Financial putsch

Financiers, investors and politicians on both sides of the ocean waited with bated breath for the results of the Merkozi dinner, which took place at the Elysee Palace on December 5th. I had to eat under the threat of rating agencies to deprive both countries of the AAA rating, the highest of all possible. Nevertheless, Angela Merkel liked the dinner, and Nicolas Sarkozy also smiled contentedly: agreed!
The world media immediately trumpeted that the long-awaited agreement had finally been found and the light at the end of the crisis had dawned. But let's take a closer look at the results. On the one hand, the lunch menu at the Elysee Palace is very much in common with the Maastricht Treaty: there are both national budget deficits and external debt ... Only now the EU countries will be required to write down the “golden rule” in their legislation, limiting budget spending, and there will be disobedient punish.
But all these restrictions have been in effect since 1993! What prevented earlier to strictly threaten violators? In addition, the dinner arrangements of the two leaders are not at all a decree for the rest: you still need to convince the neighbors of the need to observe the "golden rules", and they, in turn, will have to pass the law through the parliaments.
"For dessert" in Paris, it was announced the creation of a European stabilization mechanism. The main secret of its functioning is that to unlock the funds, the consent of not the entire EU, but only countries representing 85% of European GDP will now be required. Simply put, Germany and France decided to pull off a small coup in the financial system of the EU and from now on, together, without being distracted by the opinion of their "little neighbors", decide who to give money to and who not to give.
The main "dish" was supposed to be an agreement on the degree of intervention of the European Central Bank. As you know, Nicolas Sarkozy insists on a greater role for him, and Angela Merkel agrees with the new director of the Central Bank, Italian Mario Draghi, who stands for "homeopathic influence", read - to help selectively and not too much. However, neither Merkel nor Sarkozy said a word about Draghi's office. Apparently, this part of the dinner was not successful at all.
Meanwhile, the EU is covered not only by the wave of the euro crisis. The liquidity of the banking system is under threat. Almost all European banks found themselves in a very difficult situation. The results of stress tests conducted by the European Banking Authority showed that 70 major EU banks in 2012 will need €106 billion for refinancing, including €12 billion for German banks.
Some try to prevent government intervention. For example, Commerz-Bank, the second largest bank in Germany, announced the repurchase of its bonds in the amount of €600 million. The queue is behind the rest, but most of the money has nowhere to get it from. What does it mean? That part of the banks will be nationalized (the same Commerce Bank is 25% owned by the state, which saved it from bankruptcy in 2008). And everyone will be forced to tighten their credit policy and not give more money to everyone in a row, and if they do, then at higher interest than before. And at the very moment when governments, companies and citizens need to refinance old debts, not to mention the fact that loans are the lubricating oil of the economic machine. The interbank market is already in a state of apathy, it will become more difficult to borrow on the side, so there is practically no instrument left except for the Central Bank, but no agreement was reached on its role over dinner at the Elysee Palace.
So the cabbage was not bad, but the most important dish of Merkozi was never tasted. Europe is increasingly entering the spiral of the deepest economic crisis that threatens to destroy the EU, and its leadership, apart from assurances of mutual sympathy, cannot boast of anything in front of the cameras.