Belarusian rebus

So, Gazprom again (for the umpteenth time in recent years?) announced that it would raise the price of gas sold to Belarus. Today the “brotherly price” is $46 per 1000 cubic meters. As is known, gas is sold to Europe for $230. They intend to demand 145-150 dollars from Belarus.

Gazprom’s formal goal is to use this blackmail to finally wrest control over Beltransgaz, the state gas company of Belarus, from the “father”, which, by the way, Lukashenko promised a thousand times to give to Gazprom. Trade, you have to understand, is simple: you give us Beltransgaz, and we give you the old price for it (the only thing is that Beltransgaz will go away, and the price can be raised in a year or two!).

But the media claim that the matter is not really about Beltransgaz (especially since after the gas pipeline is laid along the bottom of the Baltic Sea, the importance of this gas transportation company will sharply decrease). A more compelling motive for the Kremlin may be “forced marriage”: Lukashenko will be forced to “give up Belarus for debts.”

This whole story has many aspects.

Why does Russia need to drag Belarus down the aisle by the braid?

How will the “father” and the rest of the inhabitants of Belarus behave?

“What will Princess Marya Aleksevna say” from the European Union and the USA?

The last question is quite funny. Putin is finishing off “the last dictator in Europe” - so that’s good? But the last dictator is being finished off by none other than PUTIN - so that’s bad?

The European Union has made a lot of efforts to bring down Lukashenko. But in the end it may turn out that they will dump him... straight into the hands of Russia! When Russia put pressure on Ukraine in the same way, Ukraine did not receive any real help (economic, political) from Europe (“what, son, did your Poles help you?!”), but at least there was at least noble European indignation . How do you want me to be now? Putin is financing the “last dictatorship” - bad, refusing to finance - even worse! Morally support Lukashenko?! Unthinkable. “Give to be eaten”?! Impossible. We, the EU, are “for” independent Belarus, but against its president?! Dialectics, however...

Yes, Europe's stupid position...

Moreover, if Russia swallows Belarus, it will ultimately make a colossal gift to Europe. Indeed.

Firstly, Europe will not forget this “Anschluss” to Putin. This will be the first example of a “hostile takeover” on European territory since 1945 (and the European media will try to give a platform to those very real forces in Belarus who will shout specifically about “annexation”, “Anschluss”, etc.).

Secondly, not just an “Anschluss”, but a GAS ANSCHLUS. Gazprom will strike itself with its own pipe (more precisely, in this case the Kremlin will strike Gazprom). “Gazprom is an instrument of annexation”: could there be a better slogan for developing cooperation with Europe?

Thirdly, all those tender feelings that Europe (and the USA) had for the “father”, automatically - and with great pleasure! - will be transferred to its winner. Putin desperately needs “Old Man” as a buffer, as a background against which Putin looks “far from the worst in Europe.” As soon as Lukashenko is gone, the challenge prize “sick man of Europe” will go to Putin. A united White-Russia will be portrayed by Western media simply as “greater Belarus.” Russia will swallow Belarus - and the whole of Europe will smell strongly of “father”!

So, the “Eurohawks” would receive from Moscow TRUMPS that they dare not even dream of. Russia, having absorbed Belarus, is finally coming into direct contact with NATO (what all the patriots have been frightening us for so long!) - and this contact does not promise anything pleasant for Russia. Of course, we are not talking about “military confrontation,” but the most acute political confrontation in Russia is guaranteed. I'm not even talking about such little things as the final collapse of the CIS, like the harsh signal that Moscow sends to Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia - to NATO, to NATO, to NATO NON-MIND-LEN!!!

So: the reputation of a “dry aggressor”, the title of “the last dictator of Europe” inherited from the “father”, a pig planted on Gazprom, a very real prospect of the Iron Curtain and the Cold War. Is Belarus really that valuable to Russia? Is Minsk worth mass?

And “a couple of trifles.”

Dad is stubborn. He will not just fight for his life to the last. He can unite on the basis of the struggle “for national independence” with his today’s worst enemies - the Belarusian nationalists. No, they will not go into the forests (“My Motherland, Belarus! Songs of partisans, pine trees and fog...”), but a powerful separatist movement, with the support of Europe and Russia, is guaranteed.

