Putin's co -sordation

The United Russia want to create the Institute of the National Leader and consolidate this status for Vladimir Putin through the Civil Cathedral. The initiative is commented on by political scientists Stanislav Belkovsky, Andrei Kolesnikov, Alexander Konovalov and Andrey Ryabov.

Stanislav Belkovsky , Director of the Institute of National Strategy:

The initiative put forward by Abdul-Khakim Sultygov looks like a parody and is quite worthy of the use of Evgeny Petrosyan and other humorous programs of modern Russian television in the intermals. Nevertheless, two practical considerations are behind this text.

Combining number one belongs to the Emergency campaign of the United Russia party, the main purpose of which is to bring its rating to the presidential as much as possible. For this, "United Russia" presents the topic of a third period or some other way to preserve Putin in power as his idea and initiative. From here the numerous meetings of the working people for the third term of Putin, and the letters of Nikita Mikhalkov , and the current, the parody of Mr. Sultygov come from here.

But if you think that in the Kremlin all this is perceived as a parody, then you are mistaken. This initiative reflects the level of intelligence and aesthetic perception of the reality of the actual head of the Environmental Association of United Russia Vladislav Surkov, who was previously seen in different outstanding projects in the intellectual and aesthetic plan, such as the movement of "our" or "Young Guards" "United Russia".

Practical consideration number two is the search by Vladimir Putin Safe (I emphasize, not a powerful, namely safe) position after his departure from the presidential post. Putin does not solve the problem of power, but the security problem. He understands that the next generation of Russian rulers will be forced to reveal the so -called “first envelope” and accuse the predecessor of all difficulties and failures, especially against the background of adverse trends in various areas of Russian life. Therefore, Putin would like to occupy a chair that would not impose any responsibility for him for a position in the country and insured him from troubles and spitting in the back from grateful followers.

Vladimir Putin needs a ceremonial post. It can be called, for example, the "Chairman of the Supreme Council of the United Russia", or the leader of the Duma faction, or it may be a place in some "Higher Council of National Unity", which will include all leading Russian authorities from religious to criminal, and his head will become Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin.

It is clear that it is much more difficult to declare the Chairman of the Supreme Council of National Unity or the Supreme Council of United Russia as the culprit of all Russian failures than to blame Vladimir Putin as a private person of this. Therefore, the note of Sultygov reflects these convulsive searches of Putin. I am still convinced that Putin leaves power as a function of making decisions and responsibility, all his searches are concentrated in the field of comfort and security.

Andrey Kolesnikov , Deputy editor -in -Chief of The New Times:

I think that the Civil Unity Pact is a part of the parallel vertical of power, which is built by United Russia during a pause that arose due to the fact that Putin cannot decide on the political structure that is formed after the presidential election.

The introduction of the term “national leader”, the emergence of a “civic unity” pact and this strange structure called “civilian cathedral” - all this is essentially the formation of a parallel vertical of power in the absence of understanding what will happen to the official vertical after May 2008, when the inauguration of the new head of state should take place. This surrogate power appears because United Russia needs to plan your own future and, possibly, to arrange the key figures of the party on at least some posts. There are still no official posts and official teams, so there is a parallel, alternative, informal activity.

As soon as there is complete clarity with a political alignment after the second term, all these constructions (“National Leader”, “Civil Unity Pact”, “Civil Cathedral”) will be thrown out of unnecessary.

Andrey Ryabov , member of the Scientific Council of the Moscow Center for Karengi:

About whether this initiative will have some kind of real continuation or not, it is pointless to speak now. We see that over the past one and a half to two months, the situation with the definition of the place and role that Putin will or is going to play in political life after 2008 remains extremely confusing and very dynamically changing. Therefore, it is impossible to say with all confidence whether this initiative will pass or will not pass.

The initiative of Sultygov can pass, provided that all previously discussed options for Putin’s “employment” (premiere, leading positions in some institutions of power such as the State Council, the Constitutional Court, the Security Court, etc.) will eventually be rejected. Then the question will be acutely about what official position to create for Putin so that he can still influence the political process. Obviously, in this case there will be several competing organizations that will offer Putin their options. The United Russia and the groups with which it is connected (we can assume that Vladislav Yuryevich Surkov plays a fairly active role there), would like to be the first among those who offer such institutions, so that, of course, to stake some positions after 2008.

The position of "United Russia" is not at all as stable as it might seem at first glance. It is guaranteed until December 2, but no one knows what will happen later. To carry out a strong binding to Putin and to be a kind of basis for his further activity - for United Russia this is the key to confidence in the future.

All this will depend on different factors, primarily on the result of "United Russia" in the elections to the State Duma. And it is more important here is not even the result itself, but how it will be perceived in political circles, primarily in the Kremlin: as a successful, supercultural or not very successful. Secondly, the general alignment of forces in the ruling team after the presidential election will be of great importance. Not all key figures in the immediate environment of the president have sympathy for United Russia, there are those who treat it coldly. If it is these people who take the key positions in the Kremlin after 2008, then I do not think that they would be enthusiasts of this kind of structures.

Alexander Konovalov , President of the Institute of Strategic Objects:

This initiative is complete idiocy, but it will have consequences. The thing is that upstairs will not decide what kind of political system we created or create. Everything changed dramatically after the Congress of the United Russia party. Even those plans that were developed by the Presidential Administration are now clearly adjusted. Now everything is done hastily, "from the wheels."

We have already had changes that, strictly speaking, are not very consistent with the Constitution. Firstly, in general, we will not have parliamentary elections, but there will be a plebiscite that is carried out with the aim of giving Putin the status of a national political leader. United Russia should gain so many votes that Putin is the only legitimate leader in any situation. And what's next? Then they themselves still do not know what to do, because in any case it creates a situation of dual power.

Suppose Putin will receive the mandate of the absolute political leader of the nation. The fact that he will receive him practically does not cause doubts, but it is not clear what he will do with it. If he does not occupy any officially significant posts, then two cabinets will appear in the Kremlin, one will be written on the President of the Russian Federation, and the “political leader of the Russian Federation” will be written on the other. This will make a complete displacement of the head axes at the bureaucracy, which today runs Russia, because it will not be clear which office to run to express the loyalty, in which - to solve the problem, and who is the boss generally. As a result, someone will run into one office, someone in another, and someone is in the third, where he will recreate the usual system of the bureaucratic hierarchy. This will bring the ruling class to complete schizophrenia, and this will not lead to anything but bloody swara.

The initiative of "United Russia" is an attempt to come up with a way to remain in power, that is, where it is now, but this is not only the authorities, but also property. For some, this is a matter of an income source, and for some a question of freedom. Therefore, United Russia and want the political post of the "Elder Tsar" to be introduced.

However, an attempt to perpetuate the political situation is so incompatible with modernity and democracy that nothing can cause anything except regret about the mental abilities of someone who proposes it.