NATO will come from the north

Apparently, these days there will be what the Russian leadership was so afraid of. There will be a cardinal screening of the European security system. There is no doubt that in the near future Finland and Sweden will simultaneously apply for membership in NATO. The Finnish newspaper Helsingin Sanomat claims: "Both countries are working to ensure that their applications are submitted on the same day." Finnish president and prime minister must declare this on May 12. And three days after this, the Social-Democratic Party ruling in Sweden will announce the decision to join the Alliance.

The neutrality of these two states, which vigorously pierced it during all the vicissitudes and crises of more than forty years of the First Cold War, was one of the basics of the security of the continent. The leadership of both countries insists: their arrival in NATO is predetermined by a cardinal change in the military situation in Europe. The reason for the decision on the entry of two "state-state alliances in the North Atlantic Alliance is precisely said by a detailed 50-page ⁠ Lumocation of the Finnish government, dedicated to a change in the ⁠ syntilization in the field of security:“ Finland should be ready for the use of the threat of military force against it, as well as ⁠k political pressure. Finland is also preparing that military force can be applied exclusively against it. ”

As soon as the conversations about the accession of two countries to NATO began to go into the plane of real policy, Dmitry Medvedev, a former president, and now the deputy chairman of the Security Council, decisively, although a little inoperantly hastened to refute the connection between this decision in his Telegram channel and the “special military operation to protect the LPR and the DPR”: “There is no point in reasoning that if not a specialized specialized The operation in Ukraine, the question of the entry of these countries in NATO would not have arisen at all and the situation would be easier for Russia. This is wrong. Firstly, attempts to drag them to the alliance were made earlier. And, secondly, that the main thing is that we do not have territorial disputes with these countries, as with Ukraine. ”

It should be recognized that Dmitry Anatolyevich is absolutely right: the desire to join the NATO ranks arose in Helsinki and Stockholm not with the beginning of the Russian “special military operation to protect the LPR and the DPR”. The politicians and the public of Finland and Sweden seriously spoke about joining NATO in 2014, after the accession of Crimea and the beginning of hostilities in the Donbass. Then, when Ukrainian “territorial claims” arose, in Helsinki and Stockholm, it became more and more clearly giving itself a point of view, which consisted in the fact that a military-political situation is formed in the world, in which neutrality no longer guarantees safety. The discussion about joining NATO has been going on for the past eight years. Now she is close to completion. Most of the population of both countries is inclined to join the alliance. As for the political elite, it seems to be a consensus in her ranks. The seal reports that at the nearest NATO summit, which will take place in the summer in Madrid, Sweden and Finland will make a formal request for admission. The request, which will undoubtedly be satisfied in the shortest possible time. These countries have no need to prove that their institutions of power fully satisfy the requirements of the democratic state. In the same way, no one has doubts that the army of these countries fully comply with NATO standards and are promptly compatible with the alliance forces. As a result of such a high compatibility of spending on entry, they are unlikely to result in significant expenses. Most likely, analysts are right, who believe that as a result of joining NATO, Finland’s military costs will increase by only one and a half percent.

Now is the time to take a look at what Finns and the Swedes refuse what they can purchase and what they risk. The irony of history proved to be that Finland and Sweden decided to abandon the neutrality just at the moment when representatives of Moscow and Kyiv became, as they say, to discuss the model of the neutrality of Ukraine, which would arrange Russia. In this regard, the “Finnish model” was mentioned, in particular.

Sweden decided on sovereignty independently without external pressure, based on the country's internal development. At the beginning of the XIX century, King Charles XIV Johan (according to the same historical irony before the coronation, his name was Jean-Batist Bernadot, it was the famous Napoleonic Marshal, the hero of Iena and Austerlitz) decided to consolidate society, abandoning wars in principle. In 1814, immediately after a successful war with Norway, being a Crown Prince at that time, he announced the formal non -alignment of the country to military blocs and non -participation in European wars. Already in 1818, Charles XIV Johan first voiced the principles of non -alignment in the appeal to the RICDAGU. Sweden was finally established as a neutral state, when in 1834, at the time of the next exacerbation of relations between Great Britain and Russia, the king sent the corresponding memorandums to the governments of both countries, in which he announced the intention of his country to preserve neutrality in a possible conflict. And for 200 years, Sweden has not been involved in the wars, considering the invention of the divorce key to the main national achievement, and not glorious victories in bloody fighting at all. The country managed to avoid participation in world wars. In 1949, Riksdag formulated the essence of neutrality, which was defined as "the policy of non -alignment in military unions in peacetime and neutrality in the war." The Swedish security model included three conditions: non -alignment to military units, an independent defense system, and public support.

For Finland, which was a military ally of Hitler Germany, neutrality was the only salvation of statehood. On September 19, 1944, having successfully held secret negotiations with the USSR, the Finnish leaders announced the withdrawal from the war against the Soviet Union. And immediately the fighting against yesterday's allies-German began in order to disarm those parts of the Wehrmacht who were in Finland. After the war ended, Helsinki did everything possible so as not to annoy Moscow. President Yuho Paasikivi quite frankly declared “a legitimate, dictated security goals, justified by the interest of the USSR in the Finland direction”, trying to take into account Soviet interests, but also avoided situations in which the Soviet leadership could see in Finland the potential new member of the socialist launcher.

