Vladimir Putin says goodbye. But it does not leave
Vladimir Putin found his "place in the ranks." Finally, the meaning of his protracted “farewell tour” became clear: he says goodbye so that he would not go anywhere. How the president’s ideas about his future changed and how it threatens us - explored The New Times
Over the past month, Vladimir Putin held at least eight meetings at at least eight, at which he summed up: a meeting with Patriarch Alexy II and laureates of the Prize of the Foundation “Unity of Orthodox Peoples”; expanded meeting of the College of the FSB; meeting of the Council for the Development of Local Self -Government and a meeting of the expanded college of the Ministry of Internal Affairs; speeches on the 15th anniversary of Gazprom and program speech “On the Development Strategy of Russia until 2020” at the State Council; Almost a five-hour press conference in the Kremlin and, finally, this week, February 20, the announced speech at the opening of the 12th World Russian People’s Cathedral in the Kremlin Palace.
Farewell to the Slavs
So, the president says goodbye: “All assigned tasks have been achieved. All set goals have been achieved. The tasks are completed ”-this is from his speech at the Kremlin press conference. And - does not say goodbye: “I formulated the tasks for the development of Russia from 2010 to 2020. And fate is formed so that I have the opportunity to take part, direct, in achieving these goals, ”Putin said at his press conference. “We just need to be happy and work.”
At the same time, the president endlessly recalls that he did not rewrite the constitution for himself and does not intend to rewrite. Analysts wondered for a long time: why such a scrupulousness, if, as one famous politician noted, the basic law of the country, its spirit and meaning “has been raped and trampled in recent years”? And indeed: for the constitutional consolidation of the functions of the head of state, Putin had to make changes only to one article 81 and only in one of its paragraph 3, 1 replacing “more than two consecutive terms” with “three”, “four” or completely removing restrictions. Leaving and remaining, Putin violates the main principle of the constitution - the principle of replacement of power.
Now, finally, everything fell into place. All the last months, Vladimir Putin has been looking for a structure that would allow him, on the one hand, to look in the eyes of the Western establishment by a person who plays according to the rules of the civilized world and can keep his word, on the other hand, to maintain control of the authorities and property and thereby satisfy the request of the power clan, which he himself brought to the Kremlin and the hostage of which awaited or not expecting it - became. Simply put: how to become Old Man Lukashenko and at the same time preserve the handshake of the Western elite?
The heart is prone to betrayal
For the first time, Putin announced his departure after two constitutional terms back in 2001. Then, speaking at a solemn reception in the Kremlin on the occasion of the 8th anniversary of the adoption of the Constitution, the president said: “The Constitution is the basis of the law of the state. She will never be an ideological beup or someone’s political toy again. This fully refers to the term of presidential powers, which will not change under the current president. ”
In 2005: “I see my task not to sit forever in the Kremlin,” the president said during a “direct line” with the Russians.
On many hours of gatherings with the so -called Valdai club - annual meetings of the head of state with Western experts 2 - Putin also invariably confirmed his intention to leave. So it was in 2004, it was in 2005, and in 2006, Putin recorded his commitment to the Basic Law in writing.
The political scientist from Washington Nikolai Zlobin in his forehead asked Putin if he was going to remain president for the third term? "What do you want from me?" - the president answered a question with a question. Political scientist: “The answer to the question: will you run for a third term? Yes or not? Only “yes” or “no”? Putin: “No. This is all?" Political scientist: “No. Will you change the constitution? Yes or not? " Putin: "No."
According to the results of this meeting, Vladimir Putin wrote to the Washington guest with Russian roots even a receipt that he would leave and gave the pen, which he signed the document.
Active events
However, convincing the West, Putin, apparently, already in the middle of his second term begins to seriously think about what it will be difficult for him to leave. And in 2007, the operation "third term" is already included in the active phase. The Kremlin ideologists throw to the masses historical parallels between Putin and Franklin Delaino Roosevelt, who in 1940, during the raids of Nazi aviation to the UK, makes a decision and is elected for a third term. (After the death of F.D. Roosevelt, the US Congress made amendments to the Constitution that restricts the president two terms.) The parallel is transparent: there is a battle for Russia, which will simply die without Putin. By the end of 2007, a new allusion referring to Deng Xiaopin: Putin is a “national leader”. The president proves complaints about this leadership during the parliamentary campaign triumphant for United Russia.
By the end of 2007, Putin finally understands: he will not be able to leave. The “vertical of power” created by him will collapse without it. But the main thing: the assets of the pro -Kremlin clans, the security forces primarily for whom Putin is the only guarantee of the inviolability of their property and accounts, will burden. So the president finally becomes a hostage to the vertical he built. But this is still half -worn. The trouble is that this begins to understand in those circles whose opinion for Vladimir Putin is really important (he treats his own servant with frank and more and more often demonstrated contempt)-in the circles of the Western political and financial elite.
