Putin's plan

“The line between cynicism and consistent realism is sometimes difficult to draw,” Nicolo Machiavelli wrote five hundred years ago. I wrote not about Putin, but about Cesare Borgia. No, no, I am not at all going to compare these two characters, one of whom has already acquired the status of a historical hero, and the other is just about to do so. Firstly, Borja has already died, but Putin is still alive (may he live forever!) and, therefore, has not yet lost the opportunity to change the perception of himself by both living contemporaries and bibliographers and historians of the future. And Borja ended his days as a condottiere for the King of Navarre, which definitely does not threaten Vladimir Vladimirovich - there is no such kingdom anymore. And it’s unlikely that Putin is attracted to military glory, even against the backdrop of idyllic Pyrenees landscapes. Besides, Borja was a cynical villain, and Putin is by no means a cynical villain. He is rather, to use the terminology of a sixteenth-century Florentine political scientist, a “consistent realist.”
What is the consistency of our president? First of all, in my opinion, in the fantastic ability to over and over again break the idea of ​​oneself as a consistent politician in the classical sense of the term. You don't have to look far for examples. After the media demarche of Viktor Cherkesov, the expert community began to speak in unison about the instrumental defeat of the powerful dignitary. They say that Putin will not tolerate “washing dirty linen in public.” And Putin indeed, during television communications with his subjects, showed clear displeasure with Cherkesov’s action. Albeit in a veiled form. There was talk of the possible imminent resignation of the anti-drug official. What is happening in reality? The President signs a decree on the creation of a new large specialized department with enormous powers and appoints Cherkesov as the head of this office, the rank and file of which are governors and even the director of the FSB himself. “Well, of course,” the experts exhale and shake their heads with understanding, “it is clear that Putin now, in anticipation of the decisions that he has to make, will not allow the strengthening of any one clan.”
It is difficult to disagree with such a statement. Now it would be nice to understand in anticipation of what decisions actually will be made. But this is precisely what we, mere mortals, cannot understand. Because if we understood this, there would be no talk of any “consistency” of Vladimir Putin. This is precisely Putin’s plan - so that at no point in his historical existence can we predict the next move. He sees this as the key to his stability and security. Surrounded by friends and enemies, it is impossible to do otherwise - if these friends and enemies predict the next steps of the president, they will be able to prepare for them. And then it’s a disaster, they’ll gobble it up and won’t choke. Before you can blink an eye, you are no longer a president (that is, an autocrat), but a jester in livery.
In the apt expression of one of my acquaintances, “inside the perimeter, Putin can do anything today.” Yes, perhaps so. Recent high-profile appointments and resignations have clearly confirmed this. I would just add “for now everything is possible.”
Well, therefore, the main question on the agenda today is another question: “What does President Putin WANT?” In other words, does he want to stay with us or is he going to leave us in the near future? However, you and I will not ask the president about this... But perhaps there is a person who is able not only to ask such a question, but also to count on a sincere answer. I would like to believe that there is such a person... So, I can just see Vladimir Putin lazily stretching and saying in response: “Who the hell knows, I haven’t decided yet.” And you know, friends, I am sure that this will be a sincere answer. Because if he had already decided, then it would be impossible to exclude the possibility that Putin would accidentally give himself away. And then - the collapse of Putin’s entire political strategy, Putin’s subtle plan, which he so scrupulously and consistently implements.
Vladimir Vladimirovich firmly believes: that guiding star that so miraculously turned the tide of his fate, gifted him with universal luck and constant success, and will not let him down at the next key moment, indicating the right decision at the “X” hour. The only solution that will allow him to be saved.