When there is no money

The results of the elections to the Duma look frightening for the opposition - but perhaps its activity will be more unpleasant for those who voted for power

Of course, this makes an impression-even in the last Duma, known for its aggressive-auditable unanimity, there were first three opposition deputies, then one-and not a single one in the new parliament. The opposition lost both wholesale and retail, the opposition could not unite and mobilize, the opposition did not put forward leaders and did not offer new ideas - it is interesting that for almost all commentators, no matter what part of the political spectrum they belong, the main intrigue of elections to the new Duma is connected with those who are not in this Duma. The past composition of the parliament, probably, will ever write in the textbooks that its main goal and meaning was to restrict political freedoms and suppress protest moods-and new elections in the context of this plot look like a spectacular, crushing final: this is not so much the victory of United Russia as the victory over Parnas and the “Yabloko”. And if we assume that this is not the finale of the entire series, but only a bridge thrown for the second season, it is scary to think how many closures and prohibitions a new, even more monolithic and controlled, parliament prepares us. Moreover, the whole first week after the elections was under the sign of three gloomy letters: the FSB then, the FSB, the FSB is going to absorb (or at least permeate it by itself) all the power structures, and then the entire Russian Internet, and from every word in these news, as said in the book about Mitskov, blows the execution.

On the other hand, strange. To ensure one hundred percent controllability of the Duma, to create power structures with superforters, to read the entire Internet correspondence of all Russian citizens-so that I don’t even know with whom, with a blogger Maltsev? Some kind of disproportionate luxury! After all, it may happen that for the new season the scriptwriters came up with another intrigue and all these mobilization-blue overtures on the credits do not mean the final defeat of three and a half of the remaining opposition politicians and two and a half independent media? What else can explain such a Duma (and even, presumably, led by its chief architect) - the new powers of the FSB, more and more likely early presidential elections?

The authorities in the foreseeable perspective will not be rallies of those who have nowhere to read the news, but the protests of those who have stopped paying a salary

There may be several options. For example, a big war. Or the predictions of Zoroastrian astrologers promising the fall of the regime in 2017. Or some extremely unpopular measures that this Duma should take and without which the state in its current form can no longer exist.

To assume what kind of measures this is not necessary to be a Zoroastrian astrologer: the sanctions are not canceled, oil prices are not rising, the money for defense at the current international situation will continue to spend the huge ones, and not only the Rotenberg brothers, and even the Colonels Zakharchenko are not going to die of their appetites. We'll have to tighten the belts. The main plot for the current Duma may be cutting social expenses, raising the retirement age, increase in direct and indirect taxes; In general, filling the treasury at the expense of those who chose this Duma. All this does not cancel new wars or there the accessions of Donbass - starting to play large geopolitical chess, it is very difficult to complete the match of a friendly draw; But in this case, the belts will have to be tightened even more. All this does not remove from the agenda a further struggle with the conditional Maltsev or independent media - but the authorities in the foreseeable perspective will not be rallies of those who have nowhere to read the news, but the protests of those who have stopped paying salaries are not a ghost of the Maidan over the future Duma, but memories of monetizing benefits. And, of course, this does not exclude the further Orthodox-patriotic upsurge, as well as the fight against external and internal enemies-not with the aim of dividing society into their own and strangers, but as an anesthetic that allows you to forget that there is no money, and to hold on.

The good news for the opposition is that there will be more conflicts within this seemingly monolithic folk party unity than ever. Bad - in the fact that in these conflicts the ability to shoot creative videos or conduct party congresses is hardly useful: you need to be where people are bad, and speak the same language with them. There is time-but this is not an infinitely stretching time remaining until the next elections: this is a new time that will come about.