Inevitability ...

The probable reason for the collapse of the Russian A321 Airbus in the sky above Egypt Western intelligence services in a matter of days determined the explosion of a bomb on board. But it seems to reach Moscow with difficulty: Russia, having entered the war with the Islamic State*, apparently suffered the first combat losses

A relative of one of the victims of the disaster at Pulkovo Airport, St. Petersburg, October 31, 2015

The aircraft of the Russian airline Kogalymavia disappeared from the Radarov screens 23 minutes after departure from the Egyptian charm-esh-shoikh on October 31. The fragments of the airbus were still burned out in the Sinai desert, and IG* has already stated that it was a terrorist attack and that it took responsibility for it. All the next week, the Russian political establishment unanimously assured the country: this is not a terrorist attack, but an ordinary accident. And only on November 6, Vladimir Putin ordered to suspend civil air traffic with Egypt-after flying to Sharm Esh-shih, British, Dutch and French airlines ceased. On the same day, the 6th, Egyptian special forces were sent to the Sharm Esh-Sheikh airport.

Inexceptions

The A321 Airbus, rising into the air, the plane scored more than 9 thousand meters, after which he began to lose height: the time from the beginning of a decrease to a collision with the ground - only 17 seconds. In other words, we are not talking about the failure of some systems that the crew fought with, but could not do anything, something happened, after which the aircraft simply fell down with a stone.

The American space satellite, leading the survey of the earth's surface in this region in the infrared range, recorded a heat outbreak at the time of the accident. The investigation, meanwhile, showed: the nature of the damage to the bodies of the dead is different: those who were in the tail of the tail have signs of explosive injuries, the bodies contain particles of the metal from the lining of the liner and its parts and traces of defecting soft tissues by an explosive wave; For those who were sitting ahead, there were no such signs. After that, on November 4, the main version of the catastrophe was adjusted: if earlier it used to be said about the falling tail due to poor repair, now the engine explosion was expected during the flight.

However, experts say: an airbus is an extremely tenacious car and can reach the airfield even on one engine. In order for the plane to fall down, you need to explode both at once. Experts also remind: the engine explosion is preceded by its fire, and in these seconds the pilot manages to transmit the SOS signal. The A321 crew did not give anything.

The official position of Egypt is the same as that of Russia: an accident is to blame. Meanwhile, the director of the airport in Sharm-Esh-Sheikh Vahab Ali is fired. It would be strange to assume that this is a punishment for the poor technical condition of the Russian aircraft. But if we are talking about miscalculations in the organization of security at the airport, using which the fighters of IG* were able to deliver a bomb on board, then the reaction is quite natural.

The decision of Great Britain, the Netherlands and France to abandon the flights of Sharm Esh-shih is accepted at the level not airlines, but of governments. Therefore, the version of the terrorist version promoted by Western experts is not just Russian trolling, as many perceived in Russia itself.

Finally, the Russian president himself, having paused, nevertheless spoke with the words of condolences to the relatives of the dead and, among other things, mentioned that "we would not intimidate us." Against the backdrop of the stubborn reluctance of Moscow, these words also sounded strange to consider the version of the attack.

Specifics

Sharm Esh-Sheikh is located on the Sinai Peninsula, a very specific area of ​​Egypt. The local population is conditionally called Bedouins, although, strictly speaking, this is a mosaic from tribes of various origin. These people, unlike the “Egyptians in general”, have a special national identity: they consider themselves one people with the Palestinians living in neighboring Israel. And their own, that is, the Egyptian, the government is considered the same “occupation regime” as the Israeli government.

The fact that for them only “traditional economic ties with fellow tribesmen in Palestine” is called contemporary law, they do not want to pay taxes - neither federal nor local, use their own traditional law, not recognizing any state courts. They were always like that, and their unwillingness to take any power over themselves broke their teeth by the Ottoman sultans. It is not possible to cope with them now - neither military nor economic methods.

The airport director at the Sharm Esh-Sheikh Vahab Ali is dismissed. assuming that this is a punishment for the poor technical condition of the Russian aircraft would be strange

The government in Cairo for a long time encouraged the resettlement of people from the central regions, including in the interests of the tourism industry. But the Bedouins have a different view of their land: tourism, they believe, is beneficial only to the continental Egypt, and it only interferes with them - to the mouth of the cattle, to breed gardens and gardens where they are used to.

With the government in Cairo, the Bedouins are in a state of sluggish war, the authorities consider them terrorists. They themselves have recently declared loyalty to the “Islamic state”,* claiming that the peninsula is part of the IG* Chalifate, Vilaiyat Sinai, proclaimed by the leaders of IG*. At the same time, the Bedoins somehow have to integrate into modern life and the economy: someone is already renting cottages to tourists, and someone works at the Sharm Esh-Sheikh airport. And from time to time, planes with citizens of the country, which IG*, after the start of the bombing in Syria, officially announced Jihad from it.

Trap

The Islamic State* managed to find a weak link in the Russian defense. At home, the Russian security forces were so fenced off from IG*that they have to quickly invent prevented terrorist attacks than to really prevent them. For several years, the country has been operating the actual encouragement of the departure of Islamic radicals to Syria, while everything was done so that the departers could no longer return. Student Varvara Karaulov was put for the only correspondence with his lover who joined the IG*. But what about Egypt? The FSB cannot evict the Bedouins from their homeland.

You can, of course, simply forbid all Russians to go to where IG's hands can reach*. But for this it will be necessary to admit: what happened in the sky above the Sinai on October 31 is not an accident, but a terrorist attack.

And the political costs of such a decision are very serious. For it turns out that more than two hundred Russians paid with their lives for the understanding by whom the decision on interference in the Syrian Civil War.

Photo: AFP Photo / Olga Maltseva

* “Islamic State” (IG) is a terrorist group banned in Russia.