Even more "United Russia"

Why the Party of power of the authorities of the Constitutional majority in parliament, what consequences can this have and what benefits can extract from the post -sophisticated situation, the opposition explains - explains The New Times

NT foreign interlocutors are surprised: “How did you be in the room handed over two days before the election, to predict exactly who will go to the new Duma, and never be mistaken in the names?” ( I mean the material “See who came” to No. 30 of September 19 , 2016 ). It remains only to smile and, perhaps, envy the beautiful naivety of guests from those countries where the word “election” is a synonym for the words “intrigue”. We just have been living here for a long time, gentlemen, and we know something about our country. The dexterity, as they say, hands and no fraud.

Miracles on turns

In the case of elections to the parliament of the seventh convocation, fraud should be talked not without caution. Perhaps without fraud, it was still not. Two things were embarrassed-firstly, the turnout turned out to be much higher than the predicted, and it began to grow in the afternoon, although the most disciplined voters (pensioners, state employees, military) who make the turnout more often vote in the morning. Secondly, the result of “United Russia” on the lists was much better than expected: even the pro-government sociologists predicted 40–45%, and in the end the party in power received over 54%. Physicist Sergei Spilkin, who, during the protests of 2011, showed how mathematical methods allow to identify stuffing, in an interview with Novaya Gazeta claims that the EP “added” 12 million votes - almost half. NT sources, which had to face stuffing directly during the federal and regional campaigns of past years, say - this is simply impossible physically. Too grand scale. However, the mysterious growth of the turnout and the amazing success of the EP, together, leave a reason to think. However, political scientists from the pool of the propaganda television show have already explained that this is all the merit of the superpopular president: Vladimir Putin publicly supported United Russia and its leader Dmitry Medvedev, and the people listened to the word of the leader.

There is, however, a number of small strokes. In the Saratov region, where the election architect was at the head of the party’s list - the first deputy head of the presidential administration Vyacheslav Volodin, more than a hundred plots for the EP voted 62.2% of voters. The regional election committee announced that this is explainable "mathematical coincidence." In general, miracles happen. There were also enough reports of stuffing and carousels in separate areas. The observer who followed the elections in the Dagestan village of Andirei wrote on his blog: “According to official figures, 87% of voters voted in Dagestan, and 7% in our site.” Also, probably, a miracle.

The result of “United Russia” on the lists turned out to be much better than expected: even the pro -government sociologists predicted 40–45%, and as a result, the party of power received over 54%

Happy case

But this does not matter, because it seems that neither the party nor the voter is interested: the parties are in no hurry to sue with the winners, and tens and hundreds of thousands of voters do not go out on the square to protest against the results, as happened in the best years for the Russian opposition. Everything suits everyone, and to live with parliament, the legitimacy of which raises questions, is not used to us. In the new Duma, EP has a constitutional majority. And it remains only to understand whether such a goal was set by curators of the electoral process.

Experts interviewed by NT claim not. Other - conspiracyology. There are no urgent tasks, the solution of which would certainly require the Party of the authorities of more than two -thirds of the mandates. “They had the opportunity with 99.8 % of consolidated voting and without the constitutional majority - to carry out any solution, including the initiative process of constitutional reform,” says, for example, political analyst Alexander Morozov, referring to the experience of the sixth Duma. In addition, the factor of single -mandate cannot be overlooked - there were no surprises at all, a few weeks before the elections it was clear that the EP would take about two hundred mandates (she took it). A great addition to the list of result! Therefore, they increased not the interest of United Russia, but a turnout.

The turnout is generally an interesting story. On the one hand, there is a low turnout (if we assume that the elections are held honestly) is always in favor of power. And the system parties led the campaign as if they were afraid that too many voters would come to the sites. They did not burden citizens with information about the elections, in the TV show more willingly discussed the war in Syria and the US elections than their own election campaign. The NT correspondent voting in the suburbs, for example, did not immediately and, not without the help of the navigator, found his own site - there was simply no information about where to vote, there were simply no information on the information shields at the entrances. On the other hand, for some reason the forecast for a low turnout was worried about the authorities. Shortly before the election, the head of the CEC Ella Pamfilova even made the initiative to hold a referendum on the mandatory participation in the elections. And the inclusion of the president in the campaign mentioned above should have worked not only on the growth of the EP rating, but also to increase the turnout.

