Year of the Speculator

The first persons of the state in public speeches of recent weeks have persistently inspired us with the idea that all the worst in the economy is behind us. Government forecasters are rushing to back up this rhetoric with a favorable figure.

The Ministry of Economic Development at the very end of last year revised its forecast for GDP growth in 2010 from 1.6% (which is included in the federal budget) to 3.1%. And in case of effective implementation of anti-crisis and modernization measures, improvement of the foreign economic situation, the government promises even 3.5% growth. Among the analysts of various companies, a kind of competition in optimism has begun: who will offer an even higher figure for economic growth for the year (the “leaders” have already reached 7%). In general, euphoria. Have we really passed the crisis? To give a clear answer to this question, it is necessary once again to return to the reasons for its occurrence in Russia. If they are not analyzed, then a new surge, wave, coil - call it what you want - is only a matter of time.

The current crisis is the collapse of the speculative economic model that has developed in the country, when the main generator of growth is the desire not to produce anything, but to buy goods or assets for subsequent resale. As a result, investments in securities grew many times faster than investments in fixed capital, in the development and renewal of fixed assets. As a result, stock quotes and oil futures have increasingly become a "virtual reality" that has little to do with reality. This speculative overbought of assets eventually led to the collapse of the markets and the collapse of the real sector of the economy.

Of course, this is not only a Russian problem. However, if in most countries there is at least a true awareness of the danger and even something is being done (for example, in China, from January 1, 2010, banks are prohibited from paying commissions to real estate agents for attracting mortgage lending customers), then in Russia this is not yet the case. . During the crisis year, the government did not even try to undermine the foundations of the speculative economic model.

As proof of this thesis, it is enough to look at the dynamics of wholesale sales in trade. Indeed, according to the definition of Rosstat, wholesale trade is the resale of goods, that is, nothing more than a legalized form of speculation. Even if a trader purchases one unit of goods for subsequent resale, this transaction should be recorded in the statistical data as a wholesale trade.

So, in January-September 2009, wholesale sales, for example, of salt increased by almost 7 times compared to the corresponding period of 2008, vegetable oil - by 2.5 times, pasta - by 50%, meat - by almost 37%... Despite the fact that retail sales of almost all goods fell. And each resale is a new added value, a small “bubble” that merchants inflated for the consumer.

Having pumped various industries with budget money during the acute crisis period and without trying to change the model of their functioning, the government, in essence, laid a mine under the economic field - and, perhaps, not such a delayed action.

The entrenched speculativeness of the modern model of Russia's economic development is the main danger of 2010. Even if GDP growth is recorded as a result of it (according to our estimates, a decline of 2-4%) is expected, it cannot be long-term and sustainable.