WTO effect

Moscow and Minsk on the verge of discord

WTO effect. Moscow and Minsk - on the verge of serious discord. The relations of Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko were never particularly benevolent, but the new conflict can overshadow all previous trade and oil and gas “wars”. Russia's entry into the WTO puts the Belarusian economy on the line of a real disaster

Just President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, survived a serious personal drama: contrary to many comments, he was absolutely seriously ready to put the opposition into the parliament. And even, according to rumors, he gave the relevant instructions to the responsible employees of his administration. Lukashenko desperately needed to restore dialogue with Brussels about the participation of Belarus in European financial and credit programs, interrupted after the summer scandal due to the Swedish “plush landing”. A couple of political prisoners released plus a handful of opposition in parliament - and Europe is trembling, the Older desperately hoped. There was nothing to hope for more. Indeed, with the beginning of the third term, Vladimir Putin, and especially after joining the WTO, Moscow sharply tightened the tone of communication with Minsk on economic issues. To conduct bargaining according to the previous rules - loyalty in exchange for preferences - became more and more difficult. For example, earlier, Belarusian refineries, Russian oil products (in particular, gasoline) under the guise of solvents and diluents, were painlessly resold to the West - in order not to pay Russia export duties. This super -profitable business helped Belarus to bring to plus the balance of foreign trade for the first time in six years and to balance the budget. But in mid -September, Russia demanded to stop “smuggling at the state level” and deduct duties for sold solvents. Lukashenko had to accept these conditions. And the second blow to the Old Man was the opposition’s refusal to participate in the parliamentary elections on September 23, and as a result, a decisive failure to rejuvenate the EU and the US election. After that, the hopes of reconciliation with crediting Europe were instantly also disappeared. What now?
Not in a neighborly one
In the very near future-already in the winter-spring-the economy of Belarus will inevitably crack at the seams, independent Belarusian experts say. Economist, head of the analytical center "Strategy" Leonid Zaiko gives several facts in confirmation. Firstly, the revenues of state employees have recently increased by 15–20%, while GDP added only 2.5%. Belarusians immediately began to spend “extra” money on the purchase of currency. Due to the excitement demand with her, interruptions began to arise. This has already provoked panic among the population. Secondly, it is known that since 2013 the Government of Belarus will reduce financing of education and healthcare sectors. Schools will have to prepare for a reduction in the teacher's composition, hospitals - to the fact that patients will be put in a hospital much less often than now.
In addition, the authorities are preparing to raise the cost of utility bills several times. Like, paying for housing and communal services in Minsk about $ 50 per month, the population pays for no more than 15–20% of their cost. Lukashenko recently suggested: “ordinary” citizens will pay, as they paid before, and those to whom the income allow will pay 7-10 times more than the rest. At the end of September in Minsk, a fee for public transport was already raised by 13%.
The main source of problems is Russia. After all, it accounts for more than 50% of Belarusian exports, in addition, the eastern neighbor allows Minsk to earn on the resale of oil products to Europe. Now Russia has joined the WTO, and the partner of the Russian Federation in the Customs Union will inevitably have to face very serious problems.
The price of the Union
In the very near future, Russia will begin to cancel some of its “anti -crisis” duties, which it introduced to certain groups of goods back in 2009 to protect the internal manufacturer. Since Belarus is a partner of Russia in the Customs Union and has a single economic space with it, it will have to harmonize part of the customs tariffs and duties with it. This means that, having not yet entered the WTO, Belarus in the coming years is obliged to reduce the level of tariff protection on average from 10.7% to 8%, experts say. According to the Belarusian Foreign Ministry, for more than a thousand headings, Russia's tariff obligations to the WTO should be reduced by 7-15% compared to the rates of the Unified Customs Tariff of the Customs Union. Moreover, 50 positions of them are very sensitive to Minsk. Another 1,500 positions of Belarus, like Russia, will have to reduce their tariff rates by 4–6.5%. And here for Belarus, 160 products are sensitive.
“We will also be in the WTO tomorrow. Russia, this giant, was jerking there. What do you want to say: “We will fence off”? -I was indignant in a conversation with the agrarians of the Old Man during a trip to the dairy farms of the Minsk region. The Belarusian leader emphasized: “We have nothing to insure: we have no oil, nor natural gas, no gold.” “Here is our gold,” said Lukashenko, pointing to the milk farm.
Belarus has always protected the domestic market, due to this, state -owned enterprises balancing on the verge of profitability for many years and survived. Russia's entry into the WTO threatens with ruin at once by several key sectors of the Belarusian economy - from light industry to alcohol and industrial sector. First of all, the “WTO Effect” will feel the Belarusian truck. In the foreseeable perspective - manufacturers of pharmaceutical products, refrigerators, TVs, etc. True, a decrease in bets will not be simultaneous: this will occur for two to seven years.
Duties for agricultural machinery will decrease by an average of 5-10%. Independent experts say that Belarus can lose the Russian agricultural machinery market, which has been successfully working on. Indeed, now Russia does not have the right to prevent supplies from other countries, and since Belarusian products are uncompetitive, the industry is waiting for export revenue. This can lead to bankruptcy of agricultural machinery manufacturers of Belarus. "

Russia's entry into the WTO threatens with ruin at once by several key sectors of the Belarusian economy - from light industry to alcohol and industrial sector

“Already from August 22, the Belarusian Ministry of Education has stopped issuing one -time licenses for the import of alcohol products - now it will be much easier to import Russian vodka. In the Ministry of Trade, they do not hide that the issuance of one -time licenses was canceled precisely in connection with the entry of Russia to the WTO and the decision of the Customs Union Commission. Naturally, in the near future we can expect a sharp growth in the import of alcohol products. Russian Beer is already squeezing out local from the Belarusian market.
The meat and milk industry should also be prepared for work in the new conditions. Russia has undertaken obligations to limit the state support of agriculture, and within the framework of the EEP it will achieve similar restrictions for an ally. Otherwise, she will have to protect her market from Belarusian products by quoting supplies.

New crisis
Economist Leonid Zaiko says that the first six months or a year the effect of Russia's accession to the WTO will not be very noticeable. “The main changes will begin after 1.5–2 years. The competitiveness of our agricultural, sewing and other enterprises under the influx of cheaper goods to Russia will fall. This can lead to the bankruptcy of Belarusian manufacturers, ”the economist is sure.
An independent economist Leonid Zlotnikov also agrees with him: “The Belarusian economy is less competitive than the economy of Russia or Kazakhstan. Both taxes are higher, and the conditions for farms are worse. For example, individual entrepreneurs can hire only close relatives to work. There are no such restrictions in Russia and Kazakhstan. Because of all this, our products will be replaced from the Russian market. Not immediately, but for two or three years, foreign goods will be replaced by it. ”
Experts do not exclude that soon Belarus can leave the Customs Union with Russia. Unless, of course, the Kremlin’s functionaries “allow” ...