It is believed that the president is very uncomfortable in the world, where he gradually turns into an outcast from an equal interlocutor of other leaders of the first magnitude. The cure for stress is a visual demonstration that the nation is still ready to rally around its leader. This showed the chief viewer of all political performances in the country, increasing the turnout as they can. The viewer was grateful. “The voting results are also a reaction of our citizens to attempts to external pressure on Russia, threats, sanctions, and attempts to rock the situation in our country from the inside,” Putin said after the election at a meeting with the government. He told himself rather than members of the government.

And the constitutional majority of EP is just a bonus, an accidental addition to an inflated turnout. It seems to be not necessary, but so pleasant.

Personnel

Some of the post -sided shifts - both in the party in power and in the Duma - are already known. The Central Executive Committee of the EP will be headed, at the suggestion of Medvedev, Vladimir Burmatov. Burmatov is a man of ambiguous reputation, the Dissernet project convicted him in plagiarism of the candidate dissertation. But the real glory came to Burmatov even earlier - even when he was a functionary of the “Young Guard of United Russia”, when the future head of the party of the party recorded the process of extinguishing a forest fire on an iPhone, which himself arranged for the sake of staged personnel. Even in the party, not everyone perceives such an appointment with enthusiasm, but discipline is more important, there are no discussions.

When the question of the legitimacy of the elections is raised in the squares, the authorities can be repressed, but it may make concessions. And when the question of the legitimacy of the elections is raised on Facebook, you can limit yourself to the attack of the trolls in the comments

But the post of head of the State Duma Committee on Constitutional Legislation will most likely take Irina Yarovaya, although the laws, the adoption of which she initiated in the sixth Duma, was often called anti -constitutional. But here, critics do not have to make no more noise - September 20, the gratitude of Yarova personally announced Vladimir Putin for legislative activities. Vladimir Pligin, who led the committee in the parliament of the previous convocation, simply did not get into the seventh Duma.

And one more, perhaps the main news. Vyacheslav Volodin really goes to work from the presidential administration to the Duma, to the post of speaker. On Friday, the president invited the leaders of the parliamentary parties to agree with this candidate - although they, taking into account the number of mandates from the EP, are not required. Just the president - from the breed of polite people. However, there is no particular surprise here - the possibility of such a turn of the career of the head of the NT domestic policy department has already written (see No. 26–27 of August 29, 2016).

Good news

Thus, Volodin will control the Duma, which he himself chose. If you take it seriously to estimates of possible falsifications, I chose, forgetting about my own promises to make elections competitive, open and legitimate. And sacrificing at the same time the reputation of Ella Pamfilova in the eyes of the opposition. The appearance of Pampilova in the CEC was to be a guarantee of election honesty. It seems that they did without guarantees.

Why is such a decision possible? Because the Kremlin long before the election felt how weak the opposition was, and the prospects of protest are insignificant. A dull campaign, the inability not to unite, but at least to dilute the single -mandate in a number of promising districts and not to compete with each other, the Kremlin proved the correctness of the Kremlin. Legitimity matters if there is someone to raise the question of legitimacy. When the question of the legitimacy of the elections is posed in the squares, the authorities can be repressed, but it may make concessions (the return of single -mandate - just such a concession, by the way). And when the question of the legitimacy of the elections is posed on Facebook, you can limit yourself to the attack of the trolls in the comments. (Although other options by the Kremlin were considered - otherwise, what would the articles in Life about hundreds of thousands of Parnas militants, who will be bred by the blogger Vyacheslav Maltsev, and the stuffing that the money of Colonel Dmitry Zakharchenko is the “Black Cash desk” of the opposition for organizing the Maidan? Were considered, but did not come in handy).

And this, oddly enough, is good news. This means that an unsystematic opposition can, without clinging to the old, no longer needed brands, try to create a new movement - with young leaders and intelligible number of voters with goals. Observing along the way, the EP stamps the laws in the Duma, using the possibilities of the constitutional majority, and Grigory Yavlinsky is going to the presidential election - for the legal two percent of the vote.

Photo: Ekaterina Stucina/Press Service of the Government of the Russian Federation/TASS, Dmitry Azarov/Kommersant