Russia, Ltd.

From Medvedev expected the liberalization of foreign policy. They did not wait. The key message of his performance before ambassadors in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is aggressiveness in defending positions. Concepts and doctrines are accepted when the head of state is changed. It is more difficult with politics. The current publication of the foreign policy of Russia took shape not in 2000, but four years later, after Iraq-Yukos-Beslan-a two expansion of NATO/EU-the Revolution of the Rosa-Kyiv Maidan. This publication found its most complete verbal expression in Putin's Munich speech in 2007.

This policy remains unchanged. Its meaning: the world is competitive by nature. The object of competition is various benefits, a place in the hierarchy, prestige. Russia in this world is an independent, non -Affilled value. She has neither sworn enemies, nor eternal friends. All are partners, in the sense of counterparties. USA and Iran. Hamas and Israel. North and South Korea. TNK and BP. Values ​​in this world are a discussion and strongly politicized question. The only reliable compass is the country's national interests. Moreover, in the interpretation of those who govern the state. The economy prevails in the structure of these interests, and therefore world policy is a concentrated economy.

The rules of competition are determined by the nature of the world order. Changes are coming here: the 500-year dominance of the “historical West” ends, the USA is the last “Western king” of mankind. The Kremlin looks forward. His ideal is a global oligarchy in the form of a “democratic political bureau” or the World Board of Directors, even with the United States as a nominal chairman: Europe “does not pull”, China is unpredictable. It is enough for Russia to be a senior vice president with the right of a veto (it is here that the unfading love of Moscow for the UN is rooted).

The problem of Russia is an obvious lack of resources for symmetrical competition with leading powers. She is like a boxer who stubbornly seeks to play in a heavier weight category. But the Russian Federation in the foreseeable future will not be able to compete with the USA, the EU, China, as well as India in terms of GDP, scientific and technical potential, military power, not to mention demographic resources. Therefore, Russia's strategy is to change the rules of the game that have developed after the end of the Cold War. The idea is to level the power superiority with the help of international law, to put the United States and their allies in a position when they will either abandon their options for resolving conflicts (Kosovo), plans for promoting democracy (Zimbabwe, Burma) and thereby recognize the “truth of Russia” or go to illegitimate actions with not clear prospects for themselves. At the same time, given the caution of China and the inexperience of India, the peripherality of Brazil and South Africa, the odion of the Iranian regime, to take on the role of “spawksman”, if not a leader, a “new wave”, which is steadily washing the foundations of a worst -centric world order.

How realistic are the Kremlin calculations? Russia's vulnerability is primarily associated with its huge internal problems. Lack of a majority of the necessary institutions; Weak, excessively dependent on the raw material conjuncture, the economy; a dangerous separation of the ruling elite from society; The political backwardness of the “tops” and “lower classes” under the apathy “middle” undermine not only the international ambitions of Russia, but also the prospects for its internal modernization. After all, it is clear that you can not be a defender of international law and have a non -legal state at home; To claim to be considered “with the mind, honor and conscience”, and at the same time confess value relativism.