Road to nowhere

On November 11, the Spanish government appealed to the Constitutional Court (CC) of the country against the decision of the Catalan Parliament to start the process of gaining independence.

The decision of the regional parliament was appealed as being contrary to the Spanish constitution, which does not allow secession from the state of its individual regions. The departure of Catalonia may mean for Spain not only the loss of the most industrialized region, it is a “bad example” for other areas where separatist influence is evident: the Basque Country, Galicia, Valencia, Navarre, Aragon, the Canary Islands and Andalusia. The "Balkanization" of Spain is assessed by observers as a very real threat.

The Constitutional Court accepted the government's complaint for consideration. This means that the Catalan resolution is automatically "frozen" and supporters of Catalan independence cannot begin to implement their priority plans - to create their own tax department and social insurance system.

But what happens if the supporters of Catalan independence ignore the decision of the Constitutional Court, as, in fact, they promised to do? Then the Spanish government has another trump card. This is article 155 of the constitution. It provides for the suspension of the powers of all regional self-government bodies and the introduction of direct rule from the center, that is, from Madrid.

And finally, the most pressing question that the Spaniards are asking themselves today: will the central government use force - the police or the troops - to stop the supporters of independence if they do not comply with either the Constitutional Court or Article 155? And in general, to what extent is a forceful solution possible in today's liberal Europe?

The government - both Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and the power ministers - have not yet answered this question directly. They only say that they are ready to use "all legal measures" in order to ensure the integrity of state borders.

Supporters of a united Spain have certain reasons for optimism. First, the position of the separatists is not so strong. Many Catalans - statistics say that even more than half - are against independence. Not everyone believes in classic tales like “the center is robbing us” or “without Spain, everyone will be able to drive a Mercedes”. In addition, the separatist alliance in the local parliament - 72 deputies out of 135 - is too fragile. It consists of bourgeois liberals and ultra-left "anti-capitalists". In recent days, they have not been able to agree on a candidate for the post of head of the region.

Secondly, the big capital involved in the region, both banking and industrial, is categorically against independence and even threatens to leave the region. After secession, Catalonia, according to experts, will turn into an isolated marginal state. It will automatically find itself outside the European Union, losing the opportunity to be financed from the European Central Bank and the privilege to sell its goods in the EU countries. Given the chance of such a development of events, the international rating agency Fitch assigned Catalonia's debt obligations a "junk" rating last Thursday. Most likely, the Spanish market, where more than half of their goods are now sold, will also be closed to the Catalans. In such a case, the population will certainly not be up to the Mercedes ...