Gas burner

Relations between Ukraine and Russia are heating up again

Gas war: summer version.
Traditionally, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine unfolds at the end of December and becomes an informational accompaniment to empty New Year holidays. However, this year the performance began on the summer stage. Previously, the dispute was about prices for gas and transit. Now - about when and how to pay. Previously, the “orange threat” was the main lover, now it is also the European Union. The situation on the fronts is being monitored by The New Times

Ukraine denied a Russian loan to pay for gas. “Gazprom, of course, cannot unilaterally finance its partners in Ukraine,” Deputy Prime Minister Sechin said harshly on June 3 at a meeting with President Medvedev. Sechin reported: Ukraine has asked Russia for a $4.2 billion loan to buy 19.5 billion cubic meters of gas, but Gazprom has already paid an advance of $2 billion 150 million for gas transit through Ukraine and does not intend to pay more. On the Finnish shores, Prime Minister Putin echoed: "Russia is not going to gloat over Ukraine's difficulties with paying for gas, but it can't pay for that either." He threatened that if Ukraine did not find funds to settle accounts with Gazprom, the transit of gas to Europe through Ukraine could be suspended as early as the end of June. Gazprom is convinced that Ukraine does not have the funds to pay for the gas supplied to it in May, and for the previous months it was able to pay off only thanks to Gazprom's prepayment. The crisis hit Ukraine harder than Russia: in the first quarter, its GDP fell by almost 20%, and everyone understands that the problem of calculating for May is just flowers: in the summer, Kiev, under an agreement, is obliged to pump 19.5 billion cubic meters into its underground gas storage facilities ( Gazprom’s calculations), which will also have to be paid. The price of the issue is $4.7-4.8 billion. The problem is aggravated by the fact that, having once delayed the payment (since January, according to the contract, payment is made monthly on the 7th), Ukraine will be forced to make a full prepayment for the purchased gas in the future.

Europe is waiting

Putin has already warned about possible failures in the transit of Russian gas to Europe. And he expressed hope that the EU will assist Ukraine in this matter. A little earlier, President Dmitry Medvedev also offered the European Union a loan to pay for gas. Corresponding messages were also sent to the prime ministers of the Czech Republic and Sweden, to the IMF. However, the European Union responded with silence. True, the gas issue is included in the agenda of the EU summit on June 18-19, which was confirmed by the European Commissioner José Manuel Barroso, but Kiev should be paid much earlier than this date - June 7. Apparently, Europe proceeds from the fact that the partners must find a way to resolve the conflict on their own. In addition, the Europeans are now much less sensitive to interruptions in supplies from Russia. In recent months, they have drastically reduced gas consumption in general and Gazprom's in particular. According to Vladimir Feigin, director of the Institute of Energy and Finance, the overall reduction in gas consumption in Europe in the first quarter of 2009 amounted to approximately 5%, and Russian - 40%. It is indicative that the Norwegian Statoil, Gazprom's competitor, has increased the physical volume of gas sales in Europe, and supplies of liquefied gas from Algeria and Libya to the Old World have also increased. In other words, Europe is doing everything to no longer depend on the change of mood within the Russian duumvirate.

Ukraine asks

But Russia still made some concessions to Ukraine. According to the January agreement, which Kiev was forced to sign, Ukraine, in exchange for some price reduction, actually undertook to buy gas in quantities greater than it needs, especially in a crisis (see The New Times No. 1–2 of January 19, 2009 for more details). ). However, in the first quarter, the shortage, which is punishable by a fine, amounted to 3.5 billion cubic meters: Ukraine consumed 2.5 billion out of the planned 6 billion, taking the rest from underground storage facilities. Kiev was threatened with considerable fines, but in April Tymoshenko managed to reach an agreement with Putin, otherwise only in January-April, according to Naftogaz, the fines would have amounted to about $2 billion. that Ukraine agreed in Brussels to modernize its gas transmission system with the participation of the EU, but without Russia. And while Kyiv is not going to give up this idea. Viktor Yushchenko's authorized representative for energy security, Bogdan Sokolovsky, said that work on the implementation of the Brussels Declaration was "developing." In addition, he announced Ukraine's plans to take part in the Nabucco gas pipeline project, the main competitor of the Russian South Stream.

And Russia wants guarantees

Ukraine has a special space for maneuvering. The only thing it can offer is that Russia pays for gas transit to Europe for 5-7 years in advance, and Ukraine transfers this amount (we are talking about $5 billion) to pay for the supplies. At the talks of the CIS heads of government at the end of May, Timoshenko conveyed this idea to Putin. But such a scheme did not suit the Russian prime minister: what is the point of paying for transit for so many years in advance, if it is very likely that gas agreements will have to be reviewed soon? Indeed, according to the already mentioned Brussels agreement, in 2010 Naftogaz, with which all gas payments are now made, will be divided into transport and sales parts. Naturally, Russia does not want to pay in advance to a state-owned company, which is considered to be non-existent. According to sources familiar with the course of negotiations, Moscow at least wants to receive guarantees that in the event of the division of the gas transportation system (GTS) of Ukraine, the continuity of payments and obligations will be ensured.

Third gas?

There are not many options for the development of this conflict. First, Ukraine receives a loan raised with the participation of the EU, Russia, European energy companies and, possibly, the IMF. Moreover, gas is pumped into Ukrainian storage facilities under the supervision of Western inspectors. Such an option might suit Russia, but European partners are not ready for it. In particular, Vladimir Feigin believes that it will be difficult to reach an agreement with the European Union not only because of the financial problems experienced by most countries of the Old World, but also because of the bureaucracy of this organization. The second option - everything is going to him so far - a revision of the terms of supply, on which President Yushchenko insists. The result of the May gas aggravation could be a reduction in prices for gas consumed by Ukraine or a reduction in mandatory quotas. Otherwise, the topic of non-payments, given the state of the Ukrainian economy, will arise every month. But not everything here depends on Russia: Moscow supplies Turkmen gas to Ukraine, and this country has so far refused to lower the price.

However, experts from the Kyiv Center for Political Studies and Conflict Studies believe that Moscow is not even thinking about compromises. “All the actions of the Putin apparatus and the leadership of Gazprom in relation to Ukraine are subordinated to the main goal - the transfer of control over the Ukrainian GTS to Gazprom with the symbolic participation of European gas companies.” Yushchenko speaks in the same vein: "... The use of Naftogaz assets to pay off debt can become a reality." At the moment, we can state that Russia is not yet ready to revise the January agreements, and Europe is not ready to give Ukraine a loan. So it looks like we cannot avoid the third gas war.

According to the January agreements between Vladimir Putin and Yulia Tymoshenko, Ukraine will receive gas at a price lower than Europe by the end of 2019: $450 per 1,000 cubic meters. Once a quarter, a decreasing or increasing coefficient is applied depending on changes in prices for fuel oil and diesel fuel (in Q2, the price was lower than in Q1, and amounted to $270). Exclusive discount for the first year of the agreement - 20%.

Ukraine has pledged to consume 52 billion cubic meters of gas per year, paying for it once a month (on the 7th), and not once a year. If the monthly gas consumption has decreased by more than 6% of the planned one, Kyiv pays a fine. The transit tariff for Russia remained at the same level.