The second shaft?

Do I need to be afraid of the autumn peak of the Covid-19 epidemic?

Statistics indicate an increase in the incidence of Covid-19 in Russia in September. What is this: signs of a powerful second wave of coronavirus, statistical artifact or fluctuation? We asked questions to Professor NIU HSE, doctor of medical sciences Vasily Vlasov.

- All over the world, after some decrease in the incidence in the spring, a new stage of the epidemic began. In all countries where the spread of the virus has been effectively crushed (for example, in Israel, Australia), there has been a significant increase in the incidence exceeding the first wave. Australia quickly coped with this new wave, and Israel continues to fight. The height of the new wave in Israel is many times higher than the spring.

On the contrary, in countries where suppression measures were relatively soft, there is a decrease. And there are no signs of a significant second wave (for example, in Sweden, Uruguay).

In Russia, the suppression of the first wave was not very effective; We see that the incidence persists at a fairly high level. Therefore, it can be assumed that there will be no large autumn wave of incidence.

It is important that the technique of collecting statistics on assessing the state of patients and the causes of death is constantly changing, and we can say that it is being improved, therefore, small changes in statistics must be perceived calmly. Three weeks ago, an increase in incidence is a normal consequence of increased communication: people after vacations, after the start of classes in schools and universities. I think there is reason to believe that this increase will not be significant.

An important feature of this fall is that the chiefs, including the heads of healthcare, scare the population with incidence of influenza.

In fact, this year there is a very low incidence of influenza. This is probably due to the fact that people are actively trying not to become infected with a new infection. At the same time, they also protect themselves from influenza and other colds. It is hoped that the low incidence of influenza will remain until spring, when the flu usually comes to us. ”