As a result of the financial crisis, the tourist market was at risk. Demand for a number of directions has already fallen and will fall further. Which of the tour operators will be able to survive the crisis and whether travel lovers will win from the probable redistribution of the market - the New Times found out
The tourist market froze in anticipation: citizens are afraid to purchase tours in advance, and for this reason they cannot plan anything. “Today, the so-called depth of sales is completely absent in the tourism industry-people seemed to all at once abandoned long-term recreation planning,” says Irina Tyurina, spokeswoman for the Russian Union of Trade of Trade . “Instead, they buy“ burning tours ”in 2-3 days, a maximum of departure a maximum of departure, taking advantage of the fact that they have multiple visas.”
On traditionally popular New Year tours, demand has decreased by 30-50% depending on the direction. According to Alevtina Philosopher LLC, Deputy General Director of Capital Tour LLC , in previous years, by mid -November, as a rule, up to 70% of New Year's trips were redeemed. But the tour operators in the hope of profitable to realize the vouchers for a long time bought up not only the “low” New Year season, but also the “high” New Year. It cannot be excluded that closer to the New Year will begin a price reset - and some of the companies will be on the threshold of ruin.
To direct questions about the possible reduction in prices for tours, market participants answer evasively, preferring "and there is no talk." “In general, the demand is, of course, decreasing,” the President of the Russian Union of Trade, Sergei Spilo, the President of the Russian Union of Trade, admitted. “As with all the expensive consumer goods, it will most likely shift towards a cheaper product.”
Credit as a risk factor
The tourist industry in all countries is arranged the same: a certain number of large companies-universal tourist operators operate on the market. The rest of the market is occupied by “niche” operators specializing in a limited number of directions, in exclusive products. And of course, the army of travel agencies, who play the role of intermediaries between operators and citizens. In Russia, 95% of the tourism industry companies are small businesses.
The revolutions of the largest Russian tour operators, such as TEZ Tour or Natalie Tours, make up about $ 2 billion according to experts. But does this mean that during the crisis, giants certainly survive? “Those companies that work with“ blocks ”(wholesale purchase of places in hotels) and charter flights risk more, especially now, when banks began to delay payments,” says Sergey Shpilko. Risks are growing if the share of loans in the company's payments exceeds 15%. According to the expert, the blow has already come on those who work with corporate clients, providing loans for the purchase of tours to company employees. Working by bank transfer, they turned out to be hostages of banks.
As a result of the crisis, the market will most likely be cleaned. “The crisis, of course, will hit small and medium -sized companies, he will survive the strongest,” said Dmitry Davydenko, General Director of the Center for the Protection of Citizens beyond the Border. “And just the largest operators are not afraid of the credit crisis, they work at their turns, they have a lot of cash, and if that, business partners will meet them, both hoteliers and airlines.”
And if we assume the worst, people learn about the bankruptcy of their tour operator when the hotel refuses to settle, how did this happen to the Clients of the Detss company this summer in Turkey? In such cases, citizens will always be “extreme”, no “financial guarantees” of tour operators (we are talking about mandatory insurance of the responsibility of operators to third parties) do not compensate them for a damaged rest, since the money will be paid only post -facts by insurance companies.
At the same time, lobbying battles about the size of the guarantees will not subside in any way: while the amount of 100 million rubles for all market participants is being discussed, but there is an alternative option. It consists in setting the amount of guarantees as a percentage of the company's turnover - this will complicate the life of large operators and relieve small financial loads small.
What are the market participants count in such a difficult situation? To some extent-to reduce air transportation costs, because the price of oil and fuel fell. In addition, in the tourism industry as a whole, the state reduction has already begun. Companies claim that so far “Ballast” is leaving - unskilled employees who have not managed to pass certification. In parallel, travel companies reduce the number of offices and points of sales.
In what currency is the winnings?
Under all market laws, a reduction in demand should lead to a reduction in prices on average in the market, if only because companies will be forced to fight for the client. But even if it takes place, those who, until recently, bought tours more expensive, will gradually replace Spain and Italy Egypt or Turkey.
You can win at seasonal discounts - companies offered them at all times to activate sales. Today, a number of companies are offered by Egypt with a discount of up to 49%, and many other directions are set discounts of 20-30%. You can use the "wars" of tour operators for markets. The latter took place last summer. Many have seen massive advertising of cheap Greek tours from Natalie Tours. According to market participants, this tour operator deliberately dumped and “drove half -empty charters” to squeeze competitors. However, four years ago, in the same way, TEZ Tour supplanted from the Thai direction “Natalie Tours”. As a result, the 70 percent share of Natalie Tours in this market halved.
Irina Tyurina diplomatically says that as a result of such “wars” a tourist may be won. Say, tour operators are not able to agree among themselves to remove part of the charter flights, they will not be filled out, and the prices will fall. The return on one sold place is small (about $ 20), however, if it “burns”, the tour operator loses about $ 120.
It is also important what prices are talking about - in dollars, euros or rubles? If the devaluation of the ruble in relation to world currencies continues, then the increase in prices for tickets in rubles will overtake their possible decrease in dollars. This will immediately affect those whose salary is nominated in rubles: the next summer they are not even awaiting Sochi with the Crimea, but a country garden. According to experts, the replacement of “external” tours “internal” in the near future is not expected due to the traditionally poor price ratio.
Tour play is an imported service and is purchased for currency. And import prices in our situation can only rise. So tour operators are not very crafty: reduction in prices-in the sense of increasing the availability of trips for most Russian citizens-may not happen.
The crisis clearly found both market participants and consumers of tourist services. Therefore, in today's change in demand for different directions, specialists do not see any system. Say, there are no reduction in demand for bus tours to Europe. As for popular ski resorts, today, oddly enough, economical trips to Bulgaria and Slovakia are worse, while expensive alpine are still good. Excursion tours in Europe (Czech Republic, France, Italy, etc.) are sold much better than South Asian destinations, in the old years very in demand in the winter season. Sales of Israel decreased, which is associated with a shortage of places in hotels. But an unexpectedly sharp surge of demand - for New Year's tours in Scandinavia worth from € 1000. Their sales were 3-4 times higher than last year, and this is with a general decrease in interest in the meeting of the New Year abroad. Expensive directions, such as the Dominican Republic or the Maldives, make up a significant part of the preliminary sales. Mass tours to Egypt or India Russians prefer not to buy in advance.
