Caliphate blockade*

In Iraq, the forces of the international coalition are preparing for the assault on Mosul, the unofficial capital of the so -called “Islamic state”*. After that, the allies, according to the US Secretary of Defense Aston Carter, will begin the operation to liberate Raqqa - the stronghold of IG* in Syria. Whether the falling points of the Islamists will lead to their complete defeat-the famous French specialist in the Arab world, the chief editor of Paris Match, who recently returned from Syria, is shared by thoughts on this.

From Damascus to Rakki about 450 kilometers, but there is no road there today: the ancient city on the northern coast of the Euphrates for more than three years has been captured by the fighters of IG*. From Rakka to Iraqi Mosul, the unofficial capital of IG*, is about the same distance. It is in Mosul that the residence of the "caliph" Abu Bakra al-Baghdadi, the leader of IG*. The Islamic State* was born in Iraq. And it will also die in Iraq when Mosul falls. And after a few months, Rakka will also be free from the Islamists - most likely, in early 2017, IG* will no longer be in this Syrian city.

Union of the military and fanatics

To begin with, it is worth recalling how IG*appeared. After the invasion of the US armed forces and their allies in Iraq and the overthrow of the Saddam Hussein regime, the key positions in the state apparatus and the army occupied Shiites. The state’s leadership included proctic politicians. Recall that Iran is a country with which Iraq fought for almost 10 years - from 1980 to 1988. The millions of victims of that war were still fresh in the memory of the Iraqis, who were outraged that the Americans allowed the country to rule their former sworn enemies. After the victory of the Shiites in the 2005 parliamentary elections, a huge part of the Arabs-Sunnis was infringed on the rights. In 2006-2008, the entire Sunni top of the Iraqi army was in a military prison. In those years, the Americans committed another monstrous oversight: they planted the officer elite of the Saddam army with fanatics-dzhikhadists behind bars. Both of them longed for revenge and did not miss the opportunity to take it, combining their efforts. So in Iraq appeared a strong, well -organized army with military discipline. At first, it was part of the al-Qaeda **, then I saved it, changing the name to the “Islamic state of Iraq and Levant” (the former name IG*.-NT).

Many today admit: the invasion of Iraq in 2003 was a mistake. When the United States withdrew the bulk of its military contingent from Iraq in 2010, this was also a mistake. The Americans left too early: by that time the new Iraqi army was not ready for independent actions to protect the interests of the state. Confirmation of this is her shameful flight from Mosul in 2014, when the city actually seized several hundred Islamists without a fight.

Today, the United States intends to take revenge for the previous oversights. Barack Obama probably would like to leave the oval office in the White House, returning Mosul to the Iraqi government. But if the mosul is taken, a new problem will arise - the management of this liberated Sunni city. Who will do this? Iraqi army? Yes, there is the so-called “golden division”, consisting of Sunnis and Shiites, but the bone of the army is still made by Shiites. Kurds? The fact that they will not be able to manage one and a half million Arabs-Sunnis is not the same mentality is obvious. Ex-bombs with IG* from local residents? In general, after the liberation of Mosul, too many players will appear on this field, and it is not known which of them will prevail.

The front is dissatisfied

Meanwhile, the group “Jebhat al-Nusra” (“Ang Nusra Front”) *** plays an increasingly noticeable role at the Middle East Theater of Military operations. These are the “neoplasm” of the jihadists who follow the testaments of Osama Ben Laden, can be called the most successful project al-Qaeda ** after 2001. Ang Nusra fighters *** are very effective in battle. It was they in 2013 that captured Racca for IG*.

“If the mosul is taken, a new problem will arise - who will manage the liberated Sunni city?”

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, dreaming of creating the state of Islamists on the territory of Iraq and Syria, understood that IG* exists only thanks to the frustration of the Sunni elite Iraq, which they dared from the political arena of the country after 2003. You can talk a lot about jihad, bad social conditions, the dissatisfaction of the Syrians by President Bashar al -Assad and so on, but the fact remains: when Iraq does not become a disappointed Sunni military elite - IG*will not. Therefore, al-Baghdadi needed other dissatisfied, in addition to the Iraqi military. And he decided to combine the fragmented forces of the Syrian political rebels, who were not satisfied with the Assad regime, but who were always very disorganized and did not pose a real threat to the authorities. Of these, al-Baghdadi formed the combat army-the "front of the al-Nusra" ***. Over time, this organization was supposed to enter its Great Caliphate with the capital in Mosul. I emphasize - in the Iraqi Mosul, and not in Syrian rocket.

This, by the way, suggests that the goals of Al-Baghdadi and the Syrian opposition are still different. "Caliphate" is primarily the territory of Iraq. The rebels who are fighting against the Assad regime are the Syrians, like their leaders. For this reason, certain groups of Syrian resistance refuse to be part of IG*or “al-Nusra” ***.

Without deception

I would like to believe that both the United States and Russia will show the foresight in their actions in Iraq and Syria - each country will take on the terrorist organization and crush it. I think that it will be exactly so, despite all the disputes, evasions and provocations: then the Americans will drop bombs into the Syrian army three times and justify that the mistake came out, Russia, as they say, bombs the humanitarian convoy, and then denies it with all its might. At the same time, there are inexplicable things for me personally: how to understand, for example, the support of the States of the Army of the Syrian rebels who are fighting with the Syria army, whose military victories over Ig* Americans are also happy. The position of Russia is personally more understandable to me. The Russians act decisively, even because of carpet bombing and look like monsters in the eyes of a civilized world. Of course, sitting somewhere in the south of France, it is easy to sigh, looking on the TV at Aleppo quarters bombed with Russian aircraft. But there is no need to deceive itself: Russia is fighting with the brilliantly prepared and very well -armed army of Islamists, who have everything except aviation.

* “Islamic State”, IGIL, ISIS, Daish, Caliphate - an organization banned in the Russian Federation as terrorist.

** "Al-Qaeda"-an organization banned in the Russian Federation as terrorist.

*** “Jebhat al-Nusra” (AN-Nusra Front) is an organization banned in the Russian Federation as a terrorist.