Grigory Yudin: Lukashenko's experiment

Lukashenka sets up an interesting experiment - he opens the project "military junta in the very center of Europe." We see that the experiment went well

Last summer it occurred to me that Lukashenka is setting up an interesting experiment - opening a project "military junta in the very center of Europe." Now we see that the experiment went well. For some time, the Europeans thought that they could simply not recognize him as president and live on as they lived. And he, it turns out, took it seriously - since no one recognizes him, then it turns out that now everything is possible for him. It was necessary to think one step ahead when they did not recognize.

Europe cannot exist with Belarus poked out in the center. Those who use the word "sovereignty" in the sense that "don't meddle in our affairs, we will kill whoever we want and won't meddle in yours" simply do not understand how sovereignty works. Hans Kelsen wrote that sovereignty has an internal tendency to expand, it is never enough. All this air war with the interception of aircraft, counter boycotts, removal of flags, insults and humiliations - this is “sovereignty”. “Our business” ends where we can reach, and it works both ways.

But that's half the story. The second half is that for some reason it is customary for us to believe that Lukashenka depends on Putin. However, the whole last year shows that everything is just the opposite and Lukashenka is very successfully manipulating Putin. Putin has an image of a cold-blooded politician who is hard to impose anything on. But everything looks like Lukashenka has found his weak point.

If it is really true that Putin reads any significant events only in the plot “The West is against me”, then Lukashenka has complete carte blanche for any trick that is placed in the frame “The West wants to overthrow me, and I defend Smolensk.” As soon as Lukashenka fit into this frame last summer, the Kremlin began to support him in the most insane and gopnicheskie actions (except, perhaps, Nick and Mike - although even here it was clear how everything in Russia creaked). Starting with shootings in the streets, continuing with the liquidation of the absolutely pro-Russian opposition, special operations in Moscow, the rejection of Russian citizens, and now ending with the declaration of an air war on France (why? what does Russia have to do with it?).

There is no limit to these actions - Lukashenka's legitimacy is not increasing, he needs to unwind the reaction, and then he will only destroy everything around him more strongly. You can, of course, argue that “this is all for the time being, and in general Lukashenka becomes dependent” - however, he should have been completely “addicted” a long time ago. It is easier to admit the obvious: Lukashenka, with his constant radicalization, takes Putin hostage and reliably owns the initiative. So far, Belarus is gradually annexing Russia.

Who can guarantee that the Ryanair pilots did not save their passengers from death? What, Lukashenka would not dare to shoot down a plane over Lida and then tell that there was a bomb there, and not start an international investigation? And why? He is unrecognized, he does not owe anything to anyone. What, would that be casus belli? So this would immediately solve all problems with legitimacy for Lukashenka - he becomes a wartime dictator, and militarily he is invulnerable, he has nuclear weapons behind him. What, Putin would not go for it? And what if it had been filed as a provocation by NATO on the territory of an allied state?

Usually, the will to war is still required on both sides to start a war. On the one hand, it already exists - Putin passionately demands respect and recognition, and Lukashenka is ready to organize a case for him so that the price of recognition is war. On the other hand, it has not yet happened - although some actions and statements of the Baltic states in recent days show that things have moved forward. No matter how Lukashenka takes care of this, too, and we did not soon see an incident on the Polish border.

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