Wolves, wolves
The president was not explained, but neither at the Leningrad State University, nor at the Red Banner Institute of Intelligence, they did not teach him that the modern capitalist world lives according to the laws of the so -called incomplete contracts. In other words, relations between partners in the political or entrepreneurial market cannot be prescribed on paper: always outside the contract remains that is not regulated by paper - trust in the partner and its word. On the political world Olympus, the words spoken by closed telephone or at the meetings of the “eight” by presidents/prime ministers sometimes matter more than dozens of signed agreements and agreements. That's exactly why Putin’s oaths in the fidelity of the Constitution in the West perceived in half. We looked at business. And they noticed that one is contrary to the other. He says: “The state is not interested in the destruction of Yukos” - and destroys. He says: “There will be no renationalization” - and creates a state corporation. He says: “I am leaving, I will leave” - and does not leave. So Vladimir Putin was increasingly on the same hand not with Nicolas Sarkozy or Gordon Brown, but with Lukashenko, Nazarbayev, Islam Karimov. Judging by that aggression and on that street, if not the criminal, the hairdryer with which Putin attacks the West today, the president himself understands: this world may close for him. Hence the aggression.
Financial guarantees
What did Putin count on, so risking? Why was he sure that the new president, even if it was his old friend, would not send Putin to the Putin, forgetting about the “national leader” and about “the highest trust ratings”? Answer: to Gazprom. Economist Vladimir Milov and politician Boris Nemtsov in his report “Putin. Results ”prescribed a mechanism with which the president built the near circle for him - and for himself - a safe, as it seemed to them, wandering. According to experts, in the last three years, Gazprom without any competition, according to an opaque procedure, transferred his most important financial assets to third parties. First, the subsidiary of Sogaz: in 2005, according to Nemtsov and Milov, it was transferred to the structures of the St. Petersburg Bank "Russia". “At that moment, all his assets were approximately equal to the value of Sogaz (1 billion dollars). However, Sogaz was not sold at an open auction, but was transferred to this small bank, the authors of the report write. - In 2006, the reserves of the Gazfont Pension Fund with a total of more than $ 6 billion transferred to the Office of Rossiy Bank structures. At the end of 2006 - early 2007. For this money, more than 50% of Gazprombank were purchased, which by the end of 2007 by the second bank of the country in terms of assets after Sberbank. ” 3 Not only: in 2005, the authors of the study claim when Gazprombank had not yet been controlled by the Russian Bank, all the assets of the other structure of the corporation-Gazprom-Media, whose cost estimated at $ 7.5 billion, were also transferred to it.
Thus, all Gazprom media resources, its pension resources now belong to the Bank of Russia, which, according to, controls the significant part of the cash flows of the most important Russian monopoly. The largest shareholder of the Bank "Russia", we recall, is a longtime friend of Vladimir Putin Yuri Kovalchuk. (In No. 18 dated June 15, 2007, The New Times wrote in detail about the activities of this bank in St. Petersburg in the early 90s and its cooperation with the Committee of the St. Petersburg City Hall on the external relations then headed by Putin.)
The future President of Russia Dmitry Medvedev - Chairman of the Board of Directors of Gazprom - is unlikely to not know all these circumstances. Consequently, he perfectly understands that in addition to the “popular trust” and the “political weight”, with which the “National Leader” Vladimir Putin will move from the Kremlin to the White House, the ex-president will also transport control over the largest national corporation, which owns sufficient media activists, in order to destroy any ratings of the successor in the shortest possible time, if he decides to puzzle the premiere of power. Putin.
Western intrigues
But the well -built design suddenly staggered overnight. And the reason for this is a possible global economic crisis and, as a result, a drop in energy prices. The debt of private and state companies is close to $ 400 billion to creditors, while gold and foreign exchange reserves amount to $ 460 billion, the stab fund is $ 160 billion (see interview with the head of the RAO EES Anatoly Chubais in The New Times No. 6 for 2008). The hole in the budget only Gazprom, according to Vladimir Milov, is $ 50 billion. If oil prices fall, and the cost of money in the world market will increase, then ... Actually, we have already passed this scenario-both in the 80s and in the 90s.
Vladimir Putin, of course, understands these risks. As he understands that his future, as well as the stability of the country, was suspended on a thin thread: he will not carry it? And the aphorisms of the last week: “Sile into the wall and on the side” or “What, do you want me to eat the earth from a pot with flowers? And swore on the blood? " - A direct consequence of this. And the evidence that the president himself is by no means so confident in his future, as it demonstrates to us and the world. The scenery is changing. But whether they stand - a big question. _________________________ 1 "The same person cannot occupy the post of president of the Russian Federation for more than two in a row." 2 These meetings were organized by the State Information Agency of RIA Novosti. 3 Boris Nemtsov, Vladimir Milov. "Putin. Results ", Publishing House" New Gazeta ", 2008