But what about the majority of citizens of Belarus?

It is unlikely that they will be fed up with the sentimental ideas of the “Slavic brotherhood” and they are unlikely to go crazy with sentimental indignation over the “loss of independence.” No, everything is much simpler and more natural: the fish looks where it is deeper, and the person looks where it is better. Russia wants the loyal attitude of 10 million Belarusians? So buy it!

If Moscow can provide a higher standard of living than what exists in Belarus today, the majority of the population will not support the separatists. If he fails, he will support. And buying the favor of 10 million people is truly an expensive pleasure!

I’m not talking about the obvious minor overhead costs - the aggravation of relations with many other republics within the Russian Federation, which will jealously watch all the real and exaggerated privileges that Belarus will receive. Well, we won’t develop the topic of the fantastic (totally fantastic?) bloc “Chechen separatists - Belarusian separatists”.

By the way, all of the above are FLOWERS. And everything will be limited to flowers only if the unification itself takes place in the only possible form, that is, if the Russian Federation accepts Belarus as another republic, along with Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, etc. If the officially uncanceled idea of ​​“a single state consisting of TWO EQUAL states” comes into play again, then here are the BERRIES waiting for us. Chaos, madhouse, USSR-1991... However, the political scientist has nothing to comment on here. This is a topic only for a psychiatrist... But still, hopefully, it won’t come to that. Today it is clear: if there is a unification, then only on the basis of ABSORPTION. It may be stupid, harmful, ridiculous, but at least it is within the medical norm...

So. WHY DOES PUTIN NEED ALL THIS HEADACHE?

Does he not see such obvious consequences? Well, no need to insult the president. Don't love him - your sacred right. But don’t consider him stupider than yourself - he gave no reason for this. And if Putin foresees all this (and probably much more), then again - WHY?!

It seems to me that three more or less reasonable answers are possible.

First. Nothing will happen. Another false alarm, scam, some kind of PR reason, etc. It is not entirely clear who needs this PR today and why, but, in general, this does not matter much. PR - and PR, business... Well, our brother has a reason to squeeze out a couple of articles... This option, in my opinion, is the most likely, the chances are a good 70%.

Second. The only goal is to solve purely specific economic problems. Pay with Beltransgaz and sleep peacefully. And, for God’s sake, keep your sovereignty to yourself - no one is going to grab or swallow this hot potato! I'll give you another 25% for this option.

Third. There WILL BE a real unification. No matter what. FOR WHAT? In my opinion, THIS PRICE can only be paid FOR ONE TERM - FOR THE THIRD TERM. New state, new constitution, third term. The probability of such a move is, say, 1%. Although here, to be honest, it’s also strange. What, you can’t buy a third term at a lower price? In the end, there is a mechanism for introducing amendments to the Constitution of the Russian Federation - and without any miracles with unification.

But maybe the logic “if you take your head off, you don’t cry over your hair” will work here? Changing the Constitution, a third term, etc. will most likely cause such a crisis in relations with the West, such a confrontation that the “increase of Belarus” will change little. So bad - and so bad. But for internal use, for the majority of the Russian population, this association, according to the Kremlin political strategists, may turn out to be a very tasty virtual dish. “Finally, we were given the order to advance, to collect our inches and crumbs! But we remember how the Sun went backwards and almost rose in the East...”

And this “breakthrough” is more than enough for the people, in a fit of enthusiasm, to vote for the “gathering of Russian lands” and for their Gatherer. The only problem is that people are like this: today they voted “with tears in their eyes,” and tomorrow they can say: “What are we doing?!” We are nothing. They didn’t warn us about the consequences...”

And Putin probably takes this into account too.

And one last thing. Let me! - the attentive reader will say. So this means: 70% probability of “empty anxiety”, 25% of “pure economics”, 1% of “fantastic unification”. Total – 96%. Well, what is another 4%?

And this is the probability of something like this, a solution to some kind of problem that I cannot even theoretically imagine.