179.5 is not Fahrenheit. The price of gas for Ukraine for 2008 seems to have been agreed upon: from January 1, the price of fuel will rise by 38% - from $130 to $179.5 per thousand cubic meters. But these agreements will not add gas stability to Ukraine
Andrey Kapustin
Kyiv
It all started on September 26, 2003, when President of Ukraine Leonid Kuchma signed a decree "On measures to develop the production of fuel from biological raw materials." This document was issued with the aim of reducing the dependence of the national economy on energy imports. Then the head of the Ukrainian state decided that ensuring the development of production and expanding the use of fuel from biological raw materials is one of the priorities for the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, central and local executive authorities. The government, which at that time was headed by Viktor Yanukovych, was instructed to develop and approve by January 1, 2005 programs for the development of the production of biological diesel fuel and biogas for the period up to 2010. Translated into a common language, this meant that the reduction of dependence on energy imports would be carried out, among other things, through the production of these same energy carriers from the excrement of cows, pigs, horses and other domestic animals.
However, by January 1, 2005, the political situation in Ukraine had undergone drastic changes. Viktor Yanukovych lost the presidential election, and the new government began a resolute struggle against the legacy of Leonid Kuchma on all fronts.
Turkmen force majeure
Then a big gas confrontation with Russia began. True, this fight from the outside looks like sparring, say, a golfer and a tennis player. Since Russia has gas, and Ukraine has a pipe through which billions of cubic meters of Russian "blue fuel" are delivered to Europe. That is, there is a ratio of the price of Russian gas and the cost of Ukrainian transit. And it turns out that Russia hits the ball with a stick, and Ukraine beats it off the hole with a racket.
The next round of this match ended on December 4, when acting. Ukrainian Minister of Fuel and Energy Yuriy Boyko held talks in Moscow with the head of Gazprom, Alexei Miller. The result was a new price for Russian gas with a staggering figure for Ukraine - $179.5 per thousand cubic meters. True, it is difficult to unequivocally explain this by the Kremlin's perfidy. Because there is a Turkmen factor. More precisely, force majeure caused by the unexpected recent decision of the Turkmen authorities to raise the price of gas for Gazprom: from $130 per thousand cubic meters in the first half of next year and up to $150 in the second, with the previously agreed $100.
Turkmen force majeure has become such for Ukraine, which has actually already agreed with Russia on the price of 160 USD. per thousand cubic meters. And it is for gas of non-Russian origin. And now - plus nineteen fifty.
In response, Ukraine timidly raised the price of transit by as much as 10 cents. But, as already mentioned, Mr. Boyko ended the talks on December 4 in the afternoon. And in the evening in the Verkhovna Rada there was a vote on the candidacy of the speaker. One candidate was submitted for consideration by the deputies - acting. Foreign Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, who was nominated by the coalition of the Our Ukraine-People's Self-Defense bloc and the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc. Which, in turn, implies the subsequent nomination of Yulia Tymoshenko herself to the post of head of government. The vote, albeit with a scandal, was successful. And 33-year-old Yatsenyuk became a speaker. Twenty-five minutes before the announcement of the voting results, the future speaker in a private conversation with The New Times said that he could not comment on the gas agreement, because he had not seen the documents, but if the price of $ 179.5 is confirmed, then he sees a further need to revise the price of Ukrainian transit . And of course, upwards.
Timoshenko factor
It is not yet clear how Russia will react to this in the event of a new round of negotiations. But there can be no doubt that this counterproposal will not evoke positive emotions in the Kremlin. In addition, in 10-12 days, the new Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, a lady who is very competent in gas issues, may personally join the negotiation process. It has been dreaming of transferring Ukrainian-Russian gas relations to a different format for a year now. It does not provide for the presence of a monopoly gas supplier to Ukraine - the intermediary company RosUkrEnergo, where 50% of the shares belong to the Russian Gazprom, and the rest to Ukrainian businessman Dmitry Firtash.
The structure, to put it mildly, is scandalous, which has led to a number of international anti-corruption investigations. At the same time, the same Tymoshenko has repeatedly stated that Yuriy Boyko, mentioned above, is directly related to RosUkrEnergo. So, if Ms. Timoshenko comes to the executive branch, the gas negotiations may turn into a plane that is unpleasant for Russia. This is indirectly confirmed by the statement of Oleksandr Turchynov, the closest associate of Yulia Tymoshenko, who, when he was the head of the Ukrainian security service in 2005, was apparently not allowed to strangle RosUkrEnergo. Tellingly, he made this statement again on December 4th.
“If the price for transit is fixed within the borders around which the negotiations were going on,” Mr. Turchinov said, “this can only be called national treason.” Thus, he indirectly confirmed not only the tariff thesis of Yatsenyuk, but also the direction of the gas vector of Tymoshenko herself, who, in conjunction with the new speaker, can create an effective tandem of executive and legislative power.
So for the time being, it can be predicted that Ukraine will meet the year 2008 in the conditions of yet another gas instability. And who knows, maybe the new government will have to return to the old decree of President Kuchma. Moreover, the recipe for the production of fuel from biological raw materials is not so complicated. “To get gas at home, you need to mix 1.5 tons of cow dung and 3.5 tons of rotten leaves, tops and other waste. Add to the mixture of water up to 60-70% humidity. Lay the mixture in the pit and use a coil to heat up to 35 degrees. Then the mixture will begin to ferment and, without access to air, it will itself warm up to 70 degrees. The production time for gas from manure is two weeks. The unit produces up to 40 cubic meters of "blue fuel" per day. Five tons of mixture is enough for six months ...
