state budget in 2014. - NT ).

According to Yashin, the combined list of opposition has more chances for success, so in the Kremlin they try to prevent such cooperation. “In the elections of the Moscow Mayor, Mitrokhin fought with Navalny more than with Sobyanin, in the elections to the regional Duma of Kostroma this year was the same,” says Yashin.

Campaign to Moscow

Candidates in single -mandate districts are still careful, only the State Duma deputy Dmitry Gudkov, who was going to nominate in the Tushinsky district of Moscow, openly announced his plans. Famous people from Lyudmila Ulitskaya and Vladimir Voinovich to Lyudmila Alekseeva and Viktor Sheinis already spoke out in his support: they recalled that Gudkov is the same warrior in the field, he is an independent candidate that allows him to vote as his conscience dictates, and not party chiefs, for this, was expelled from the Fair Russia faction. “I am considering a nomination either from Parnassus or from Yabloko, I hope that the parties will agree on a single list of single -mandate. But I am ready to collect and signatures, ”says Gudkov.

In alliance with the Kremlin

Communist Party, LDPR and Fair Russia do not promise changes. Gennady Zyuganov, Vladimir Zhirinovsky and Sergey Mironov will lead them to the elections. The Communists and Zhirinovites will conduct a campaign in the former direction-the Communist Party does not forget about Stalin (the Penza regional committee of the Communist Party even declared the year of the leader 2016), the LDPR expose the United States and abstractly stand “for the poor” and “for the Russians”. Compared to the 2011 campaign, the entire Duma “opposition” three has become much closer to power. The “fair Russia” approached the Kremlin tightly - its deputies began to be part of the regional headquarters of the United Popular Front.

Lev Shlosberg: “The party needs to be educated, the leaders need to be raised so that every 8 years the issue of changing the chairman is not a surprise so that everyone understands who claims to this post”

“From the very beginning, SR was a social party - we raised the topics of housing and communal services, problems of education and medicine, advocated luxury tax, progressive taxation. In many ways, this intersects with the agenda of the ONF, ”the first deputy chairman of the Socialist Revolutionary faction in the State Duma Mikhail Emelyanov, who became part of the Rostov headquarters of the front -line soldiers, justifies.

The voter approximation of the Social Revolutionaries to the front line has not yet appreciated: according to hundreds of questions, SR does not go to the new convocation of the State Duma. However, Mikhail Vinogradov indicates that "the level of expectations from the party of Sergei Mironov" is growing in the corridors of the authorities. " According to the political scientist, the parties go to the elections without deviations from the usual and expected channel. “The reasons for the opposition agenda gives power, the opposition does not formulate it. Therefore, now a civilian protest - truckers or opponents of paid parking lots is more noticeable, ”says the expert.

Survey

There will be no changes

Andrei Kolesnikov, the head of the program of the Moscow Center of Carnegie: “The instruments of monitoring the authorities over the elections will be the same as in 2015. Social protest will not develop into political. People perceive a worsening situation as a new reality and expect benefits from power. Parnassus will be difficult to convert these problems into electoral interest. The population has no protest tools, and it does not seek to particularly protest. ”

Alexey Makarkin, Deputy Director of the Center for Political Technology: “One of the possibilities of counteraction is the image strikes on Kasyanov, who headed the Parnassus list, and the Navalny team. The latter will be criticized as a “Western agent” who studied in the United States. In Kasyanov, the situation is even more difficult: the image of a man associated with the oligarchs was fixed behind him. Another tool for the fight against Parnassus can also be an “apple” that will delay the part of the votes of voters. ”

Konstantin Kostin, Chairman of the Board of the Civil Society Development Fund: “If mathematically approach, then even to the Crimea, the liberals have systemic or not - it was 15 %. Studies of the Committee of Civil Initiatives are now talking about even more modest numbers. We multiply this on the turnout - and disappointing numbers are obtained. ” In his opinion, the opposition simply has no chance to go to the Duma, despite the worsening economic situation and the growing social protest. “Parties, which have a large social block - communists,“ fair Russia ”, will use such problems. Liberals among voters are associated with shock therapy and monetization of benefits. ”

Pavel Tarusin, teacher of the faculty of state administration of Moscow State University: “The opposition has no intelligible program and leader. They (power) hold everyone on a short leash with the help of criminal cases, and the remaining lack of resources interferes. ” No one wants to give opposition money, since these funds will not be bought.

 *Anton Baev and Daria Khlyakina participated in the preparation of the material* 

Photo: Anatoly Zhdanov/Kommersant