As a result, it was possible to achieve almost impossible. In the agreement “On Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance between the Union of the Soviet Socialist Republics and the Finnish Republic” signed in 1948 (which, as the name implies, was like an agreement on the military union) of the USSR indirectly recognized the right to neutrality, promising to take into account the “desire of Finland from the contradictions between the interests of the great powers”. This specific form of neutrality, which was guaranteed by only one country and which was built on the desire not to annoy Moscow, sometimes contemptuously called “Finlandization”. I must say that already in the 1960s the situation began to change significantly. The policy of neutrality has caused more and more trust and provided Finland International Authority. It is significant that the final act of a conference on security and cooperation in Europe was signed in Helsinki.

And now Helsinki and Stockholm intend to abandon the achievements of neutrality, since, in their opinion, in the current conditions, neutrality does not provide more safety. The authors of the already mentioned report of the Finnish government see the way out just in the entry into NATO: “For Finland, the most significant effect of its possible NATO membership will be that it will become part of the collective defense of NATO and will be covered by security guarantees fixed in Article 5. The restraints of the defense (from aggression. - A. G. ) will be much stronger than at present, since it would be based on, since it would be based on the possibilities of the entire North Atlantic Union. If Finland ... will become the object of the use of military force, it would be protected with the support of the North Atlantic Union based on pre -prepared and worked out collective defense mechanisms. ”

It is quite obvious that the entry of Finland and Sweden in NATO creates Russia, which entered into a period of direct military confrontation with the West, very serious strategic problems. Let us not forget that after the start of the “special military operation to protect the DPR and LPR”, the North Atlantic Alliance decided to place 40 thousand military personnel directly subordinate to the command of the alliance on its eastern flank, which indicates a high degree of readiness of these troops. As a rule, the military formations of the NATO countries are subordinate to their national command and only through them already - the Supreme Command of NATO in Mons.

Finland and Sweden can make a significant contribution to the strengthening of the military potential of the alliance. The Finnish army is based on an appeal. With the total number of armed forces of 22,000 military personnel, 16,500 of them are conscripts. Those who served are credited to the reserve of the first stage, in which the service has been completed in the past five years. Then they move into the reserve of the second category. So there is an accumulation of a mob cut. According to the calculations of the Finnish military, in the event of a war, about 300 thousand people will be provided with the necessary weapons under the gun. With the total population of 5 million, such a readiness for mass mobilization does not look excessive precautions. Unlike Finland, neighboring Sweden practically abolished military service. In 2010, she stopped the call, but in 2017, due to the complicated international situation, resumed it. But even now the number of conscripts does not exceed four thousand. At the same time, 60 thousand military professionals in the armed forces, the number of which should increase to 90 thousand by 2025. A significant factor is the military-industrial complex, one of the most powerful in the world. Sweden provides its military for almost the entire spectrum of modern weapons. According to experts, it is the Swedish armed forces due to training and equipment that are promptly compatible with the American army.

At the same time, after Finland entered NATO, the line of direct contact of the Russian army and the alliance troops lengthens by 1200 kilometers. If we keep in mind the fact that the NATO in their planning is extremely responsible for ensuring the safety of their members (recall the multinational battalions located in the Baltic and Poland countries, the patrol of the airspace of these countries, about the American mechanized brigade deployed on the rotational basis in the same states), does not have to be in charge that the alliance will be seriously engaged in strengthening the defense of defense Finland and Sweden. Only the Finnish and Swedish armies are not enough for this. Therefore, in these countries either on a permanent, or on a rotational basis, but contingents from other NATO states will certainly appear. According to the already prevailing practice, Russia must be announced about countermeasures, declare the placement of new formations. However, it is not very clear where they come from. Russia continues to fall into a demographic hole. At the same time, it is obvious that the “special operation” in Ukraine, as well as an intensifying confrontation on the border with the Baltic countries, will require all new human resources. Yes, and material too.

So far, in the Kremlin, judging by the Medvedev’s entry, it is necessary to declare that the entry into the NATO of Finland and Sweden will inevitably lead to the increase in the Russian nuclear forces: “The Baltic will no longer be able to talk about any miraculous status of the Baltic - the balance should be restored.” It is difficult to say which "nuclear status" has in mind such a high -ranking official. If someone had the idea of ​​declaring the Baltic region by a nuclear zone, then this would be an exclusively propaganda action. Baltic is simply stuffed with nuclear weapons. In the Kaliningrad region, Russian Iskander-M Russian missile systems are deployed, American tactical nuclear bombs were stored in Germany. And even if nuclear weapons are not placed in Finland and Sweden, in Russian military logic, only the probability of this allows this to threaten two countries with nuclear “retaliation”.

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