For licentiousness - dissolution

Graffiti on the Kadyrov bridge in St. Petersburg before and after Prigozhinsky rebellion

The failed Wagnerian rebellion will have a long -term effect. Now, in fact, the process of liquidation of the Empire Evgeny Prigozhin is underway. His media holding, including the famous "troll factory", apparently, will go to the structures of Yuri Kovalchuk. The Concord company belonging to Prigozhin, apparently, is waiting for a quick bankruptcy, since the Ministry of Defense terminated the contracts with it for the supply of food. Obviously, the department of Shoigu will be followed by other state structures that financed Prigozhin.

The set of mercenaries in the Wagner PMC, so far for a month, officially - in connection with the relocation of the Wagnerians in Belarus and the temporary non -participation in the war against Ukraine. However, in the fact that in a month the set will resume, and the Wagner PMC will ultimately remain, there are great doubts.

First, Putin, and then the Kremlin propagandist Dmitry Kiselev confirmed that it had long been a secret of the police: Wagner was almost completely funded by the Russian state. Kiselev said that Prigozhinsky PMC received more than 858 billion rubles under state contracts. In addition, according to other contracts, which, according to Putin, were received using the state, Concord provided services for 845 billion rubles - according to Putin, mainly due to the supply of food supplies to the Ministry of Defense. As Kiselev said, "this does not mean that they earned so much, but still speaks of the scale of business and the scale of ambitions." Now not only Prigozhin will not receive any state contracts - it may well be accused of embezzlement of public funds on an especially large scale. After all, guarantees of the termination of criminal prosecution, transferred through Lukashenko, concerned only the case of an armed rebellion.

There is no evidence that any heavy weapons and military equipment of the Wagnerians were moved to Belarus. Yes, and it is difficult to imagine that Lukashenko would agree to tolerate a private army with tanks, armored veins, self -propelled howitzers and air defense means, it is not clear to anyone controlled by Minsk. A camp created in the Mogilev region for the Wagnerians, as if he is able to accept up to 15 thousand people. But neither Lukashenko nor Putin will never agree to such a large army under the command of Prigozhin. From Mogilev to Moscow is much closer than from Rostov-on-Don, and to Minsk is generally a stone's throw. The maximum that Lukashenko will be ready for is to allow Prigozhin to leave several hundred Wagnerians under his leadership, who, according to the intention of the Minsk dictator, will train local special forces. Perhaps this is even ready to allocate funds from the Belarusian budget.

And Prigozhin himself was deprived of sources of income both in Russia and abroad. In Syria, the commanders of the Vagner group were arrested. And the Kremlin made it clear to the African allies that he was ready to replace the Wagnerians with fighters of Russian PMCs, controlled by the Ministry of Defense and other departments and state corporations. And what remains of Prigozhin? Any deposits on secret accounts in foreign banks made on dummies? But getting to them in the conditions of international sanctions will not be easy. Of course, Prigozhin will not die from the hunger, because it probably has stoons in cash currency. This may be enough for "survival", but not on the maintenance of a private army. The best option for Prigozhin is to act together with part of the commanders and the most devoted fighters of the Wagner PMC to serve some African country, which is not too dependent on the Kremlin. But it is not a fact that he will be given to do this.

And as the most combat -ready part of the Russian Armed Forces of the Wagner PMC has already ceased to exist. Of course, a significant part of the Wagnerians, or even the majority, can continue service in the regular army and other PMCs. But without former commanders and charters, they will very quickly lose their combat effectiveness. Thus, Ukraine got rid of its most dangerous enemy in the ranks of the Russian troops. And this is likely to limit the ability of the Russian armed forces to carry out any successful offensive operations even more.

Putin Prigozhinsky rebellion in many ways made a "lame duck". The whole world was convinced of its inability to take any meaningful actions to suppress the rebellion, as well as in the lack of Putin’s support of the population and Elit. Most Russians, if they are ready to support it, then just without getting up from the couch. And most importantly, the army, although it did not go over to the side of the rebels, did not show much desire to defend Putin. Putin himself, according to a number of evidence, during the Vagnerovites march to the capital, he left Moscow, once again demonstrating his courage known to the world. Immediately recalls the “World History, processed by Satyricon”: “Tokhtamysh killed Mamaia and went to Moscow to punish Dmitry Donskoy. But Dmitry Donskoy Overkhitril of a stupid khan. Learning about his approach, he left Moscow.” The flight from Moscow had no practical meaning. Even if Prigozhin’s people took Moscow (and this could happen only if a significant part of the regular army was joining them), it would not care where Putin was at that moment - in Moscow, in Valdai or in St. Petersburg. Prigozhin was not going to overthrow him formally - Putin would have turned into a puppet of the Kremlin Chef, which took control of the power structures. And now this is a terrible dream of Putin - once one or more brigade commander -in -laws fighting in Ukraine can agree with each other and go to Moscow, and this time the army will support them.

The world also became convinced of the weakness and cowardice of Putin. Is it possible now to seriously fear escalation in the form of the use of tactical nuclear weapons? Even if Putin gives such an order, will he be executed?

Now many obstacles should be removed on the way of supplying Kyiv of the most modern weapons and the future entry of Ukraine to NATO. After all, only in this way it will be possible to stabilize the situation in Eastern Europe. Now the main fears of the United States and its allies are caused by the fact that the revolution in Russia, like Prigozhinsky putting, can lead to chaos in a nuclear power. The West, in all likelihood, would most of all arrange some neat palace coup in Russia, as a result of which a more sane ruler would come to power. Perhaps the chances of implementing such an unlikely script will increase in the case of military victories of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.